franklin NCwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Couple days of trends like that and we are sitting really good. That could be a lot to ask for though. If it leaves a little more of that energy out west its a more snow to sleet event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Look at QPF trend from 12z to 18z for the Northeast. It did NOT go north and in fact was the exact trend we want, strung out and not as amped 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I'm going to take that GFS run and call it a day. Thank you everyone and goodnight! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: We were riding our kneeboards behind atvs. It was almost like being in the water. Not my smartest move but omg we had fun! I did this last when I was living on Lady's Island a few years ago from a truck with chains The whole neighborhood had a blast with some vehicles pulling john boats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, franklin NCwx said: If it leaves a little more of that energy out west its a more snow to sleet event. Only thing that makes me feel this has a chance to actually at least move partially in that direction is that this has essentiallly been what every system has done for a few years now. As we get closer the northern stream gets more progressive and stronger and suppresses the flow in front of the weaker sheared southern wave. Thorn in our side all those times before but could be our saving grace this time. IF we can get it to keep trending. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It looks like a colder wedge hence more sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 As much as I loved that run, would need to see other models trend in that direction tonight to have some support. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It's by itself now isn't it? Especially with backside snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 When is the Southern energy going to be sampled? I think that will tell us a lot tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, BornAgain13 said: As much as I loved that run, would need to see other models trend in that direction tonight to have some support. We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, eyewall said: It looks like a colder wedge hence more sleet. The surface temps were running a few degrees colder than 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, eyewall said: It looks like a colder wedge hence more sleet. This is what I was alluding to earlier when panic city struck over the GGEM. The models will normally around this time frame start picking up on the intensity of cad and adjust more often than not. I know you know this of course but I really have a good feeling about this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Best GFS run in 24 hours. For NC snow on the front, sleet, and then snow on the backend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I know we all got excited with 20+ inch fantasies, but if that were to verify that’s a super fun system. Snow/sleet/snow for badass sledding, minimal freezing rain in most of the Piedmont and then COLD to enjoy it.. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Switches most of NC over to snow Sunday night. Much much different look than the amped models. This is a good run, no low cutting up the apps and look what happens with thermals on the backside!!! I was watching that run and wondering why all the negativity. I actually thought it was a much better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, btownheel said: I know we all got excited with 20+ inch fantasies, but if that were to verify that’s a super fun system. Snow/sleet/snow for badass sledding, minimal freezing rain in most of the Piedmont and then COLD to enjoy it. . Really how most of our winter storms are. Very rare we get a big storm with just all snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Only thing that makes me feel this has a chance to actually at least move partially in that direction is that this has essentiallly been what every system has done for a few years now. As we get closer the northern stream gets more progressive and stronger and suppresses the flow in front of the weaker sheared southern wave. Thorn in our side all those times before but could be our saving grace this time. IF we can get it to keep trending. This was my thoughts on Monday with regards to a slider. Could still happen without the phase or if more energy gets left behind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Yeah the other models really have already moved that way to an extent, they all just have a much further starting point than the GFS to get back to positive for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: This is what I was alluding to earlier when panic city struck over the GGEM. The models will normally around this time frame start picking up on the intensity of cad and adjust more often than not. I know you know this of course but I really have a good feeling about this storm. Weaker system = less WAA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Huge difference at hr54 in regards to the northern stream energy. Much more progressive and beats the Baja low east. A difference of almost the entire state of Montana lol. Looks like the Baja low may be slightly more south on gfs as well. Definitely something to watch as the models come in tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Baby steps. Baby steps. Keep it all in perspective. Positive trends since 12z overall. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Weaker system = less WAA At least for our area, weaker system would also still give us a sizable snowstorm plus any appreciable dendritic growth along with solid ratios is a major win. I’ll believe the gfs when I see the euro trend toward it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not a single cliff diving post yet for that GFS run. That’s all the evidence I need that at least it didn’t get worse because you know there are some people that had their draft ready to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, CaryWx said: It's by itself now isn't it? Especially with backside snow I'd say backside snow is exactly what we should expect to happen. TW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Really how most of our winter storms are. Very rare we get a big storm with just all snow. It was not rare between 2000 to 2014....numerous large all snow events...in Wilson at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Snowncanes said: Huge difference at hr54 in regards to the northern stream energy. Much more progressive and beats the Baja low east. A difference of almost the entire state of Montana lol. Looks like the Baja low may be slightly more south on gfs as well. Definitely something to watch as the models come in tonight. Oops accidentally grabbed the 12z GFS. Here’s 18z same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just found this map on the ensemble. I think it gives you a good idea of the range of possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GEFS is very similar to 12z. Pretty much a hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GFS holding its own and actually trending more strung out 48 hours out has to count for something right? … right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3+ inches of sleet on the GFS for like the entire center chunk of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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