January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Same for Baltimore area or a little more?

I do the same for Bmore tbh...better shot at higher tho

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

People never learn that if it looks good at day 5 for you then you probably aren’t going to be the jackpot by game time. 

Hey could be worse. We could be North Carolina. They're getting a major rug pull on this one.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. 

Listen I wasn't even looking for two feet. But I sure as heck wanted to least try to make a run at double digits for the first time--it sucks because you'd think a simple SS wave coming right at us would deliver...but then we get unlucky with a NS complication, and you wonder if it continues to get trimmed back over the next 48 hours.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

They're getting a major rug pull on this one.

Honestly they've had it too good for too long. It's their turn to get a screw job.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But I sure as heck wanted to least try to make a run at double digits for the first time

That's still in play from some of the responses I got.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not to trigger @mattie g but I know our climo. Gonna hedge the snow a little low. We'll sleet earlier than we want.

I get that, but I still think you're being overly pessimistic.  We usually don't have this kind of setup leading into a storm.  We'll make at least 7, mark my words! 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Honestly they've had it too good for too long. It's their turn to get a screw job.

Never dance on the grave of a snow lover. It invites back luck for you.

Really impressive temp drop over the next 24 hours. It's amazing to realize that today might be the warmest day for the rest of the month.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

People never learn that if it looks good at day 5 for you then you probably aren’t going to be the jackpot by game time. 

Usually is the last 48hrs it will shift nw if it’s going to. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agree CAPE. I've been looking close at the soundings on the euro for the last 3 days and the ZR doesn't add up. Even when at thin layer around 700mb is +1 with everything else well below and a surface of 20 degrees, the euro is showing zr. That's a classic (easy) sleet sounding. Imho, the euro is missing and/or undoing the sleet amounts by a lot. 

Tomer Burg posted elsewhere that it apparently is a know euro problem with ZR vs sleet. I think very little ZR for the metro areas. Maybe FZDZ at the very end.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hey could be worse. We could be North Carolina. They're getting a major rug pull on this one.

I knew they weren’t getting 3 feet of snow. That like never happens. Usually ends up over us or north 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Never dance on the grave of a snow lover. It invites back luck for you.

Really impressive temp drop over the next 24 hours. It's amazing to realize that today might be the warmest day for the rest of the month.

It's schadenfreude for all the times the Carolinas scored and we've gotten table scraps or nothing at all over the past decade. Remember December 2018?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I think we should change the name of this thread to "Miracle on Ice"!!   (For those old enough to remember the 1980 Winter Olympics when the USA hockey team upset the Soviets and won the gold medal, you'll get the reference!)

[psuhoffman]

I used the EPS to create this map using the 25% and 75% snowfall output 

[pazzo83]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hey could be worse. We could be North Carolina. They're getting a major rug pull on this one.

yeah and the rug pull is - you get an inch of ice!  Have fun!

[psuhoffman]

The EPS 25-75% doesn't look far off from what @MillvilleWx has been saying all along 

ETA: Keep in mind this is pure 10-1 so in the NW zones these numbers would be underdone a little 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I used the EPS to create this map using the 25% and 75% snowfall output 

That’s almost exactly what I’ve had in my mind. I told family and neighbors (HoCo and HarCo) 8-14” plus sleet this morning. I guess I’d knock 1-2” off that based on 12z, but no reason to adjust for every model run at this point . Let’s see where we are after tomorrows 12z.

[TSSN+]

All the colors! 
 

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Never dance on the grave of a snow lover. It invites back luck for you.

Really impressive temp drop over the next 24 hours. It's amazing to realize that today might be the warmest day for the rest of the month.

Perhaps 25 degrees warmer right now than it will be at any point starting Friday night through January. That’s kind of mind blowing.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I used the EPS to create this map using the 25% and 75% snowfall output 

Fingers crossed for 10" around Baltimore. So close to the 8-13 line so I'll take my chances.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS 25-75% doesn't look far off from what @MillvilleWx has been saying all along 

ETA: Keep in mind this is pure 10-1 so in the NW zones these numbers would be underdone a little 

It looks very reasonable psu, thanks for throwing that out there.  More or less in line with my thoughts (focusing on the DC metro).  Not sure if you included the sleet bomb in on that total, but potential to dump a couple inches of sleet on that as well.

[jayyy]

I used the EPS to create this map using the 25% and 75% snowfall output 

Appreciate you cutting that 10-14 contour over my house lol

Solid map I’d say. In line with what I’m thinking generally too

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I used the EPS to create this map using the 25% and 75% snowfall output 

I’m right on the navy blue line just NW of IAD, and 7-12” is consistent with what I was thinking. 

[TSSN+]

CTP snow map is ridiculous but hey I’ll enjoy it for now till it drops like 8” later lol 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

All the colors! 
 

That's got to be one of the (maybe THE) most expansive areas of winter storm watches/warnings I've seen.  And some of the watches/warnings are actually "hidden" beneath the cold weather advisory color (light blue, e.g., in KS, MO, IL, IN, OH, PA, etc.).

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

CTP snow map is ridiculous but hey I’ll enjoy it for now till it drops like 8” later lol 

LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see

[WxUSAF]

LWX just updated event total snow. 10” DC, 11” Baltimore, 11” CHO, 9” EZF, 14” FDK and HGR.

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see

Must be riding the gfs haha 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see

Slightly above my ceiling. Please hold, but I've seen LWX drop the ball before (February 2024 comes to mind)

[T. August]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Must be riding the gfs haha 

I believe they lean on the NBM heavily especially 3 days out. I’m sure @high risk can correct me lol

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Must be riding the gfs haha 

I'd love to see the GFS be right...  We wouldn't know what model to trust for the next storm lol