Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Doesn't look like it's moving north all that fast over DE and hitting some resistance over DE Bay. I'm sure it's still coming but time to watch the radar and the CC line from here IMO. And heavy enough rates can overcome a very shallow warm layer a little above freezing which is probably what the HRRR is showing with the fighting back and forth. 

You beat me lol… was just gonna say it looks like it crashed into a wall there 

[NorthShoreWx]

14 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's fair, but here's 3pm near Newark. That's a sleet sounding. So presumably sleet started before this time period. Obviously the further north you go, the later this sleet. But it definitely looks like it's coming quickly. That's why I'm heading outside now to enjoy it.

That's a mix

[Kjtc1979]

NYC schools remote tomorrow.

[nycsnow]

Sleet line clearly slowing down south it’s def coming but any slow down or stall means a lot here 

[mikem81]

Hpw can we track movement of sleet line?

[mikem81]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Sleet line clearly slowing down south it’s def coming but any slow down or stall means a lot here 

How are you tracking it ?

[NorthShoreWx]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Doesn't look like it's moving north all that fast over DE and hitting some resistance over DE Bay. I'm sure it's still coming but time to watch the radar and the CC line from here IMO. And heavy enough rates can overcome a very shallow warm layer a little above freezing which is probably what the HRRR is showing with the fighting back and forth. 

Plenty of indications that the mid level warmth makes faster progress to our west.  Could see it flipping to sleet up in OC (if it gets that far) before it does here.

This is shown on some of the mesos and borne out down on the Delmarva vs NoVa.

We just need to hang on long enough.  Might be able to swing a snow-sleet mix until very close to the end, which is looking like a little freezing drizzle.  I'm not sure the difference between worst case and best case is all that much from this vantage point.  Should be a fun day.

12⁰ with light snow here atm.  Eyeballing between 2 and 3 inches.  We have had a couple of heavy bursts.

[TriPol]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Hpw can we track movement of sleet line?

I love this group. After about a week of debate about if it will snow, sleet, or suppress... we get snow. The largest snow of the year. And so do we want to go outside, enjoy the snow, maybe build a snowman or a snow castle... we track the sleet line. Like it's a predator hunting us. 

 

You guys are great.

 

I'll admit I was refreshing tropical tidbits and pivotal weather for the next frame on the EURO like a madman... but you guys got me beat.

[psv88]

I already have more than the NAM gave me on some runs (4”)…yes I’m kidding but I I’ll have more than 4

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Sleet line clearly slowing down south it’s def coming but any slow down or stall means a lot here 

Still looks to come in around 2PM but due to high initial ratios and the heavy incoming thump we're more likely to approach double digits 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I already have more than the NAM gave me on some runs (4”)…yes I’m kidding but I I’ll have more than 4

One run of the Nam had me at 3 total and I'm approaching 4

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I already have more than the NAM gave me on some runs (4”)…yes I’m kidding but I I’ll have more than 4

Yea it may end up more correct than other models with regards to a flip to sleet but its godawful otherwise. 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

One run of the Nam had me at 3 total and I'm approaching 4

Some people knew

[nycsnow]

11 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Hpw can we track movement of sleet line?

Radar scope correlation coefficient setting and you’ll see the line 

[Astoriaweather]

Snow has kind of lightened up for now in Astoria 

[nycsnow]

There is a wall of heavy snow coming look towards PA

[MJO812]

Few inches already on the ground here in Brooklyn.

[psv88]

RRFS is 10-14” for Long Island. Wow

[TriPol]

Upton should have stuck to their guns instead of caving to the NAM.

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

RRFS is 10-14” for Long Island. Wow

When does it have sleet starting 

[NJwx85]

I’m up over 5” already. Location is near New City in Central Rockland County.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Upton should have stuck to their guns instead of caving to the NAM.

8 to 12 not reasonable?

[WestBabylonWeather]

Eyeballing 1-2” in west babylon just north of southern state 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Upton should have stuck to their guns instead of caving to the NAM.

P&C here is 8 - 14"

[weathermedic]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Few inches already on the ground here in Brooklyn.

3 inches at my location in Sheepshead Bay

 

[jm1220]

Download RadarScope and use Correlation Coefficient. The yellow line is where sleet mixes in. This was as of a few minutes ago 

[Snowshack]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Upton should have stuck to their guns instead of caving to the NAM.

Think they’ve done a great job based on how this looks right now in Suffolk 

[Astoriaweather]

https://x.com/ryankanerwx/status/2015418444397556035?s=46&t=vSc28c4jRnGy3UkOwCbIQQ

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Download RadarScope and use Correlation Coefficient. The yellow line is where sleet mixes in. This was as of a few minutes ago 

Got pushed back last few frames w little 

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, wkd said:

What is the source of this table? It's really nice.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KTTN&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL