Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Yeah im not a fan of kuchera but its probably better than 10:1 for a portion and worse for a portion with sleet so i went 10:1 as a whole (model foreast-wise) 

Agree

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Way drier than 12z brutal dry slot up to nyc

by the time the dry slot happens it would be a mix anyway and theres around a foot on the ground in NYC.

[winterwarlock]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

No it's not warlock. It's 10-15


.

its 6-12 on the map for most of nj...on kuchera its 7-13

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

Refuses to transfer....

[mob1]

The NAM is beautiful. I'd much rather have the thermals trend favorably and then figure out the precipitation distribution and intensity than the other way around. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Refuses to transfer....

That may hurt in terms of lingering snow into Sunday Night/Monday but seems if the primary stays south of PA NYC stays mainly snow.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

should i believe you or my lyin eyes at the supermarket......

I'm going with your eyes. You do seem to live in a particularly snow starved area. 

[SACRUS]

 

18z RGEM

[SACRUS]

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

should i believe you or my lyin eyes at the supermarket......

You can't hide your lyin eyes. 
From your descriptions over the years, you seem to be in a horrible area for snow so I believe you. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18z RGEM

snow arriving by 1-3 AM

 

 

 

 

[eduggs]

Nice run from the RRFS as well. 1" liquid all snow for most of our area as precip. lightens up late Sun. with the dryslot. It looked a tick cooler than 12z.

The details don't matter that much at this point. But what I think is important is that we stop seeing further north trends. So far with the NAM and RRFS at worst the northern solution appears to have held. If we go much past this point it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse the trend at the last minute and we start introducing the possibility of ZR to CNJ and even rain for the S & E coasts of NJ.

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Yeah im not a fan of kuchera but its probably better than 10:1 for a portion and worse for a portion with sleet so i went 10:1 as a whole (model foreast-wise) 

That's why Mt Holly is going higher. Ratios for half the storm could be quite high given ideal snow growth and temps 

[Wxbear25]

500MB on the RGEM features slightly higher heights ahead of the s/w and head weaker confluence over southern Ontario/Quebec when compared with the NAM

[Winterweatherlover]

RGEM a bit warmer than 12Z, precip starts around 3-4:00 am, NYC flips to sleet around 4:00 pm Sunday.

[SACRUS]

 

Mixing by 5/6 PM

 

 

 

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm going with your eyes. You do seem to live in a particularly snow starved area. 

it has been a tough few years. headlines from the south though.....man, those scenes are brutal. we have managed to underperform the last few years. maybe we'll break that trend this time. we do get socked at times. people just seem to hate snow here. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's why Mt Holly is going higher. Ratios for half the storm could be quite high given ideal snow growth and temps 

why do so many dislike kuchera....

[winterwarlock]

hearing Lee Goldberg is 6-12 for many but havent seen a map yet

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

RGEM a bit warmer than 12Z, precip starts around 3-4:00 am, NYC flips to sleet around 4:00 pm Sunday.

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

hearing Lee Goldberg is 6-12 for many but havent seen a map yet

Yeah that’s the best call. More in the very northern parts of NJ and NYS is looking at 12-16

[BoulderWX]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

Yeah another step back. Been consistent in lowering totals. But again 6-10 is still a nice storm. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18z RGEM total QPF (84H)

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1) (84H)

 

 

[jm1220]

If we can manage 1” liquid as snow then I’m pretty confident we can manage 12”, I think the NWS amounts are a little high. If something like the RGEM happens then sleet probably would cut into the accums a decent amount in the city/LI and up to the CT coast. Still time for trends in either direction with this one and if this is more of a SWFE it will try to get as far north as it can. We want a sloppy phase and stronger confluence. 

[Wannabehippie]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Mixing by 5/6 PM

 

 

 

What do the soundings look like?

 

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ehh I’d argue they have been far less accurate than a lot of the smart folks on this board. I can tell you in the C NJ area they have had some hideously aggressive (and wrong) snow forecasts in recent years.

My pet theory is that nws goes aggressive to scare people in to preparing/staying off the roads. It's better from a logistical pov to be over prepared rather than underprepared.

[psv88]

Not worried about the RGEM. NAM got cooler, as did the Euro and Ukie. 

We are locked in for 6-12" areawide.

[psv88]

Just now, MarcmmKU said:

My pet theory is that nws goes aggressive to scare people in to preparing/staying off the roads. It's better from a logistical pov to be over prepared rather than underprepared.

People always bash the NWS but in my view they often do a stellar job, at least for out here. Many times they absolutely nail a forecast which is hard to do. Yes, some forecasts are blown, or maybe only the low end of a warning verifies, but overall i think Upton does a terrific job.

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

RGEM seems to be the warmest model right now and it's still 6-9 inches for the NYC Metro area before any changeover.

[ForestHillWx]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

It doesn’t pop the secondary low until just south of LI; compared to off NC/VA…. What’s that, 500 miles as the crow flys?