January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS is a later changeover and a change back to snow.  Weaker and further south primary low.  At 84 hours Euro has 1002 in TN and GFS has 1006 on the Georgia/Alabama border.  

[hstorm]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like the GFS also has a few tenths more snow after 9z.

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z Monday heavy non snow precip still going on 

Looking at soundings and the 700/850 temp maps, the margins are SUPER close. Both look OK for DC, but again...really fine margins.

[baltosquid]

Seems like a theme of 12z so far has been flattening the flow over the central CONUS. Nice because it should help with keeping the primary from rushing north so much. Hopefully it is a trend.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

mod to heavier precip would be I would think...light stuff mix but who cares. We know the drill 

I hope the GFS is right, but we know it tends to be too cold/south.  And because its on it's own, I don't have a lot of confidence in it.  But it truly is the best case scenario

[NorthArlington101]

Warmest surface temps I can find. No matter what Ptype, this is gonna be pretty sick at least. Really hard to do this around here. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I stay all snow on the 12z GFS. Too bad it's an outlier, but this -3 AO within days of the coldest time of year has to hold some cold I would think. 

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models.  First comes through cold and all snow.  Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent.  

00Z Monday DCA

Yup...this is what I was getting at just above. Even just slightly west of the Beltway is a *touch* better.

[SnowenOutThere]

I think the big story of the GFS run is how good that initial thump of snow is. That is how we all win from me to Bob Chill to PSU.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Only concern with the de amp is it could mess up our initial thump if things go really poorly but that’s probably an irrational fear. 

I'm talking very modest. Qpf distribution is really locking in right now and it's a massive swath. I don't see much of a chance for that to fall apart at this point. 

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob ChillGFS showing the death band as well at hr 66 running pretty much the entirety of the 460 corridor. Interesting trend to say the least.

The hours before the flip to sleet are almost always wild with WAA snows. Giant flakes and low vis heavies commonly precede the sandstorm. I'm pretty excited for that part. I want the gfs to be right so bad... but until the euro ticks that direction it feels like fools gold 

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I hope the GFS is right, but we know it tends to be too cold/south.  And because its on it's own, I don't have a lot of confidence in it.  But it truly is the best case scenario

For last week's storm, GFS was the model to overamplify around 60-90 hours out only to scale back some as we got closer versus Euro and CMC were way less diggy with the shortwave. A blend sounds about right

[osfan24]

Somehow manage to stay all snow on GFS. Actually surprised totals aren’t higher with the fluff and duration. Snows on some for 36ish hours. Guess the colder solution also packs less of a punch but seems like a worthy trade-off. 

[ErinInTheSky]

GFS looks beautiful, but am I wrong to note that every time we have a setup like this, the Euro and NAM end up modeling the rain/sleet line way better than the GFS? Feels like the GFS always wants to make everything "all snow" in these kinds of setups and it almost always fails.

[das]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Single digits for most of Delmarva is nuts.

Surrounded by 70+% open water, albeit running cooler than normal.  Incredible.  I wonder if the industrial chicken houses there even have insulation.

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

GFS looks beautiful, but am I wrong to note that every time we have a setup like this, the Euro and NAM end up modeling the rain/sleet line way better than the GFS? Feels like the GFS always wants to make everything "all snow" in these kinds of setups and it almost always fails.

The December 26th storm did this. The NAM nailed the sleet in central Jersey when GFS was saying snow. The mix line always tends to punch north faster and further than what the GFS says. 

[NorthArlington101]

At minimum all of this is snow on the GFS AI:

Most of us lose 700mb by a hair between 72-78... where totals jump to this. Lot of sleet after.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

CMC appears to nod to the GFS with a slightly weaker primary and the mix line not making it as far north....still mixes for all of us though.  

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

At minimum all of this is snow on the GFS AI:

Most of us lose 700mb by a hair between 72-78... where totals jump to this. Lot of sleet after.

Yeah this is not a small difference between the AIGFS and GFS. Latter is way better for us.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope the GFS is right, but we know it tends to be too cold/south.  And because its on it's own, I don't have a lot of confidence in it.  But it truly is the best case scenario

It definitely won't see the mid level warm layers as well as the euro/nam when we get closer... but could it be correct about a less amplified system?  Sure.  Would I stake anything I care about on it...no.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Yeah this is not a small difference between the AIGFS and GFS. Latter is was better for us.

AIGFS has the primary in WV vs. legacy GFS Georgia/Alabama border.  What's 800 miles between friends lol?

[baltosquid]

Not a huge change on the ICON ensembles but it does look like a more coastal and less WV situation for MSLP.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

GFS looks beautiful, but am I wrong to note that every time we have a setup like this, the Euro and NAM end up modeling the rain/sleet line way better than the GFS? Feels like the GFS always wants to make everything "all snow" in these kinds of setups and it almost always fails.

The GFS doesn't see mid level thermals as well as the Euro or NAM...that is a known thing  

[umdterps29]

Nobody going to post snow maps for CMC? Is it bad and we're avoiding it?

[yoda]

I want to say I "think" a good floor would be 6" at DCA right now

[baltosquid]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

Nobody going to post snow maps for CMC? Is it bad and we're avoiding it?

It’s just basically the same as the RGEM. Was a step towards more suppressed.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

Nobody going to post snow maps for CMC? Is it bad and we're avoiding it?

It's basically 8-10 for everyone and then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain.

[hstorm]

3 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Nobody going to post snow maps for CMC? Is it bad and we're avoiding it?

Largely similar to 0z.  Certainly not bad.

[ErinInTheSky]

The NAM's 2.5-3" of sleet on top of that snow will be hilarious if it verifies. I remember a 3" sleet storm in like 2017 or 2018 and it was a concrete mess.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

I want to say I "think" a good floor would be 6" at DCA right now

Agree, nothing is showing less than 0.5 QPF before a change over and ratios should be decent or better.  

[baltosquid]

Ukie souther with the Baja low thru 54