1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, MI and OH

[miller.b.time]

Book it. 

[largetornado]

17 minutes ago, miller.b.time said:

Book it. 

Warm noses historically under done. Push this 100 miles north. In all reality the Tennessee ice storm is now the ky ice storm as this is an i70 special 

[sbnwx85]

Another nudge north. Although you can tell the precip shield struggles to get any further north.

[KeenerWx]

Liking 2-5” locally. 

[michsnowfreak]

Let's reel this one in. Going to need to add MI to the title.

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Let's reel this one in. Going to need to add MI to the title.

6z rgem is a thing of beauty. Gotta be record ratios.

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

6z rgem is a thing of beauty. Gotta be record ratios.

I dont like to jump on ratios too much. Sometimes when its bitterly cold you get sandy sugar snow instead of fluff. Either way, good trends.

[Stevo6899]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont like to jump on ratios too much. Sometimes when its bitterly cold you get sandy sugar snow instead of fluff. Either way, good trends.

Same but it's not gonna take much qpf to stack a foot. Pretty rare to get high ratio snow for a potential somewhat big dog.

[buckeye]

Model consistency has really lined up.   I like where we are along i70.  We have some breathing room for a last minute nudge north, since the heaviest snow right now looks like southern Ohio along the river.   
Actually more worried about dry air and push south vs a big push north.   ILN referenced the challenge of the initial push of moisture overcoming the dry air.     Gotta wonder if we have hours of a virga storm to start..

[Baum]

45 overnight posts so I guess we’re not DOA it would seem

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, Baum said:

45 overnight posts so I guess we’re not DOA it would seem

Buckeye's storm

[TimChgo9]

Changing my 2”-4” to 6”-8” for Cincinnati.  Meanwhile two of my sons are prepping down in TX for what looks like repeat of 2021. (I was there for that one)

[A-L-E-K]

too low^

[Baum]

28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Buckeye's storm

Yes. Was more from a forum perspective. If I can get what the GEM or Euro show IMBY I’m good. Plus a couple more days of model watching while locked in from the deep freeze…..hoping.

[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, Baum said:

Yes. Was more from a forum perspective. If I can get what the GEM or Euro show IMBY I’m good. Plus a couple more days of model watching while locked in from the deep freeze…..hoping.

you're better at turd polishing than i am

cad while nyc gets 20 is a bad time lol

[King James]

Meh, let’s keep this thing bumping north

[mimillman]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

you're better at turd polishing than i am

cad while nyc gets 20 is a bad time lol

Still paying for 2021

[buckeye]

26 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

Changing my 2”-4” to 6”-8” for Cincinnati.  Meanwhile two of my sons are prepping down in TX for what looks like repeat of 2021. (I was there for that one)

dude....cincy and towns along the ohio rive are ground zero for big snows west of the apps.   If we get 6-10 you guys are easily 12+

[A-L-E-K]

10 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Still paying for 2021

not even a decade in the rearview, lots of clunker seasons to go before we're due again

[Chicago WX]

0.20-0.30" of QPF on the ensembles. Think my call right now would be 24 hours of arctic sand for a grand total of 2-4". 

6z NAM with a classic jump way north. Sell as usual.

I noticed on the 0z Euro, the 850 low gets pretty far north. Ends up flipping places like DC to pingers and zr after an initial thump of snow.   

SGF to BMG to CMH looking pretty locked in for 10"+.

[A-L-E-K]

I saw arctic sand at ozzfest in 1998, they sucked

[Chicago WX]

This piece of crap is supposed to replace the NAM at some point, I believe. But hey, dare to dream.

 

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

too low^

 

[A-L-E-K]

haha yes

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Still paying for 2021

Was that the downtown lake effect special?

[buckeye]

20 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

This piece of crap is supposed to replace the NAM at some point, I believe. But hey, dare to dream.

 

can't see what's going on along the MA.... but that looks like a wrist-slitter for those guys 

[A-L-E-K]

3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Was that the downtown lake effect special?

return

[TimChgo9]

50 minutes ago, buckeye said:

dude....cincy and towns along the ohio rive are ground zero for big snows west of the apps.   If we get 6-10 you guys are easily 12+

I have seen several maps showing over 10” for KILN, felt that the totals were overdone. I may have been wrong in that assessment. 

[Cary67]

12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

return

Thx. Remember the near misses more than the hits

[nvck]

10 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

I have seen several maps showing over 10” for KILN, felt that the totals were overdone. I may have been wrong in that assessment. 

Wsw issued this am for Hamilton and the tier of counties just north of the river has 6-10" mentioned ....

4-8" for the tier above that, and id assume 6-10" for river counties as well.