January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Thrasher Fan]

Quite a jog south on HRRR. Hmmm

[strongwxnc]

What are the sites you got to track current conditions (upper levels, water vapor)?
I use

Ewall

WPC surface

COD

SPC

 

Any other good ones?

 

  

[Snow dog]

1 minute ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Quite a jog south on HRRR. Hmmm

Map?

[Brick Tamland]

[Upstate Tiger]

Absolutely insane cold temps across the Midwest and Northeast this weekend as this storm is occurring.  Lots of below zero readings.  Been a long time since I’ve seen this kind of cold and it looks locked in for a few weeks.  

[Blacksburg Coach]

Curious what you guys think. Can sleet accumulate to cause tree damage or power outages? I have never experienced a sleet storm that has stuck to anything other than the ground.

[WiseWeather]

Cold rain incoming on the HRRR


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[Brick Tamland]

[Grayman]

2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Cold rain incoming on the HRRR


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Hour 48 on HRRR? Not sure I would use that but ok.

[Buddy1987]

HRRR is wayyyy out there right now. More accuracy would exist much closer to game time.

[WiseWeather]

Hour 48 on HRRR? Not sure I would use that but ok.

WELL WRAL USES IT.


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[olafminesaw]

Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details

[lilj4425]

4 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Cold rain incoming on the HRRR


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Surprised it would be just a cold rain if it moved south.

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Cold rain incoming on the HRRR


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While I would not put much stock in it, I would welcome that outcome. At least here. 

[PackGrad05]

I think the HRRR looks fine.  Shows the CAD digging in and begins to show the interaction of the low with the CAD, initiating precipitation in our area.  It is in line with the other models that go out further.  

[JoshM]

Ya, that rain will be so cold, it freezes

[USCG RS]

6 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Ya, that rain will be so cold, it freezes

This is also mid January, when the sun can't help warm the blacktop as much, so 31/32 and rain has a much higher chance of truly being freezing rain than if this were mid to late Feb. 

[Blue Ridge]

15 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Cold rain incoming on the HRRR


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Negative, Batman 

[PackGrad05]

That was the first sun angle post.
Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post.


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[Thrasher Fan]

29 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Map?

That HRRR run couldn't really be depicted from a single image map. It was the run in the early hours versus its previous one.

[USCG RS]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

That was the first sun angle post.
Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post.


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Sun angle 100% makes a difference on black top for winter weather events here. I saw it last year when we were 28 with light freezing rain and trees were glazed and roads in my development were wet. Roads that barely anyone traveled that day. 

I'm not taking about losing accumulation etc. I'm taking sensible impacts on roadways. 

Same as up North. A blizzard in mid January meant side roads were likely going to be white a few days whereas the same temp in February did not keep roadways as icy. 

[Ander]

A question on the NWS ice forecast.  

Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates?  

It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something.

And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots.  We do not really get ice storms like that up there.

[NCBlizzard]

30 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Curious what you guys think. Can sleet accumulate to cause tree damage or power outages? I have never experienced a sleet storm that has stuck to anything other than the ground.

I can't imagine a scenario where that would happen, although anything is possible... I would hedge against massively and always consider sleet a saving grace when it comes to power outages 99.99% of times.

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, Ander said:

A question on the NWS ice forecast.  

Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates?  

It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something.

And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots.  We do not really get ice storms like that up there.

That ice forecast is freezing rain accrual. Sleet gets counted as snow accumulation.

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, Ander said:

A question on the NWS ice forecast.  

Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates?  

It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something.

And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots.  We do not really get ice storms like that up there.

Freezing rain is separate from sleet. 

Freezing rain is accrual which accumulates on trees, ground, power lines, etc. That's ice accumulation 

[NCBlizzard]

25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details

With last system last weekend, HRRR was consistently warmer than obs for surface temperatures and didn't have a good handle on radiative influences in my opinion, but it did indeed do quite well with overall depiction of the small areas that would end up with some token flakes / a dusting (in NC at least), much better than the NAM. However, way too far out to put much stock in the HRRR.

[Justicebork]

That was the first sun angle post.
Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post.


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Ground temps something something


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[Moonhowl]

35 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Curious what you guys think. Can sleet accumulate to cause tree damage or power outages? I have never experienced a sleet storm that has stuck to anything other than the ground.

I've been through a storm that had 5 inches of nothing but sleet.  Not a problem for trees but flat roofs on the other hand...

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Just now, Justicebork said:

Ground temps something something


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No, ground temps are good.... this time

[wncsnow]

Models still trending slower