psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The UK get me Wet 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: it's just massive Who’s got the cigarettes? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I knew when I saw 200+ posts in an hour that we got smoked. It's going to be a fun week. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Let's hope the Euro shows the "Greatness" thing that @SnowenOutThere was talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, Ji said: This is actually really funny Thank you, it’s all in good fun and it’s an amazing reaction image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Perfect confluence for the Mid Atlantic on the CMC. Massive pummeling incoming. Yes it is and now a nearly closed low Georgia area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, bncho said: Let's hope the Euro shows the "Greatness" thing that @SnowenOutThere was talking about. That was the Ukmet scenario of 12z which it did hold. Tbh everything I’ve seen for 0z runs has moved in that direction (minus the ai gfs slightly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Thank you, it’s all in good fun and it’s an amazing reaction image Imagine the reaction image when the euro does this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just a couple of observations. After the storm the models are showing a pretty dangerous artic outbreak. Like pipe bursting stuff. That cold is legit. Straight out of the arctic. This is also going to be a historic ice storm somewhere in the south. Over an ich of QPF as rain falling into sub 20 degree temps is horrific. I have seen it once before. And it is no joke. Just a massive hit to a large part of the country. Historic if it is being modelled accurately. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 X 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Just a couple of observations. After the storm the models are showing a pretty dangerous artic outbreak. Like pipe bursting stuff. That cold is legit. Straight out of the arctic. This is also going to be a historic ice storm somewhere in the south. Over an ich of QPF as rain falling into sub 20 degree temps is horrific. I have seen it once before. And it is no joke. Just a massive hit to a large part of the country. Historic if it is being modelled accurately. I HATE ice storms with a vengeance in Buda. HOWEVER I will take it IF it will bring DCA 4 feet of pow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Euro has begun 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro starting. Most important run since Jan 2016. @stormtracker, lead the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro out to 4 hours. Very little ticks do far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, bncho said: Euro starting. Most important run since Jan 2016. @stormtracker, lead the way. I think you’re right on this one. We’re past where Feb 20th failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Just a couple of observations. After the storm the models are showing a pretty dangerous artic outbreak. Like pipe bursting stuff. That cold is legit. Straight out of the arctic. This is also going to be a historic ice storm somewhere in the south. Over an ich of QPF as rain falling into sub 20 degree temps is horrific. I have seen it once before. And it is no joke. Just a massive hit to a large part of the country. Historic if it is being modelled accurately. The good news, and we've seen it before ... Snow on th ground, fresh snowpack, will definitely help with radiational cooling and enhance the risk for sub-zero min temps assuming we can decouple. BUT, it can also provide a nice layer of insulation to prevent the intense cold from seeping in the subflooring. Let's hope so anyway! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just a couple of observations. After the storm the models are showing a pretty dangerous artic outbreak. Like pipe bursting stuff. That cold is legit. Straight out of the arctic. This is also going to be a historic ice storm somewhere in the south. Over an ich of QPF as rain falling into sub 20 degree temps is horrific. I have seen it once before. And it is no joke. Just a massive hit to a large part of the country. Historic if it is being modelled accurately. Larry cosgrove just peed his pants 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 WB EURO AI continues to tick south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro AIFS south of 12z but north of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, bncho said: Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution Probably not. Ain’t going to know for sure for another 2-3 days honestly. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Something to watch. Do the AI models lag in the trends of the physical models. Just seems like they are 12 hours behind with what the other models are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, bncho said: Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution Might just a little early to call that, imo. It is just early Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This is for all the great setups in the past that have been ruined by a stupid stubborn baja cutoff that refuses to eject into the flow. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, bncho said: Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution We’re starting to converge on a solution for part one. That was up until 0z a point of contention with the SW coming east. Now that’s more or less settled (hopefully) and we get to see what type of storm rolls east. We still got a couple days to go before we get to the solution with that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO AI I don’t think people realize how ridiculous this AIFS output is in the grand scheme of things. This is a crazy output that would certainly lend credence to a potential for 1 inch or more of QPF for a large portion of this sub forum. Even if you don’t get 1 inch of precip from this set up you can still walk away with 8+ inches of snow. Incredible set up. We have brewing right here. Good times 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: Something to watch. Do the AI models lag in the trends of the physical models. Just seems like they are 12 hours behind with what the other models are doing. That's actually a really good observation. Physics models shifted south from 0z to 18z before shifting back north. AI models starting shifting south 12z to possibly 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, bncho said: Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution I’ve seen this before. The models like to troll us like this. By Thursday they will all show entirely different solutions again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro AIFS south of 12z but north of 18zNo not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Nothing jumping out yet...status quo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The Ai is in a free fall. Lost an inch of qpf since 6z 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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