“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Slight tick south of GEFS?

Might be ok, especially with the way this thing has barreled northward.....

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie looks a bit more subdued. Still gets that secondary cranking though. The initial overrunning struggles more. 

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Slight tick south of GEFS?

GEFS is still lost lots of S members in there still, several hits and a couple really amped ones. So the mean appears roughly the same or maybe slight tick south

EPS much more uniform across the board.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You are the Greatest Writer there’s ever been Tip.  Tell me what you want, and I’ll edit it in with your Name.  

It doesn't matter who does it - just do it.   

like I said, the intent isn't/wasn't to shade anyone.

[The 4 Seasons]

my bad, were going in here now.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Have been wondering that too, when the mid range attenuation would kick in.   Models tend to lose 15 to 30% give or take as they relay through that range.  

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks a bit more subdued. Still gets that secondary cranking though. The initial overrunning struggles more. 

Strange look aloft compared to other models…dumps the PV lobe/nrn stream much further SW and then redevelops the ULL over W NY where the srn stream pva goes to town.

[dryslot]

12z Euro INI is late.

Late ECMWF Data Subscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Strange look aloft compared to other models…dumps the PV lobe/nrn stream much further SW and then redevelops the ULL over W NY where the srn stream pva goes to town.

Yeah it’s prob wrong, esp when diverging from other guidance like that. Ukie loves semi-exotic solutions at random times in the medium range. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I agree with Tip 

would be nice to have an overall synopsis of storm at top of thread.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is definitely a bit late today. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is definitely a bit late today. 

Ha, not the most responsible take on matters buuuut,  we did a tongue-in-cheek study when I was an undergrad and found that it was true!  A corr. coef. existed between delayed or failed transmission of model products preceding storms that actually took place.  

not kidding.  Someone would come out of the PC lounge of the weather lab to announce the MRF was late ...cheers and applause erupted. 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha, not the most responsible take on matters buuuut,  we did a study when I was an undergrad and found that a corr. coef. existed between delayed or failed transmission of model products preceding storms that actually took place.  

not kidding.  Some would come out of the PC lounge of the weather lab, announce the MRF was late ...cheers and applause erupted. 

Does late transmission mean anything from the input side?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha, not the most responsible take on matters buuuut,  we did a study when I was an undergrad and found that a corr. coef. existed between delayed or failed transmission of model products preceding storms that actually took place.  

not kidding.  Some would come out of the PC lounge of the weather lab, announce the MRF was late ...cheers and applause erupted. 

We used to joke in college that it was “processing” a monster solution as the reason for being late. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We used to joke in college that it was “processing” a monster solution as the reason for being late. 

wow, so other institutions saw this happening too.    awesome

[dryslot]

Running now, 

Monitoring - We've seen the first hours of the ECMWF start to queue.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:38 EST

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Running now, 

Monitoring - We've seen the first hours of the ECMWF start to queue.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:38 EST

@MJO812"Looks great"

[ineedsnow]

Euro AI coming north

[ORH_wxman]

Euro skynet gone wild 

[ineedsnow]

Euro AI is awesome! 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah we take that 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro skynet gone wild 

inch of qpf for most of SNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

inch of qpf for most of SNE

That's wild?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's wild?

most over.. plus when its 10 degrees out with heavy snow falling it is

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's wild?

I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit.

Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take.

It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm.

[mreaves]

59 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GEFS is still lost lots of S members in there still, several hits and a couple really amped ones. So the mean appears roughly the same or maybe slight tick south

EPS much more uniform across the board.

Sign me up for p25 or p27 please.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammertime 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit.

Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take.

It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm.

10-15" is heavy...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

10-15" is heavy...

I’d say most solutions have been closer to 10 if you toss the out of control Kuchera maps 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I mean we have a 12-18”+ storm for dc to Portland Maine and that’s a mid size snow storm . Wow these don’t grow on trees .. obviously more than 10:1 maps as meteorology tells you there’s a very good chance ratios will be higher than 10:1