The 4 Seasons Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Any mixing issues would probably be more towards the end of the storm...I don't think mixing would be an issue during the bulk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Ray bitched his exhaust to me 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sleet to tolland Junior staying up later than you again to track the rain/ snow line near S Wey 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Any mixing issues would probably be more towards the end of the storm...I don't think mixing would be an issue during the bulk yep as the dry slot approaches could flip to lighter sleet or even ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Caution flag? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6z actually had more QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: This is a region-wide 12-16 assuming 14:1. First since major since March 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ray bitched his exhaust to me suck on that tailpipe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ray bitched his exhaust to me Lets see what actually happens... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so Central park is getting 18 inches Boston 18 Wash in from DC 19 Philly 17 will post snowmap later 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Dare I say.... Could be huge!!? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weren’t we just discussing the euroAI solution? Ineedsnow said over an inch for all of SNE and you said it’s a mid sized snowstorm. I agree some solution like the Icon is fairly mid…maybe 8-12ish…but any of these that are producing inflow and 1-1.5” of QPF is major at minimum. the lack of a dynamic solution and it happening on the weekend knocks back the "major' implications around here. If so. Nice storm sure esp. if we're talking 18+ but nothing we haven't seen many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so Central park is getting 18 inches Boston 18 Wash in from DC 19 Philly 17 will post snowmap later Keep me posted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z actually had more QPF 06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: This is a region-wide 12-16 assuming 14:1. First since major since March 2019 Where are you? Dec 2020, Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 was major, depending on where you are of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z was a better solution. 1/z got per its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. I can’t see it yet so thanks for the explanation. I mean obviously we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Where are you? Dec 2020, Feb 2021 and Jan 2022 was major, depending on where you are of course. Forgot about December 2020! Feb 2021 i left out because coastal plain was screwed. Jan 2022 I also forgot. Of these December 2020 should be the best analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so Central park is getting 18 inches Boston 18 Wash in from DC 19 Philly 17 will post snowmap later I’ll save you the time 2 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early Friday my guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early Waaay too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12z is better for CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 qpf wise up here it was better then 06z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 when the debate is whether we “only get 8-12” vs 18 ish, that’s a great spot to be in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early Friday the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. Ahh this makes sense. I hate how products are limited on weathermodels but my initial thinking was whether the 12z Euro was like occluding things a bit quicker the way it was kind of tapering down the QPF towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Waaay too early Ok.....Just asking.. Geez .lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, nbweather said: DESI also offers the hourly dynamic snow to liquid ratio that is used in the NBM as a field. It's a great website and there's a lot provided! It's free and the HREF (and others) is available too. For the weenies: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?x4dLocations=%5B%22City%22%5D&chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-1[…]1dSingleField=t2&x1dGraphStyle=pdf&x2dGraphStyle=boxwhisker For now, I'd stick with BUFKIT although the NBM does incorporate the Cobb snowfall algorithm. For S&Gs, the 13z NBM has ratios ~12-20:1 throughout the event. It's a bit early for this (and snowfall maps), but man... I miss following potential snow events. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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