January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Thrasher Fan]

This has been consistent for several runs of the GFS now. QPF never been a problem on that model

[franklin NCwx]

Would not be surprised to see flood watches issued for the N GA mtns and southern NC mtns

[Brick Tamland]

28 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Had to do it!

That looks familiar.

[CaryWx]

21 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

This has been consistent for several runs of the GFS now. QPF never been a problem on that model

[NorthHillsWx]

I fully expect with CAMs that we will start to tick colder in wedge areas over the next 48 hours (because, always). Will that be enough for more sleet? We will see

[wake4est]

Euro could be interesting...

[btownheel]

That looks familiar.

Yeh, miss me with that craziness until we have full model agreement sub 72 hrs out.


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[cbmclean]

We talked about wanting to see egg on Eric Webb's face, well he's doing the backstroke in an omelet swimming pool right now.  The annoying thing he is not even acknowledging it.  He's just carrying on commenting about the ice storm as if he didn't confidently predict there was no way this was going north and implying that NE snow weenies are stupid, dishonest, or both (unless he issued a mea culpa post that I missed).   

[btownheel]

Euro just folded like a cheap suit on CAD strength.

Welcome to Sleetmaggedon 2026 my NC brethren!


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[wake4est]

Euro sniffing out CAD cold better. Precip looks earlier and south.

[Upstate Tiger]

Euro and GFS surface reflections look very similar at 54 with timing and precip types.

[wncsnow]

Euro is south with the first part of the storm for sure. We could still catch the southern edge of that frontogenesis if it keeps trending. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Euro with a little front end snow at 60 for NC

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Euro with a little front end snow at 60 for NC

Yeah first time its started us up here with snow in days. Hmm..

[WinstonSalemArlington]

15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That looks familiar.

I fell out! Lol

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

I asked CoPilot to provide a forecast for this weekend, specifically for zip 27006.  I asked it to use the latest model guidance from today.  This is it's response.  Seems fair.

Below is a true forecaster‑style synthesis using:

Global models (12Z)

• GFS
• ECMWF
• Canadian (CMC)

Ensemble systems (12Z)

• LREF clusters (as directly referenced by NWS)
• GEFS
• EPS

Regional / short‑range models (12Z trends where available)

• NAM
• NAM 3 km
• HREF (cluster signal discussed by NWS Raleigh using 12Z warm‑nose behavior)

Official NWS forecast discussions using 12Z model data

• NWS Raleigh AFD (explicit 12Z LREF cluster interpretation)
• NWS Greensboro / Triad winter storm watch (timing & p‑type evolution)

---

My Integrated Forecast (Using All Model Classes)

SATURDAY — Jan 24

My Analysis of The 12Z Global + Regional Guidance

All 12Z global models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) bring deep moisture northward during the day with a strong 1035–1050 mb Arctic high wedged into NC. That wedge is seen clearly in the 12Z ensembles that NWS Raleigh noted, with all LREF clusters showing precip across the region — not a miss scenario.

But the critical 12Z signal is this:

12Z LREF clusters and deterministic guidance show a warm‑nose aloft (850 mb) intruding well inland — possibly as far west as the NW Piedmont.

This is the decisive factor for Advance, NC.

Expected Evolution

• Morning: Dry but overcast. Still locked into cold CAD.
• Early Afternoon: Precip arrives from SW → NE. Onset likely snow, because surface temps remain mid–upper 20s.
• Mid–Late Afternoon: Rapid transition to sleet as warm nose strengthens.
• Evening: Some freezing rain possible as the warm layer deepens.

My Forecast for Saturday

• High: 28–31°F
• Low: 17–20°F
• Snow at onset: 0.5–1.5 inches
• Sleet: Increasingly dominant after mid‑afternoon
• Freezing rain: Light glazing begins toward evening

This is a sleet-forward day — not a heavy snow day — consistent with the 12Z warm-nose intrusion highlighted by NWS.

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SUNDAY — Jan 25 (Highest-Impact Day)

Model Consensus from 12Z Runs

The 12Z ECMWF remains warmer aloft than the 12Z GFS, favoring significant icing. NWS Raleigh explicitly notes:

“The majority of 12Z LREF solutions indicate a warm nose making its way well inland.”

This matches the track of the Miller‑B coastal redevelopment, which typically drives warm advection at 850mb over the NC Piedmont. 

The 12Z NAM/NAM3km tend to exaggerate CAD, but even they show warming aloft by Sunday morning.

Expected Evolution

• Early Morning: Mainly sleet + freezing rain
• Late Morning–Afternoon: Freezing rain dominates as warm nose deepens (+1 to +4°C at 850 mb typical in this pattern).
• Evening: Precip wanes; final precip may flip back briefly to sleet or snow as column cools.

My Forecast for Sunday

• High: 25–28°F
• Low: 22–24°F
• Freezing rain: 0.25–0.50 inches possible (locally more)
• Sleet: Additional 0.5–1 inch
• Snow: Minimal additional accumulation

This aligns with NWS Greensboro’s forecast for a wintry mix including freezing rain under a winter storm watch.

Impact Level: HIGH
Power outages possible. Travel nearly impossible.

[Upstate Tiger]

Quickly goes over to ice but closer to GFS

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Yeah first time its started us up here with snow in days. Hmm..

Don't get pulled back in!!  It's just trying to play with you.

[olafminesaw]

It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed 

[wake4est]

Powerful CAD signature that looks more robust than 0z

[Upstate Tiger]

30 straight hours of precip for NC.

[NorthHillsWx]

Wedge on euro is much stronger looking

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's all about speeding up the onset in order to get snow south of the border. South shifts won't really help if onset is delayed 

This. Need some energy out ahead of the low before warm nose arrives 

[Buddy1987]

Gotta pray 700 doesn't torch to the extent it's straight liquid falling out of the sky rather than sleet meatballs. Frontogenesis is pretty intense rolling thru, so i'm hoping maybe we can somehow keep the column slightly cooler.

[wake4est]

incoming

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wedge on euro is much stronger looking

are you talking 6z?

[HWY316wx]

This is not good for us in the CAD prone areas.  Dare I use the word crippling? 

[HKY_WX]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This. Need some energy out ahead of the low before warm nose arrives 

My guess is there will a "finger" of precip that streaks out ahead of the main SLP. It will be purely driven by the 150kt jet streak that will start setting up tomorrow night over the northeast. There will be a ton of virga. That first wave will likely be snow in the northern third of NC. The question is how long will it last? Prob not too long lol.

[eyewall]

Once again the Euro thermal profiles for ZR/Sleet do not make sense. I would rely more on the GFS for that part. 

[xAllVolsx]

I’m going with this. See ya next week folks!
 

Below is a full, model‑guided breakdown for ZIP 37814 (Morristown, TN) using the latest forecast data available today. This includes expected snow totals, hour‑by‑hour timing, GFS vs. ECMWF vs. NAM comparison, and a final blended forecast.

 

 Summary

A significant winter storm is expected Saturday–Sunday in Morristown (37814), with snow, sleet, and periods of mixed precipitation. Model guidance ranges from moderate to high snowfall, with the most aggressive solutions showing 6–10 inches. A blended, conservative forecast currently supports 4–7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

 

37814, Morristown, Tennessee

 

 

 1. Expected Snow Totals (Model‑Based)

GFS (American Model)

• 6–9 inches of total snow/sleet.

• Strong cold air intrusion supports mostly snow after initial mix.

• Slightly warmer mid‑levels early Saturday → brief sleet.

ECMWF (European Model)

• 7–10 inches, highest of the major models.

• Colder thermal profile → more snow, less sleet.

• Stronger storm track → heavier banding potential.

NAM (Short‑Range Model)

• 4–7 inches, lowest of the three.

• Warmer nose aloft Saturday afternoon → more sleet.

• Heavier snow returns Saturday night into Sunday morning.

High‑Resolution Ensembles (HREF / GEFS / EPS)

• Mean: 5–8 inches

• Upper range: 10–12 inches (low probability but possible if banding sets up)

 

 2. Hour‑by‑Hour Timing (Approximate)

Saturday Morning (6 AM – 12 PM)

• Mostly cloudy, cold.

• Precipitation begins late morning to midday.

• Type: Light snow or snow/sleet mix.

Saturday Afternoon (12 PM – 6 PM)

• Precipitation increases.

• Mix of snow, sleet, and pockets of freezing rain depending on warm layer aloft.

• Accumulation: 1–3 inches by sunset.

Saturday Evening – Overnight (6 PM – 3 AM)

• Cold air deepens.

• Transition to mostly snow.

• Heaviest snowfall rates likely during this period.

• Additional accumulation: 3–6 inches.

Sunday Morning (3 AM – 12 PM)

• Snow continues, possibly moderate at times.

• Gradual tapering late morning.

• Additional accumulation: 1–2 inches.

Sunday Afternoon (12 PM – 6 PM)

• Light snow or flurries.

• Temperatures fall sharply late day.

 

 3. Model‑by‑Model Comparison Table

Model	Storm Track	Thermal Profile	Precip Type	Snow Total	Notes
GFS	Slightly north	Marginal warm nose early	Snow → mix → snow	6–9"	Balanced solution
ECMWF	Farther south (colder)	Strong cold air	Mostly snow	7–10"	Highest totals
NAM	Warmer early	Pronounced warm nose	More sleet	4–7"	Lower totals
Ensembles	Consensus	Mixed	Mostly snow	5–8"	Most reliable blend

 

 

4. Final Blended Forecast (All Models)

Snowfall

• Likely: 4–7 inches

• Possible: 8–10 inches (if ECMWF verifies or heavy banding sets up)

• Lower end: 3–4 inches (if NAM’s warmer solution dominates)

Sleet / Mix

• 1–3 hours of sleet possible Saturday afternoon.

• More sleet = lower snow totals.

Confidence

• High that a significant winter storm occurs.

• Moderate on exact totals due to warm‑layer uncertainty.

• Increasing confidence in heavy snow Saturday night.