January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[mattinpa]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The maps all over the news and nws are just wild to me. Listening to WIP on way to work people think we’re getting a foot of snow in the city. I don’t want to sound like a deb, because I am excited for the storm, but I personally think 4-6” then sleet for the city. I just feel like we’re going to hear “oh the wx forecasters blew it” all week. I just don’t see a path for Philly to get 8+. I hope I’m wrong lol. This event has reminded me of Dec 2020 and I’ll stick to that general snow axis. I said I liked that analog a week ago and now it’s top 5 in analog matches


.

I think there’s definitely a path. Hard to nail down that warm tongue and air temps are very cold. I personally think it was an off run from the NAM. If it does that again tonight and we see some trending, then I’ll worry.

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

[Physicsteve]

The CGI (canadian goose index) just rocketed off the charts here. Must have had 300 or so just go overhead and i hear more coming. Couldnt ask them in time if they thought the warm nose was being over-modeled though. Still have to wait and see. 

[ChescoWx]

Just now, ChescoWx said:

Above is only thru 1pm

[CoolHandMike]

What NAM are you guys looking at? Still seeing double digits region-wide over at TT... What am I missing?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Borrowing this from @MillvilleWx in the mid atl sub. 

[Violentweatherfan]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Borrowing this from @MillvilleWx in the mid atl sub. 

Did you see the post showing temperatures of the cold front coming in 

[Violentweatherfan]

Bradford Pa is at 0°

State college is at 14°

[LVblizzard]

Went 10-16” for the Lehigh Valley on my page yesterday. Sticking to that tonight. We cannot have another jump north after that 18z suite though. That would cause me to really rethink things and I HATE busting high.

[zenmsav6810]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

Went 10-16” for the Lehigh Valley on my page yesterday. Sticking to that tonight. We cannot have another jump north after that 18z suite though. That would cause me to really rethink things and I HATE busting high.

This is a good forecast. I think Mt. Holly has a good handle on this one. Its been a pretty stably modeled storm aside from 12z suite today. Also anybody see DT's forecast? 

 

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Borrowing this from @MillvilleWx in the mid atl sub. 

Is it possible to have both a warm tongue and suppression? This looks like a pretty close off solution that doesn't "redevelop" the surface low.

[Kevin Reilly]

30 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

The CGI (canadian goose index) just rocketed off the charts here. Must have had 300 or so just go overhead and i hear more coming. Couldnt ask them in time if they thought the warm nose was being over-modeled though. Still have to wait and see. 

Think the budget was cut balloons too expensive so geese were tagged to sample the atmosphere around our region looking for where the warm tongue will set up. 

[JTA66]

9 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

This is a good forecast. I think Mt. Holly has a good handle on this one. Its been a pretty stably modeled storm aside from 12z suite today. Also anybody see DT's forecast? 

 

Is it possible to have both a warm tongue and suppression? This looks like a pretty close off solution that doesn't "redevelop" the surface low.

We have an uncanny ability to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. So yes, there’s a world in which an arctic high can suppress precip, but what trace amounts bust through will encounter a warm tongue and fall as anything but snow. It’s how we roll!  

[Lady Di]

Sorry for the non weather question.  I’m old and a widow so preparing.  Adam Joseph said don’t shovel the snow before it flips cause you’ll never get the frozen stuff off a bare walk.  Is he correct?

 

Just had a pretty good wind gust.  Cold front incoming. Wind chimes going nuts just now. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

25 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

Sorry for the non weather question.  I’m old and a widow so preparing.  Adam Joseph said don’t shovel the snow before it flips cause you’ll never get the frozen stuff off a bare walk.  Is he correct?

 

Just had a pretty good wind gust.  Cold front incoming. Wind chimes going nuts just now. 

Surface map is showing the front has crossed the area and my dp dropped down to 6F within the past hour.  Am currently at 30 after getting up to 37 as a high with 18 dp.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

We have an uncanny ability to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. So yes, there’s a world in which an arctic high can suppress precip, but what trace amounts bust through will encounter a warm tongue and fall as anything but snow. It’s how we roll!  

Don't forget the premature ending problem. We finish faster the anyone.

[Roger Smith]

Still thinking Allentown e.n.e. to n NJ is the jackpot with 16-20 inch potential. Expecting very tight snowfall gradients near PHL to MMU, amounts could range from 3" to 12" over relatively short distances (n-s) in that zone. Given the location of PHL airport its total may be considerably less than a lot of people who live in northern suburbs. I guess you are used to that anyway. I don't believe both the GFS and the NAM could be exactly right so the result will be some sort of compromise between them ... would go with 50-50 blend, then if ECM is not close to that, further 50-50 of the blend with ECM. By the time I had that worked out, I could compare it to reported totals.

Anyway, expect some very sharp gradients in this storm, and some thunder with the snow (or sleet) towards mid-afternoon Sunday. 

[Prairie Dog]

If anyone is interested. The Joe and Joe weather show will have DT, Bill Goodman from Upton, and Alan Kasper on live at 735 PM

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fyoutube.com%2Flive%2FdL7K-oOsNuY%3Ffeature%3Dshare%26fbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExd1BmYlRDSHppb2Z3amtXU3NydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR66QJFGGFoXNZQyCVSFl2PZKw3OyE9q_hEQQnQJ5rCR_T5ZcdbDYjD3xUZsAA_aem_xTjdkXJiSMS49KhYQXI0eg&h=AT1wewvmSCpABlIdqEjFvLkAP8t0tp3_FCO6GL6JPLigfxF8hzduLVJIxf98Pv75cxWft455qG28IIT2gUBXudWEoVyXi-aE_08zOtIva79o5z2LIsRsPxQJgb8B6Hqrn-i7fpyg6B5EATD1&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT1hBYTZdDbvtPsi4BqQr_3Fe9cj2CIIzkmqlTBFa_liWZVSxS2ascr18tLV6YsLzIMxJgDV62Lopa9_OxFu43qeuXxjs4CI3eHYUSjpXdhhIqlzeKsLFcxIFNHxZoHfzPbpOwAUp17KIXnMQpE-CILvM4ee1q_cq77itAfwWRlJC8v49O0ENaO0ZTjk7rqEu1NGEuDJdHBn6g7l-9z4tzdqAg

[ron1660]

Comparing the 850 mb temperatures for Philly, NW Burlington County NJ, NW Camden County between 18z GFS and 18Z Euro, the GFS NEVER gets the temperature above zero degrees C, and even then, it only holds it there for 3 hours maximum (probably shorter). This doesn't occur until 03z Monday. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the 850 mb temperature around 3 degrees C at 0z Monday, and then only reduces it to zero and below 10 hours later. Yet the snow fall estimates are not too different from each other, implying that most of the heavy precipitation ended before the changeover. One more thing... the nasty run of the latest NAM model shows the 850 mb temperature on the NJ coast at 10 degrees C (50 degrees F!). How in the world could those temperatures have warmed that much. Make me believe there is a problem with the run.

[Fields27]

I wonder where this storm will rank in terms of size and shear coverage. I dont know I've ever seen such an expansive warning map across the county. Very impressive.

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[RedSky]

DT like 18z Nam thinks its not done correcting warm

[Birds~69]

23F but the wind is starting to crank...

[Duca892]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT like 18z Nam thinks its not done correcting warm

bruh if this corrects even MORE warm… this would be worse than my pessimistic 6-8in call for ABE before sleet

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

bruh if this corrects even MORE warm… this would be worse than my pessimistic 6-8in call for ABE before sleet

Think happy cold thoughts

[LVblizzard]

11 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

bruh if this corrects even MORE warm… this would be worse than my pessimistic 6-8in call for ABE before sleet

My call is already lower than the 12-18” that the other two big pages (EPAWA and LVWA) have. Getting just 6” would be a massive failure.

[Hurricane Agnes]

56 minutes ago, ron1660 said:

 One more thing... the nasty run of the latest NAM model shows the 850 mb temperature on the NJ coast at 10 degrees C (50 degrees F!). How in the world could those temperatures have warmed that much. Make me believe there is a problem with the run.

The ocean is a laggard for seasonal change in temps and doesn't chill completely until like February, which is why our springs can get strung out into May and sometimes June, with a number of bouts of March snow (the kind of snow people wanted the December before )!

[RedSky]

Radio show guys think the bulk of the storm is 10am-4pm Sunday

[bigtenfan]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Radio show guys think the bulk of the storm is 10am-4pm Sunday

Do they believe the NAM?

[Duca892]

13 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

My call is already lower than the 12-18” that the other two big pages (EPAWA and LVWA) have. Getting just 6” would be a massive failure.

I just really hope DT is not right on this it would be a massive bust. Huge. That 18z NAM run scared me… again it’s just the NAM

[LVblizzard]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Radio show guys think the bulk of the storm is 10am-4pm Sunday

That’s all snow here so I’d be pretty happy with that. I don’t mind changing over to sleet as long as we get dumped on with snow first.