January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

The NAM would've been one hell of a run

RGEM would have been even better. Better PV placement and less suppression. 

[stormtracker]

ok, so at 120 precip trying some northern movement

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

It’s really shifting south today. Hopefully trend stops

This is the way it works. If southern VA is the bullseye at 120hrs, it'll basically stay put with minor changes. If we're in the bullseye at 120hrs, it's heading north. Always been that way.

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Were Feb. 2010 and January 2016 easier patterns to produce huge storms? Did the guidance ever waver for those two?

Different types of setups for those two. Those were split flow phasers in a pattern where blocking was prevalent. Atmosphere slows down and allows for phasing more easily. This one is more overrunning with blocking to the north to anchor in a cold high and maintain a general WSW to ENE progression of waves ejecting out of the southern plains. 

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It still moves the SW energy east so I'm okay with it existing for now. Just need to get that piece east to get a storm... speaking of which so far the GFS is not seeming too enthused. 

The upper level flow is still very much NS dominant. Your idea of the southern stream energy coming out in pieces makes more sense than one big storm imo and,  frankly, is what the h5 map shows on the gfs. We’re up against atmospheric memory rn.

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Gfs isn’t going to do it. Hope it’s just being stubborn but with the ai going a bit south you wonder. I don’t really ever consider the icon but it was in the no go camp and I’d argue the 18z rgem was as well. 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM would have been even better. Better PV placement and less suppression. 

 

[stormtracker]

Gets light snow up to us at 132/135

[aldie 22]

What storm was it recently where we were in the bullseye but there was some suppression risk and then the bleed started to happen and it ultimately ended up a Norfolk blizzard?

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS is a step back from 12z as it doesn't have any real interaction between the NS and SW. However, as mentioned in my post still a chance we get a storm from the NS if it dives enough south. As for the RGEM and NAM they both look good I like them as they have NS energy entering into where it may capture the SW like every other model. 

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is the way it works. If southern VA is the bullseye at 120hrs, it'll basically stay put with minor changes. If we're in the bullseye at 120hrs, it's heading north. Always been that way.

From a N stream system or a Southern stream system view in a fast moving environment, these two scenarios make sense.. and suck 

[stormtracker]

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

 

I didn’t look. Saw poster above allude to rgem. Just looked at the 18z icon and gfs runs. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Manges to get us our consolation prize with the NS scooping up the leftover moisture. Which, while obviously not what we want, is nice to have as a backup. 

[clskinsfan]

Man. That would be a historic storm for NC. Seems we have been saying that alot for the southern folks over the past decade. 

[Warm Nose]

Relax ... 

1. There's a storm

2. There's plenty of cold

Two things we haven't had much of recently. It'll play out over the next few days be happy for anything more than SnowTV given our recent luck.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ai GFS is a potential 2 wave long duration system. Yes, went south but still honking for a major event.

[MN Transplant]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Manges to get us our consolation prize with the NS scooping up the leftover moisture. Which, while obviously not what we want, is nice to have as a backup. 

Exactly.  This is a fail as far as what we want, but that is a solid northern stream vort that does some good work for us.  Still a couple to a few inches of snow with temps in the teens.

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

We all good yall...we know how this game goes.  Nobody should even think about rising and falling rn

[Terpeast]

18z vs 12z gfs had some tradeoffs. The sw vort was a step back, but the nrn stream vort dug more and heights rose more in front of it, plus the high weakened by 4mb shifted NW. so thats another path to a minor win here while S VA and NC get the max. 

[bncho]

GFS not bad

[MillvilleWx]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

18z aigfs now looks more like the 12z euro

It’s worse than the Euro for sure. It’s like a cross between Euro and Icon. The N/S absolutely destroys any chance that run. The 500mb pattern is night and day from  the last two runs. The 5H vort panels say it all. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well....I HAD a dream

[Alfoman]

Feel like the GFS has recently been more typically holding back energy in the SW in the medium range after overamplifying it in the longer range (168 hr and up) and/or shearing STJ energy as it propogates eastward. I don't think its a possibility we can ignore even with EPS/UKMET/CMC not taking on the same evolution. 

First part of the system feels very blizzard of 88-ish?

[mitchnick]

As for the AIGFS, look what's shown up over the Dakotas this run that nothing at 12z and didn't exist at 6z. Our little friend again.

[mappy]

Geez Randy, you had to go and make a thread 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It’s worse than the Euro for sure. It’s like a cross between Euro and Icon. The N/S absolutely destroys any chance that run. The 500mb pattern is night and day from  the last two runs. The 5H vort panels say it all. 

It'll be a long week. Just have to hope that we don't lose the SW. Otherwise its an even longer week with the NS. 

[Quasievil]

I don't dislike this - precip field tugs more north compared to 12Z. If GFS had a bullseye this far out, I'd be worried - this is inline with what we typically see from the GFS in previous big events.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

As for the AIGFS, look what's shown up over the Dakotas this run that nothing at 12z and didn't exist at 6z. Our little friend again.

The kicker is inevitable Mitch. We have endured 10 years of this failure my friend. 

[Conway7305]

Be interesting to see the 18z GFS ensembles.