Thrasher Fan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Quite a jog south on HRRR. Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 What are the sites you got to track current conditions (upper levels, water vapor)? I use Ewall WPC surface COD SPC Any other good ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Thrasher Fan said: Quite a jog south on HRRR. Hmmm Map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Absolutely insane cold temps across the Midwest and Northeast this weekend as this storm is occurring. Lots of below zero readings. Been a long time since I’ve seen this kind of cold and it looks locked in for a few weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Curious what you guys think. Can sleet accumulate to cause tree damage or power outages? I have never experienced a sleet storm that has stuck to anything other than the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Cold rain incoming on the HRRR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Cold rain incoming on the HRRR . Hour 48 on HRRR? Not sure I would use that but ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 HRRR is wayyyy out there right now. More accuracy would exist much closer to game time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Hour 48 on HRRR? Not sure I would use that but ok.WELL WRAL USES IT.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Cold rain incoming on the HRRR . Surprised it would be just a cold rain if it moved south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Cold rain incoming on the HRRR . While I would not put much stock in it, I would welcome that outcome. At least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I think the HRRR looks fine. Shows the CAD digging in and begins to show the interaction of the low with the CAD, initiating precipitation in our area. It is in line with the other models that go out further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ya, that rain will be so cold, it freezes 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, JoshM said: Ya, that rain will be so cold, it freezes This is also mid January, when the sun can't help warm the blacktop as much, so 31/32 and rain has a much higher chance of truly being freezing rain than if this were mid to late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Cold rain incoming on the HRRR . Negative, Batman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 That was the first sun angle post. Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post. . 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 29 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Map? That HRRR run couldn't really be depicted from a single image map. It was the run in the early hours versus its previous one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, PackGrad05 said: That was the first sun angle post. Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post. . Sun angle 100% makes a difference on black top for winter weather events here. I saw it last year when we were 28 with light freezing rain and trees were glazed and roads in my development were wet. Roads that barely anyone traveled that day. I'm not taking about losing accumulation etc. I'm taking sensible impacts on roadways. Same as up North. A blizzard in mid January meant side roads were likely going to be white a few days whereas the same temp in February did not keep roadways as icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 A question on the NWS ice forecast. Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates? It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something. And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots. We do not really get ice storms like that up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 30 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said: Curious what you guys think. Can sleet accumulate to cause tree damage or power outages? I have never experienced a sleet storm that has stuck to anything other than the ground. I can't imagine a scenario where that would happen, although anything is possible... I would hedge against massively and always consider sleet a saving grace when it comes to power outages 99.99% of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Ander said: A question on the NWS ice forecast. Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates? It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something. And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots. We do not really get ice storms like that up there. That ice forecast is freezing rain accrual. Sleet gets counted as snow accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Ander said: A question on the NWS ice forecast. Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates? It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something. And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots. We do not really get ice storms like that up there. Freezing rain is separate from sleet. Freezing rain is accrual which accumulates on trees, ground, power lines, etc. That's ice accumulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details With last system last weekend, HRRR was consistently warmer than obs for surface temperatures and didn't have a good handle on radiative influences in my opinion, but it did indeed do quite well with overall depiction of the small areas that would end up with some token flakes / a dusting (in NC at least), much better than the NAM. However, way too far out to put much stock in the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 That was the first sun angle post. Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post. .Ground temps something something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 35 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said: Curious what you guys think. Can sleet accumulate to cause tree damage or power outages? I have never experienced a sleet storm that has stuck to anything other than the ground. I've been through a storm that had 5 inches of nothing but sleet. Not a problem for trees but flat roofs on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Justicebork said: Ground temps something something . No, ground temps are good.... this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Models still trending slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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