Thrasher Fan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This has been consistent for several runs of the GFS now. QPF never been a problem on that model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Would not be surprised to see flood watches issued for the N GA mtns and southern NC mtns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 28 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said: Had to do it! That looks familiar. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 21 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said: This has been consistent for several runs of the GFS now. QPF never been a problem on that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I fully expect with CAMs that we will start to tick colder in wedge areas over the next 48 hours (because, always). Will that be enough for more sleet? We will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro could be interesting... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That looks familiar.Yeh, miss me with that craziness until we have full model agreement sub 72 hrs out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We talked about wanting to see egg on Eric Webb's face, well he's doing the backstroke in an omelet swimming pool right now. The annoying thing he is not even acknowledging it. He's just carrying on commenting about the ice storm as if he didn't confidently predict there was no way this was going north and implying that NE snow weenies are stupid, dishonest, or both (unless he issued a mea culpa post that I missed). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro just folded like a cheap suit on CAD strength.Welcome to Sleetmaggedon 2026 my NC brethren! . 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro sniffing out CAD cold better. Precip looks earlier and south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro and GFS surface reflections look very similar at 54 with timing and precip types. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro is south with the first part of the storm for sure. We could still catch the southern edge of that frontogenesis if it keeps trending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro with a little front end snow at 60 for NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: Euro with a little front end snow at 60 for NC Yeah first time its started us up here with snow in days. Hmm.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: That looks familiar. I fell out! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I asked CoPilot to provide a forecast for this weekend, specifically for zip 27006. I asked it to use the latest model guidance from today. This is it's response. Seems fair. Below is a true forecaster‑style synthesis using: Global models (12Z) GFS ECMWF Canadian (CMC) Ensemble systems (12Z) LREF clusters (as directly referenced by NWS) GEFS EPS Regional / short‑range models (12Z trends where available) NAM NAM 3 km HREF (cluster signal discussed by NWS Raleigh using 12Z warm‑nose behavior) Official NWS forecast discussions using 12Z model data NWS Raleigh AFD (explicit 12Z LREF cluster interpretation) NWS Greensboro / Triad winter storm watch (timing & p‑type evolution) My Integrated Forecast (Using All Model Classes) SATURDAY — Jan 24 My Analysis of The 12Z Global + Regional Guidance All 12Z global models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) bring deep moisture northward during the day with a strong 1035–1050 mb Arctic high wedged into NC. That wedge is seen clearly in the 12Z ensembles that NWS Raleigh noted, with all LREF clusters showing precip across the region — not a miss scenario. But the critical 12Z signal is this: 12Z LREF clusters and deterministic guidance show a warm‑nose aloft (850 mb) intruding well inland — possibly as far west as the NW Piedmont. This is the decisive factor for Advance, NC. Expected Evolution Morning: Dry but overcast. Still locked into cold CAD. Early Afternoon: Precip arrives from SW → NE. Onset likely snow, because surface temps remain mid–upper 20s. Mid–Late Afternoon: Rapid transition to sleet as warm nose strengthens. Evening: Some freezing rain possible as the warm layer deepens. My Forecast for Saturday High: 28–31°F Low: 17–20°F Snow at onset: 0.5–1.5 inches Sleet: Increasingly dominant after mid‑afternoon Freezing rain: Light glazing begins toward evening This is a sleet-forward day — not a heavy snow day — consistent with the 12Z warm-nose intrusion highlighted by NWS. SUNDAY — Jan 25 (Highest-Impact Day) Model Consensus from 12Z Runs The 12Z ECMWF remains warmer aloft than the 12Z GFS, favoring significant icing. NWS Raleigh explicitly notes: “The majority of 12Z LREF solutions indicate a warm nose making its way well inland.” This matches the track of the Miller‑B coastal redevelopment, which typically drives warm advection at 850mb over the NC Piedmont. The 12Z NAM/NAM3km tend to exaggerate CAD, but even they show warming aloft by Sunday morning. Expected Evolution Early Morning: Mainly sleet + freezing rain Late Morning–Afternoon: Freezing rain dominates as warm nose deepens (+1 to +4°C at 850 mb typical in this pattern). Evening: Precip wanes; final precip may flip back briefly to sleet or snow as column cools. My Forecast for Sunday High: 25–28°F Low: 22–24°F Freezing rain: 0.25–0.50 inches possible (locally more) Sleet: Additional 0.5–1 inch Snow: Minimal additional accumulation This aligns with NWS Greensboro’s forecast for a wintry mix including freezing rain under a winter storm watch. Impact Level: HIGH Power outages possible. Travel nearly impossible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Quickly goes over to ice but closer to GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Yeah first time its started us up here with snow in days. Hmm.. Don't get pulled back in!! It's just trying to play with you. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Powerful CAD signature that looks more robust than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 30 straight hours of precip for NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Wedge on euro is much stronger looking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed This. Need some energy out ahead of the low before warm nose arrives 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gotta pray 700 doesn't torch to the extent it's straight liquid falling out of the sky rather than sleet meatballs. Frontogenesis is pretty intense rolling thru, so i'm hoping maybe we can somehow keep the column slightly cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Wedge on euro is much stronger looking are you talking 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is not good for us in the CAD prone areas. Dare I use the word crippling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This. Need some energy out ahead of the low before warm nose arrives My guess is there will a "finger" of precip that streaks out ahead of the main SLP. It will be purely driven by the 150kt jet streak that will start setting up tomorrow night over the northeast. There will be a ton of virga. That first wave will likely be snow in the northern third of NC. The question is how long will it last? Prob not too long lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Once again the Euro thermal profiles for ZR/Sleet do not make sense. I would rely more on the GFS for that part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xAllVolsx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I’m going with this. See ya next week folks! Below is a full, model‑guided breakdown for ZIP 37814 (Morristown, TN) using the latest forecast data available today. This includes expected snow totals, hour‑by‑hour timing, GFS vs. ECMWF vs. NAM comparison, and a final blended forecast. Summary A significant winter storm is expected Saturday–Sunday in Morristown (37814), with snow, sleet, and periods of mixed precipitation. Model guidance ranges from moderate to high snowfall, with the most aggressive solutions showing 6–10 inches. A blended, conservative forecast currently supports 4–7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. 37814, Morristown, Tennessee 1. Expected Snow Totals (Model‑Based) GFS (American Model) 6–9 inches of total snow/sleet. Strong cold air intrusion supports mostly snow after initial mix. Slightly warmer mid‑levels early Saturday → brief sleet. ECMWF (European Model) 7–10 inches, highest of the major models. Colder thermal profile → more snow, less sleet. Stronger storm track → heavier banding potential. NAM (Short‑Range Model) 4–7 inches, lowest of the three. Warmer nose aloft Saturday afternoon → more sleet. Heavier snow returns Saturday night into Sunday morning. High‑Resolution Ensembles (HREF / GEFS / EPS) Mean: 5–8 inches Upper range: 10–12 inches (low probability but possible if banding sets up) 2. Hour‑by‑Hour Timing (Approximate) Saturday Morning (6 AM – 12 PM) Mostly cloudy, cold. Precipitation begins late morning to midday. Type: Light snow or snow/sleet mix. Saturday Afternoon (12 PM – 6 PM) Precipitation increases. Mix of snow, sleet, and pockets of freezing rain depending on warm layer aloft. Accumulation: 1–3 inches by sunset. Saturday Evening – Overnight (6 PM – 3 AM) Cold air deepens. Transition to mostly snow. Heaviest snowfall rates likely during this period. Additional accumulation: 3–6 inches. Sunday Morning (3 AM – 12 PM) Snow continues, possibly moderate at times. Gradual tapering late morning. Additional accumulation: 1–2 inches. Sunday Afternoon (12 PM – 6 PM) Light snow or flurries. Temperatures fall sharply late day. 3. Model‑by‑Model Comparison Table Model Storm Track Thermal Profile Precip Type Snow Total Notes GFS Slightly north Marginal warm nose early Snow → mix → snow 6–9" Balanced solution ECMWF Farther south (colder) Strong cold air Mostly snow 7–10" Highest totals NAM Warmer early Pronounced warm nose More sleet 4–7" Lower totals Ensembles Consensus Mixed Mostly snow 5–8" Most reliable blend 4. Final Blended Forecast (All Models) Snowfall Likely: 4–7 inches Possible: 8–10 inches (if ECMWF verifies or heavy banding sets up) Lower end: 3–4 inches (if NAM’s warmer solution dominates) Sleet / Mix 1–3 hours of sleet possible Saturday afternoon. More sleet = lower snow totals. Confidence High that a significant winter storm occurs. Moderate on exact totals due to warm‑layer uncertainty. Increasing confidence in heavy snow Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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