Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Right now the model consensus has the dividing line between big snows and more modest snow accumulations plus sleet from extreme northern Morris County through northern Passaic, Rockland, northern Westchester, and northern Fairfield. Right now I would take the under on double digit amounts south of this line. Hopefully the last two model runs and then nowcasting shift that line south a bit.

Shocking that it's pretty much the I287 corridor........ at least in NJ and NYS

[North and West]

well, i'm baking cookies. 

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[Roger Smith]

Not to be too critical of the thread but the severe cold part should make the dates read 1/24 to 1/26.

[wthrmn654]

Fyi, a nws met just said that observations down south are snow where sleet/ freezing rain was forecast.  Still he says  it's unknown if that will translate to good news up here for us.

[sussexcountyobs]

Temp down to 10.9F

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Much needed with the long snow drought. I found this out PSU's Weather World interesting:

You can really see how rough it's been around State College as well lately:

Winters for the last 20 years in Central PA have by and large been horrendous. I’m glad that most of that region should do well tomorrow but the long term average for State College, Altoona, Williamsport etc is over 40” snow per winter. They’ve been able to manage that in their few high end winters in the last 20 years but by and large way below that. Way too many SWFE’s that turn into sleetfests, cutters or Miller Bs that develop too late, much fewer Miller A coastal huggers like 3/1993 or storms that would redevelop offshore in time-now these are good I-90 snowmakers not I-80. It started right when I went to school there and never really improved. So I’d say there’s definitely some long term shift that’s screwed them over and not some short term correction that will easily reverse. 

[Prue11]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

Fyi, a nws met just said that observations down south are snow where sleet/ freezing rain was forecast.  Still he says  it's unknown if that will translate to good news up here for us.

Interesting but I would think the ocean plays a major role in that? anyone?

[EasternLI]

The extreme cold warning in New Orleans is pretty impressive.

 

...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 9 above expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin
  is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing
  temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

[Jt17]

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Best case. Would have a lot of happy folks in here.


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[SACRUS]

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Much needed with the long snow drought. I found this out PSU's Weather World interesting:

You can really see how rough it's been around State College as well lately:

Yes. State College has been suffering from a particularly severe snow drought.

[SACRUS]

[North and West]

Interesting but I would think the ocean plays a major role in that? anyone?

Are you telling me there’s an ocean nearby?


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[SACRUS]

 

 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Winters for the last 20 years in Central PA have by and large been horrendous. I’m glad that most of that region should do well tomorrow but the long term average for State College, Altoona, Williamsport etc is over 40” snow per winter. They’ve been able to manage that in their few high end winters in the last 20 years but by and large way below that. Way too many SWFE’s that turn into sleetfests, cutters or Miller Bs that develop too late, much fewer Miller A coastal huggers like 3/1993 or storms that would redevelop offshore in time-now these are good I-90 snowmakers not I-80. It started right when I went to school there and never really improved. So I’d say there’s definitely some long term shift that’s screwed them over and not some short term correction that will easily reverse. 

see, you shoulda gone to binghamton....woulda been cheaper too....

[Prue11]

Just now, North and West said:

Are you telling me there’s an ocean nearby?


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What I mean is what does Tennessee having snow over zr/sleet have anything to do with us? Our climate with the ocean nearby is entirely different 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Prue11 said:

What I mean is what does Tennessee having snow over zr/sleet have anything to do with us? Our climate with the ocean nearby is entirely different 

It may or may not, I would imagine it only matters if its a sign the low is tracking further south than modeled?

[weathermedic]

Latest graphic from Upton

[SnoSki14]

Looks like highs today will stay in the teens

[TriPol]

18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Not to be too critical of the thread but the severe cold part should make the dates read 1/24 to 1/26.

fixed

[snywx]

26 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Right now the model consensus has the dividing line between big snows and more modest snow accumulations plus sleet from extreme northern Morris County through northern Passaic, Rockland, northern Westchester, and northern Fairfield. Right now I would take the under on double digit amounts south of this line. Hopefully the last two model runs and then nowcasting shift that line south a bit.

Looks like there will be a decent drop off right near or just south of the NY/NJ border. 15+ looks pretty solid in Orange County as of right now 

[psv88]

High was 18. Now 15

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

see, you shoulda gone to binghamton....woulda been cheaper too....

Shoulda woulda coulda? 

[Snowman92]

Seems like mixing line is further south than what models showing based on radar. I could be wrong with my non-professional eye

[SACRUS]

1/24 18z gfs

 

 

[SACRUS]

[Poker2015]

These guys still super aggressive with their forecast...but that's what gets views and clicks...

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

[wthrmn654]

Got down to 4.5 last night only about 16 as high.  Mighty cold