“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[The 4 Seasons]

[weatherwiz]

Any mixing issues would probably be more towards the end of the storm...I don't think mixing would be an issue during the bulk 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ray bitched his exhaust to me

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sleet to tolland

Junior staying up later than you again to track the rain/ snow line near S Wey

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Any mixing issues would probably be more towards the end of the storm...I don't think mixing would be an issue during the bulk 

yep as the dry slot approaches could flip to lighter sleet or even ZR

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Wow

[Chrisrotary12]

Caution flag? 

 

[CoastalWx]

6z actually had more QPF

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is a region-wide 12-16 assuming 14:1. First since major since March 2019 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ray bitched his exhaust to me

suck on that tailpipe 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ray bitched his exhaust to me

Lets see what actually happens...

[WeatherGeek2025]

I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so

Central park is getting 18 inches

Boston 18

Wash in from DC 19

Philly 17

 

will post snowmap later

[Snowcrazed71]

Dare I say.... Could be huge!!? 

[Torch Tiger]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weren’t we just discussing the euroAI solution? Ineedsnow said over an inch for all of SNE and you said it’s a mid sized snowstorm. 
 

I agree some solution like the Icon is fairly mid…maybe 8-12ish…but any of these that are producing inflow and 1-1.5” of QPF is major at minimum. 

the lack of a dynamic solution and it happening on the weekend knocks back the "major' implications around here. If so. Nice storm sure esp. if we're talking 18+ but nothing we haven't seen many times

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so

Central park is getting 18 inches

Boston 18

Wash in from DC 19

Philly 17

 

will post snowmap later

Keep me posted.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z actually had more QPF

06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

This is a region-wide 12-16 assuming 14:1. First since major since March 2019 

Where are you? Dec 2020, Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 was major, depending on where you are of course. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z was a better solution. 1/z got per its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. 

I can’t see it yet so thanks for the explanation. I mean obviously we take.

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Where are you? Dec 2020, Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 was major, depending on where you are of course. 

Forgot about December 2020! Feb 2021 i left out because coastal plain was screwed. Jan 2022 I also forgot. Of these December 2020 should be the best analog

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so

Central park is getting 18 inches

Boston 18

Wash in from DC 19

Philly 17

 

will post snowmap later

I’ll save you the time 

 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early

Friday my guy

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early

Waaay too early 

[Damage In Tolland]

12z is better for CT

[dryslot]

qpf wise up here it was better then 06z.

[George001]

when the debate is whether we “only get 8-12” vs 18 ish, that’s a great spot to be in.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early

Friday the earliest

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. 

Ahh this makes sense. I hate how products are limited on weathermodels but my initial thinking was whether the 12z Euro was like occluding things a bit quicker the way it was kind of tapering down the QPF towards the end. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Waaay too early 

Ok.....Just asking.. Geez .lol

[MegaMike]

2 minutes ago, nbweather said:

DESI also offers the hourly dynamic snow to liquid ratio that is used in the NBM as a field.

It's a great website and there's a lot provided! It's free and the HREF (and others) is available too. For the weenies: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?x4dLocations=%5B%22City%22%5D&chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-1[…]1dSingleField=t2&x1dGraphStyle=pdf&x2dGraphStyle=boxwhisker 

For now, I'd stick with BUFKIT although the NBM does incorporate the Cobb snowfall algorithm.

For S&Gs, the 13z NBM has ratios ~12-20:1 throughout the event. It's a bit early for this (and snowfall maps), but man... I miss following potential snow events.