January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[franklin NCwx]

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Couple days of trends like that and we are sitting really good. That could be a lot to ask for though.

If it leaves a little more of that energy out west its a more snow to sleet event. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Look at QPF trend from 12z to 18z for the Northeast. It did NOT go north and in fact was the exact trend we want, strung out and not as amped 

[Blacksburg Coach]

I'm going to take that GFS run and call it a day. Thank you everyone and goodnight!

[buckeyefan1]

16 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

We were riding our kneeboards behind atvs. It was almost like being in the water. Not my smartest move but omg we had fun!

I did this last when I was living on Lady's Island a few years ago from a truck with chains   The whole neighborhood had a blast with some vehicles pulling john boats

[SnowDawg]

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

If it leaves a little more of that energy out west its a more snow to sleet event. 

Only thing that makes me feel this has a chance to actually at least move partially in that direction is that this has essentiallly been what every system has done for a few years now. As we get closer the northern stream gets more progressive and stronger and suppresses the flow in front of the weaker sheared southern wave. Thorn in our side all those times before but could be our saving grace this time. IF we can get it to keep trending. 

[eyewall]

It looks like a colder wedge hence more sleet. 

[BornAgain13]

As much as I loved that run, would need to see other models trend in that direction tonight to have some support. 

[CaryWx]

It's by itself now isn't it?  Especially with backside snow

[Blacksburg Coach]

When is the Southern energy going to be sampled? I think that will tell us a lot tonight.

[olafminesaw]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

As much as I loved that run, would need to see other models trend in that direction tonight to have some support. 

We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

It looks like a colder wedge hence more sleet. 

The surface temps were running a few degrees colder than 12z for sure.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

It looks like a colder wedge hence more sleet. 

This is what I was alluding to earlier when panic city struck over the GGEM. The models will normally around this time frame start picking up on the intensity of cad and adjust more often than not. I know you know this of course but I really have a good feeling about this storm. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Best GFS run in 24 hours.  For NC snow on the front, sleet, and then snow on the backend.  

[btownheel]

I know we all got excited with 20+ inch fantasies, but if that were to verify that’s a super fun system. Snow/sleet/snow for badass sledding, minimal freezing rain in most of the Piedmont and then COLD to enjoy it.


.

[Grayman]

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Switches most of NC over to snow Sunday night. Much much different look than the amped models. This is a good run, no low cutting up the apps and look what happens with thermals on the backside!!!

I was watching that run and wondering why all the negativity. I actually thought it was a much better run.

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, btownheel said:

I know we all got excited with 20+ inch fantasies, but if that were to verify that’s a super fun system. Snow/sleet/snow for badass sledding, minimal freezing rain in most of the Piedmont and then COLD to enjoy it.


.

Really how most of our winter storms are. Very rare we get a big storm with just all snow.

[franklin NCwx]

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Only thing that makes me feel this has a chance to actually at least move partially in that direction is that this has essentiallly been what every system has done for a few years now. As we get closer the northern stream gets more progressive and stronger and suppresses the flow in front of the weaker sheared southern wave. Thorn in our side all those times before but could be our saving grace this time. IF we can get it to keep trending. 

This was my thoughts on Monday with regards to a slider. Could still happen without the phase or if more energy gets left behind 

[SnowDawg]

Yeah the other models really have already moved that way to an extent, they all just have a much further starting point than the GFS to get back to positive for us.

[franklin NCwx]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

This is what I was alluding to earlier when panic city struck over the GGEM. The models will normally around this time frame start picking up on the intensity of cad and adjust more often than not. I know you know this of course but I really have a good feeling about this storm. 

Weaker system = less WAA

[Snowncanes]

Huge difference at hr54 in regards to the northern stream energy. Much more progressive and beats the Baja low east. A difference of almost the entire state of Montana lol. Looks like the Baja low may be slightly more south on gfs as well. Definitely something to watch as the models come in tonight. 

[BooneWX]

Baby steps. Baby steps. Keep it all in perspective. Positive trends since 12z overall. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Weaker system = less WAA

At least for our area, weaker system would also still give us a sizable snowstorm plus any appreciable dendritic growth along with solid ratios is a major win. I’ll believe the gfs when I see the euro trend toward it. 

[ADB83]

Not a single cliff diving post yet for that GFS run. That’s all the evidence I need that at least it didn’t get worse because you know there are some people that had their draft ready to go 

[tarheelwx]

10 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

It's by itself now isn't it?  Especially with backside snow

I'd say backside snow is exactly what we should expect to happen.  

TW

[SEwakenosnowforu]

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Really how most of our winter storms are. Very rare we get a big storm with just all snow.

It was not rare between 2000 to 2014....numerous large all snow events...in Wilson at least

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

Huge difference at hr54 in regards to the northern stream energy. Much more progressive and beats the Baja low east. A difference of almost the entire state of Montana lol. Looks like the Baja low may be slightly more south on gfs as well. Definitely something to watch as the models come in tonight. 

Oops accidentally grabbed the 12z GFS. Here’s 18z same time. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

Just found this map on the ensemble. I think it gives you a good idea of the range of possibilities. 

[BornAgain13]

GEFS is very similar to 12z. Pretty much a hold

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS holding its own and actually trending more strung out 48 hours out has to count for something right? … right?

[wake4est]

3+ inches of sleet on the GFS for like the entire center chunk of NC