January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

@Ralph Wiggum Mt holly says conservative calls are for squares! 

Upton is also aggressive 

[ChescoWx]

Below is the sounding above KMQS Coatesville Airport at 7pm off the 12z Euro this appears to be the warmest hour on the model at 850mb previous 2 hours had some warmth at 700mb that looks like clearly IP to me. Does the below look like IP or ZR....I think it's close to ZR but mainly sleet - can our professional Mr. Newman weigh in? Thanks!

[Lady Di]

What do y'all think the potential for power outages will be?  Less than 50%? Not so much during the storm but possibly either tomorrow night or Monday.  Thinking about getting some propane tanks filled so I can have a source of heat (fireplace) if needed. Not so worried about seeing if the generator will work as I'll just put stuff in a cooler outside to stay cold/frozen.

[CoolHandMike]

32 minutes ago, MsHeatMiser said:

That was a glorious winter to be a Penn State main campus student. State College had their seasonal snow record that year. The rain snow line seemed to set up around Harrisburg for many events. 

Winter '94? I was also on main campus. I remember cars being completely buried and a massive snowball fight in between the dorms. I caught a stray to the side of my head that blew out both of my glasses lenses (we somehow found them in the snow anyway) and then we got in trouble for climbing on top of one of the covered walkways.

Good times.

[CoolHandMike]

7 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

What do y'all think the potential for power outages will be?  Less than 50%? Not so much during the storm but possibly either tomorrow night or Monday.  Thinking about getting some propane tanks filled so I can have a source of heat (fireplace) if needed. Not so worried about seeing if the generator will work as I'll just put stuff in a cooler outside to stay cold/frozen.

Having lived in ChesCo for a significant portion of my life, I'd definitely try to get that genny working if I were still there now. That said, I'm also going to make sure ours is up to snuff here after work just in case.

[Newman]

31 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

What is your best guess for snow accumulations for Berks County? Do you expect it to flip to sleet at all? Sorry if I missed a recent post about it

I would personally go 10-14" right now for Berks, briefly ending as sleet for up to 1-2 hours at most. I think the highest amounts end up along an arc through Adams -> Dauphin -> Schuylkill -> Carbon -> Monroe counties... so just north of Berks and Lehigh counties. I am personally expecting a slightly more north warm nose than what the NWS is currently forecasting, but if I am wrong and it stays all snow then 12-16" (as it says in their WSW) is right on the money. I think the ceiling is around 18" under a perfect scenario, the floor is around 8" if things really start to shift north. I haven't seen any guidance spit out more than 1.1-1.2" of QPF. A storm average 15:1 ratio with 1.2" QPF gets you 18" if it's all snow.

[MGorse]

17 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below is the sounding above KMQS Coatesville Airport at 7pm off the 12z Euro this appears to be the warmest hour on the model at 850mb previous 2 hours had some warmth at 700mb that looks like clearly IP to me. Does the below look like IP or ZR....I think it's close to ZR but mainly sleet - can our professional Mr. Newman weigh in? Thanks!

Looks to me more like snow pellets or sleet with that isothermal to just a tad above freezing layer aloft. 

[BlueDXer75]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

I would personally go 10-14" right now for Berks, briefly ending as sleet for up to 1-2 hours at most. I think the highest amounts end up along an arc through Adams -> Dauphin -> Schuylkill -> Carbon -> Monroe counties... so just north of Berks and Lehigh counties. I am personally expecting a slightly more north warm nose than what the NWS is currently forecasting, but if I am wrong and it stays all snow then 12-16" (as it says in their WSW) is right on the money. I think the ceiling is around 18" under a perfect scenario, the floor is around 8" if things really start to shift north. I haven't seen any guidance spit out more than 1.1-1.2" of QPF. A storm average 15:1 ratio with 1.2" QPF gets you 18" if it's all snow.

Great! Thank you for the great explanation!

[Newman]

23 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below is the sounding above KMQS Coatesville Airport at 7pm off the 12z Euro this appears to be the warmest hour on the model at 850mb previous 2 hours had some warmth at 700mb that looks like clearly IP to me. Does the below look like IP or ZR....I think it's close to ZR but mainly sleet - can our professional Mr. Newman weigh in? Thanks!

Like Mike said above, looks like IP to me!

[LehighValleyDad]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

I would personally go 10-14" right now for Berks, briefly ending as sleet for up to 1-2 hours at most. I think the highest amounts end up along an arc through Adams -> Dauphin -> Schuylkill -> Carbon -> Monroe counties... so just north of Berks and Lehigh counties. I am personally expecting a slightly more north warm nose than what the NWS is currently forecasting, but if I am wrong and it stays all snow then 12-16" (as it says in their WSW) is right on the money. I think the ceiling is around 18" under a perfect scenario, the floor is around 8" if things really start to shift north. I haven't seen any guidance spit out more than 1.1-1.2" of QPF. A storm average 15:1 ratio with 1.2" QPF gets you 18" if it's all snow.

Enjoy reading your analyses in this thread Mr. Newman.   I like where I'm sitting right now about 10 miles due north from LVI/ABE airport.   Feel like we may briefly touch some sleet at this point ... but not for long.  

[RedSky]

DT is saying .25-.50" ice threat in Virginia-Carolina are we no longer talking 1" ice accumulation the ice storm potential has slacked

 

[Shenanagins1091]

5-10" feels like a decent call for south jersey given the mixing


.

[ChescoWx]

22 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Looks to me more like snow pellets or sleet with that isothermal to just a tad above freezing layer aloft. 

Thanks Mike!! would have mentioned you too but was not sure you were on the forum. 

Take care

Paul

[The Iceman]

NAM is a crushing. This is all pre sleet

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2026012218/namconus_asnow_neus_27.png

 

[RedSky]

More a thumping than a crushing 8-10" brief sleet then dry slot almost same timing as the ECM 

SECS

 

[JTA66]

NAM doesn’t look all that different from the Euro. We puke fatties until Sunday evening, then taint with lighter stuff.

[RedSky]

Only way we get a MECS back is if the primary is further south and we get in on the ULL action

 

[Albedoman]

I am not chuckling any more about the snow ratios and the location of the benchmark LP  in the delmarva, The experts agree with me.

 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for Friday night due to dangerously cold wind chills below zero. While models are trending north with the weekend storm system, resulting in more of a wintry mix, significant snow impacts are still expected. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday night through late Monday morning. && .

KEY MESSAGES... 1. Several cold fronts will be tracking through the area through Friday night. This will be the transition from the warmth to an arctic airmass bringing dangerously cold wind chills to all of the region by Friday night and into the start of the weekend. 2. Low pressure will impact the area Saturday night through late Monday morning with significant snow accumulations, however, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and even plain rain may result in lower snow accumulations than would otherwise be expected. 3. Arctic air will remain over the area next week with temperatures not rising above freezing until possibly next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Several cold fronts will be tracking through the area through Friday night. This will be the transition from the warmth to an arctic airmass bringing dangerously cold wind chills to all of the region by Friday night and into the start of the weekend. Seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s are occuring across the area this afternoon. The warmth will be short-lived however, as we`ll be transitioning to an arctic airmass over the next 24-36 hours. The initial cold front is currently located over east-central Pennsylvania and will track east across the Mid- Atlantic and off the coast by this evening. Wind gusts up to 30-40 mph have occurred across much of the area, but will diminish into tonight as the front departs. Temperatures tonight will fall back to more seasonable levels with lows mainly in the upper teens to upper 20s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures on Friday will remain seasonable for one more day; topping out in the low to mid 30s north and west to low to mid 40s south and east. This will be the last of `normal` temperatures for quite a while as a potent secondary arctic front sweeps across the area by mid to late afternoon. Strong cold air advection pours into the region for Friday night where 850 mb temps are expected to range from -15C to -25C. This equates to surface temps falling into the single digits (or below zero on the Pocono Plateau). Not only will the temperatures be falling rapidly, but winds will pick up in wake of the secondary front; driven by a tightening pressure gradient between a very strong 1044 mb arctic high and departing low. This combination of single digit temperatures and wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph will result in wind chills below zero areawide. For this reason, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire forecast area for Friday night through Saturday morning. Where winds may be slightly higher and temps will be colder, wind chills may get as low as -20F on the Pocono Plateau. Possible upgrades to an Extreme Cold Warning cannot be ruled out for Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA. While the peak of the cold air aloft occurs Friday night, the arctic airmass remains overhead through the day on Saturday with strong surface high pressure building over the Great Lakes. High temps will only be in the teens to low 20s but fortunately winds will be diminishing. Dry conditions are expected through Saturday. This will be the last day to prepare for any storm preparations, so take any necessary precautions as needed to stay warm if outdoors.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure will impact the area Saturday night through late Monday morning with significant snow accumulations, however, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and even plain rain may result in lower snow accumulations than would otherwise be expected. Arctic high pressure will be north of New York State Saturday night and will gradually lift to the northeast throughout the day Sunday, finally departing Sunday night. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough will continue to exit out of the Rocky Mountains and surface low pressure continues to organize and develop over the Gulf Coast states Saturday night through Sunday morning. Surface low then takes a run towards the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening before moving offshore and out to sea Sunday night through Monday. Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer air lifts to the north. From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF. The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and southern Delaware coast. This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues into Monday morning before ending. Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva. While liquid QPF will be lower in the northern zones, the higher snow ratios will result in higher snow amounts in those areas. The main issue continues to be how much mixing will occur and how that will affect snow accumulations. While the overall average looks to be 12 to 15 inches, it is also quite possible for accumulations to be less, generally on the order of 8 to 12 inches from around Philadelphia south, with even less in southern Delmarva and along the extreme southeast New Jersey coast. The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect through late Monday morning/early Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic air will remain over the area next week with temperatures not rising above freezing until possibly next weekend. High pressure builds in from the north on Monday, and temperatures will be fairly cold with highs generally in the 20s to maybe low 30s in the far southern portions of the forecast area. A strong cold front then passes through Monday night and bitterly cold Arctic air spreads into the region with lows in the single digits Monday night and highs in the teens on Tuesday. Cold Weather Advisories and even Cold Air Warnings may be needed due to low wind chills as strong northwest winds develop behind the front. Highs will then be only slightly warmer Wednesday and Thursday. Due to this prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures, do not expect any help from Mother Nature with melting the new snowpack. In fact, temperatures may not get above freezing until next weekend.

[wkd]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Only way we get a MECS back is if the primary is further south and we get in on the ULL action

 

I'm not complaining at all.  Finally a good daytime snow.

[Duca892]

Getting drier on models too sadly 

[RedSky]

Just now, wkd said:

I'm not complaining at all.  Finally a good daytime snow.

Better here then the MA side they just got pants pulled on the NAM

 

[ChescoWx]

Snow first plus sleet second....change back to snow before ending? 

[RedSky]

3" sleet in DC 

May future runs go no further north

 

[Duca892]

Kind of the reason why I am so pessimistic is that models keep trending drier with more warm air invading. It simply won't shock me if total snow accum fell in that 6-8in range with that crap sleet on top. 

[Birds~69]

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Better here then the MA side they just got pants pulled on the NAM

 

They are currently going through the 5 steps of grief but at different stages at various rates. Some are actually already at step 5. "3-5 inches isn't that bad"

• Denial: "This can't be happening to me," a defense mechanism to process overwhelming news.
• Anger: "Why is this happening to me?" Blaming others or feeling rage.
• Bargaining: "I'll do anything if this isn't true," making deals with a higher power.
• Depression: "I'm too sad to do anything," profound sadness and hopelessness.
• Acceptance: "It's going to be okay," coming to terms with the reality of the loss.

[RedSky]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Kind of the reason why I am so pessimistic is that models keep trending drier with more warm air invading. It simply won't shock me if total snow accum fell in that 6-8in range with that crap sleet on top. 

Take what we can get build the glacier and on to the groundhog storm 

[Duca892]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Take what we can get build the glacier and on to the groundhog storm 

Literally was salivating on some chances that are in the pipeline the next few weeks lol 

[anthonyweather]

Sunday evening/night holds blizzard warning criteria. Something to keep an eye on.

[Hurricane Agnes]

19z NBM (18z ICON is running).

[anthonyweather]

Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

19z NBM (18z ICON is running).

I'm starting to become curious if this thing accounts for mixing or if its heavily based on the GFS