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Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26


TriPol
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The upcoming snowstorm will likely join a relatively small number of storms that brought 6" or more to all of the following cities: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Many of those prior storms were epic storms. The list since 1950 is below.

image.png.bb519bedf23b85dafe9467edcb9a011d.png

In short, not only will this storm likely be New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years, it could be a really special event, too.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There’s going to a be a lot of pancaking on Sunday afternoon as the mix line advances.

I mean as of right now sleet is likely to cut down on totals for a large chunk of the subforum no matter what some of our posters say. 

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

FWIW TWC said 12 to 18 and any brief mixing will not affect snow totals.

They're going with the nws.  That's fine and I don't have any issue with that.  I kind of like the bold call from the nws.  I definitely disagree with them right now though but what do I know. 

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Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Eduggs 

He's getting so much crap for being disappointed.  I kinda feel the way he does. I loved being on the northern fringe of this.  That was a great spot for us.  Is he being a bit excessive with it?  Sure but everyone's reactions to him are worse imo. 

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

He's getting so much crap for being disappointed.  I kinda feel the way he does. I loved being on the northern fringe of this.  That was a great spot for us.  Is he being a bit excessive with it?  Sure but everyone's reactions to him are worse imo. 

Eh idk some of his personal attack posts that got deleted were worse.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Decades? The record-setting January 22-23, 2016 blizzard was just over 10 years ago. The long-duration January 31-February 4, 2021 storm that brought 17.4" to NYC was just under 5 years ago. The Post would do well to consult weather information before writing its headlines.

Journalism is DEAD.  Died a long time ago.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

My gut is telling me that we get 10" out here plus a bunch of sleet. All depends on the secondary. If it pops early and south like the GFS has it, we will get 18"...


Easily 10”

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17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:
FWIW TWC said 12 to 18 and any brief mixing will not affect snow totals.


It’s still 3 days away. It’s fine to give a range of possibilities, but considering the snow won’t start till early Sunday, this still could  be either a 4 to 8 or 8 to 12 or 12 to 18 type deal for NYC.. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, TV forecasters almost never gave out estimates before 48 hours and usually only 24. Yes, modeling and science has gotten better. But we all know plenty of models can still make fairly large shifts within 72 hours.


.

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53 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

How are you gonna say it's wishful thinking when you didn't even look at it? Sounds more like your a Debbie thinking 

I had looked at the maps that were available at the same. And now that I've looked closely, I can confirm my suspicion that the 18z ECM looks nothing like the GFS and did not meaningfully trend towards it. If anything the shortwave near the MS valley that tracks to Detroit looks a little sharper... but overall it's very similar to 12z in all respects.

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The upcoming snowstorm will likely join a relatively small number of storms that brought 6" or more to all of the following cities: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Many of those prior storms were epic storms. The list since 1950 is below.
image.png.bb519bedf23b85dafe9467edcb9a011d.png
In short, not only will this storm likely be New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years, it could be a really special event, too.

Jan 82 was the plane crash in the Potomac. How it worked back then: I arrived on campus and there was a note taped to the door; classes canceled because it is going to snow. That was the first I’d heard about it. The next day my dad would tell me, you shovel snow like I sh!t…I still miss the guy.


.
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