January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Upstate Tiger]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

My guess is there will a "finger" of precip that streaks out ahead of the main SLP. It will be purely driven by the jet that will start setting up tomorrow night. There will be a ton of virga. That first wave will likely be snow in the northern third of NC. The question is how long will it last? Prob not too long lol.

Wouldn't that cool and moisten the column and potentially give us a better front end thump of snow?  I know I'm grasping...

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe a step in the right direction.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

My guess is there will a "finger" of precip that streaks out ahead of the main SLP. It will be purely driven by the jet that will start setting up tomorrow night. There will be a ton of virga. That first wave will likely be snow in the northern third of NC. The question is how long will it last? Prob not too long lol.

Yes, and in my experience these are not modeled well, partially why precip tends to always begin early. Would not shock me to see this look as we get closer that could at least give areas some flakes that aren’t modeled now but unfortunately this wouldn’t amount to much 

[Thrasher Fan]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Once again the Euro thermal profiles for ZR/Sleet do not make sense. I would rely more on the GFS for that part. 

I can remember case studies being planned back in the early 2000s about this when we had want felt like ice storm after ice storm in the SE. Wonder if those ever happened or if nothing could be added to the models to better identify it.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Maybe a step in the right direction.

Right direction being an ice apocalypse in the triangle? 

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yes, and in my experience these are not modeled well, partially why precip tends to always begin early. Would not shock me to see this look as we get closer that could at least give areas some flakes that aren’t modeled now but unfortunately this wouldn’t amount to much 

Some of the hi res models will prob start showing it tomorrow at some point.

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Once again the Euro thermal profiles for ZR/Sleet do not make sense. I would rely more on the GFS for that part. 

Is it also fair to say it's handling of the CAD also makes it's handling of the surface low track suspect as well?

[Grayman]

Could anyone be so kind to explain a skew chart sounding for sleet vs fr rain? I guess what I’m asking is how can I look at a chart and tell if it’s showing freezing rain versus sleet for a given area?

[BooneWX]

Good luck scouring that wedge. It’s not an in-situ wedge, it’s a mega wedgie on steroids 

[Thrasher Fan]

KFCC has expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include south metro ATL counties.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1243 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

GAZ030>034-041>051-053>062-072>076-230800-
/O.EXB.KFFC.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1500Z/
Polk-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton-Gwinnett-Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-
South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-Newton-Morgan-Greene-
Taliaferro-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-
Hancock-Warren-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-Glascock-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Jackson, Milledgeville, Sparta,
Madison, Newnan, East Point, Eatonton, Monroe, Dallas, Stockbridge,
Cedartown, Douglasville, Decatur, Greensboro, Warrenton, Griffin,
Peachtree City, Monticello, GIbson, Marietta, Atlanta, Conyers,
Louisville, Crawfordville, Riverdale, Lawrenceville, Covington, Gray,
Sandersville, and Bremen
1243 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around
  four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central,
  northwest, and west central Georgia.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm
kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster
cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take
water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive
in case you become stranded.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Good luck scouring that wedge. It’s not an in-situ wedge, it’s a mega wedgie on steroids 

It’s not going to get scoured. I think you see everything trend colder at ground level. It’s already stronger than 99% of wedges we’ve seen in last 10 years and usually they only model stronger as you get closer. And none of them were fed by a 1040+

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s not going to get scoured. I think you see everything trend colder at ground level. It’s already stronger than 99% of wedges we’ve seen in last 10 years and usually they only model stronger as you get closer. And none of them were fed by a 1040+

We need deeper (vertical) cad in our area and need it to hold as long as possible.  Looks to be happening (slightly) on this latest run

[PackGrad05]

17 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Could anyone be so kind to explain a skew chart sounding for sleet vs fr rain? I guess what I’m asking is how can I look at a chart and tell if it’s showing freezing rain versus sleet for a given area?

Typically what you look for is the size of the warm nose (above freezing layer) in the mid levels.  If it is a very small warm nose with a robust lower level still below freezing, it is typically sleet.

If it is a much larger warm nose that extends close to surface, freezing rain.  

[eyewall]

23 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Is it also fair to say it's handling of the CAD also makes it's handling of the surface low track suspect as well?

Probably not enough to significantly change the overall setup I would think but  certainly it could somewhat. 

[wake4est]

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I KNOW a lot of that west of 85 will be sleet. For triangle folks, this to me would mean at least 0.5” and up to 0.75” of accrual if it was light instead of heavy. As in, December 2002 redux

[Blacksburg Coach]

[HKY_WX]

[btownheel]

I KNOW a lot of that west of 85 will be sleet. For triangle folks, this to me would mean at least 0.5” and up to 0.75” of accrual if it was light instead of heavy. As in, December 2002 redux

Yup. Effectively, draw a 45 degree NE line from Charlotte North into Va. on the west/upper side of it, cut 75% of that qpf off the zr totals and add it to sleet and that should be about right.


.

[CaryWx]

Any chance these precip amounts are overdone.  Maybe way overdone?

[Blacksburg Coach]

2 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Question? If I had a sled on top of Fancy gap and rode down the mountain, would I reach statesville, or just keep heading south to Rock Hill!!!

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Any chance these precip amounts are overdone.  Maybe way overdone?

Man idk.. that’s an stj extreme connection from Mexico. Gonna juicy juice up the lift and ring out everything. Especially if the primary tries to cut some the southeast component is gonna rip. 

[Blue Ridge]

1 minute ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Question? If I had a sled on top of Fancy gap and road down the mountain, would I reach statesville, or just keep heading south to Rock Hill!!!

The I-85 black hole would suck you in and drag you all the way to Lake Hartwell

[Blacksburg Coach]

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Question? If I had a sled on top of Fancy gap and rode down the mountain, would I reach statesville, or just keep heading south to Rock Hill!!!

You’d make it to Columbia if that model run verifies.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

You’d make it to Columbia if that model run verifies.

 

[Snowncanes]

GFS has most of NC 35 or below for the foreseeable future. Could mean anything that falls sticks around for a bit. 

[BornAgain13]

FWIW, Brad Panovich says the GFS is better in the short range, the Euro is better in long range. 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Any chance these precip amounts are overdone.  Maybe way overdone?

Of course they can be overdone as that’s pretty much always the case along with the chance they can be underdone.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

FWIW, Brad Panovich says the GFS is better in the short range, the Euro is better in long range. 

Also reading per Tomer Burg is saying there's a known issue with Euro regarding PL vs ZR so we may escape damaging ice.