Rise of the Machines: January 18-19 Winter Storm Obs Thread

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CarverWX said:

Yes It's starting to again. Temp down to 33

Fantastic.  BOX has lowered my forecast a little from 3-5  to 2-4.

GYX has cut my 4-6" down to 1-3.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z HRRR is still snowing in eastern areas at like 8-9 tomorrrow morning.

Advertising a solid 5-6” in snow starved places in SE Mass.

I do agree the whole evolution has kind of shunted east, but I’m not sure that matters a ton in this area 

[CoastalWx]

34.5. Slowly falling. Need some more meat.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

New box map as of 10 mins ago shaved a couple inches off for most. 

[CoastalWx]

Seems like wind has shifted to ever so might NE.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

New box map as of 10 mins ago shaved a couple inches off for most. 

I’ve always had 2-4 here. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I am a fan of that WCB stuff south of LI not really bulging north. Almost wants to slide east. Hope that stuff in NJ blossoms.

We'll see what happens. This is one of the more nail biting nowcast situations in a while. Hopefully that area of 700 fronto along Long Island is some indication of where we'll get better banding developing later and hints at stuff blossoming farther north and west.

850mb fronto is getting there so we should at least continue seeing precip blossom across the region later on

[bristolri_wx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

New box map as of 10 mins ago shaved a couple inches off for most. 

Quote

KEY MESSAGE 1...Plowable snow today-tonight with total accumulations
of 2-6" with localized 7" amounts possible across eastern
MA/RI. Heaviest snow/worst of the travel conditions between 5 pm
and 1 am...but snow showers may linger for the Mon am commute.

An elongated shortwave trough stretching from the northern Great
Lakes down into the Gulf Coast will spin up a coastal low offshore,
passing just southeast of the benchmark this evening.  Guidance held
steady, with total QPF across the region ranging from 1/2 to 3/4
inches, south and east of the I-95 corridor, including the Cape and
Islands. QPF ticked up a bit north and west of the I-95 corridor all
the way to the northern Berkshires with 1/4 to 1/2 inch of QPF.  How
this translates into snowfall accumulation will depend heavily on
temperatures and where mid-level forcing sets up.  Temperatures
during this event will be marginal, with inland areas staying near
freezing and the Cape and Islands staying at or above freezing. With
the best mid-level forcing near the Cape and Islands, we will likely
see snow at temperatures up to 36F as snow rates will be able to
overcome the warm temps. The primary source of uncertainty is the
temperature at which snow will accumulate on paved surfaces. Because
of the warm temps, we continued to trend total accumulations down to
0.5-1.5 inches for the outer Cape and the Islands; however, if temps
cool below freezing, snow accumulations could exceed 2-4.

The highest confidence in snow accumulations remains along the I-95
corridor in eastern MA and into RI, where good mid-level forcing and
temperatures near or below freezing will overlap.  Snow
accumulations in this area will range from 3-5 inches, with
localized spots up to 6 inches possible.  To the north and west of
the I-95 corridor, mid-level forcing begins to drop off; however,
cooler temperatures will allow snow ratios to be higher, ranging
between 12-1 to 16-1.  Snow totals north and west of the I-95
corridor, including all of CT, will range from 2-4 inches, with
localized areas of 5 inches.

After the lull in snowfall this afternoon, steady light snow will
begin to overspread the region once again through 6 pm.  Snow rates
will start to tick up after 6 pm, increasing to 0.5 to 1.5 inches
per hour.  Snow becomes light again after 2-4 am and tapers off from
west to east through 6-9 am this morning. Snow showers may linger
over eastern MA until noon, but additional accumulations will be
light.  The most difficult travel period will be between 6 pm and 2
am tonight. However, with lingering snow showers into Monday
morning, the AM commute will likely be impacted.

Low temperatures on Monday morning are expected to drop into the low
to mid-20s across the region, which could cause any standing water
from melting snow to refreeze, especially on untreated surfaces.
High temperatures Monday afternoon rebound into the low to mid 30s,
allowing some melting.  Winds become gusty out of the WSW Monday
afternoon at 15-20mph, making it feel like the low to mid 20s.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Heavier bands pushing in now over SE MA

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I am a fan of that WCB stuff south of LI not really bulging north. Almost wants to slide east. Hope that stuff in NJ blossoms.

WCB stuff currently south of LI was never gonna hit us anyway with any real force unless maybe clipping the cape. It’s all about the stuff to the west of that blossoming. 

[moneypitmike]

Nearest reading to mi casa in Mattapoisett is down to 32.9.  Sticking must be happening and the radar's been solid there since I left.  34 here in PVD.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Nearest reading to mi casa in Mattapoisett is down to 32.9.  Sticking must be happening and the radar's been solid there since I left.  34 here in PVD.

32.4°..should be ok to accumulate going forward

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Back down to 32

[Baroclinic Zone]

Temp back down to 33F after popping up to 35

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

WCB stuff currently south of LI was never gonna hit us anyway with any real force unless maybe clipping the cape. It’s all about the stuff to the west of that blossoming. 

Just would like to see a north sort of bulge I guess. It’s trying. Hopefully the Delmarva stuff blossoms nicely 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Just would like to see a sort of bulge I guess. It’s trying. 

Good luck

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Good luck

That was a breaking ball with no movement.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a breaking ball with no movement.

Yeah---way to easy.

[WalpoleJoe]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a breaking ball with no movement.

Tim Wakefield (RIP) knuckler that doesn't knuckle

[butterfish55]

Snow has definitely picked back up in the last half hour or so. Temp has dropped too....32 down from 34.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah you can see it coming together nicely now on radar down there. Should be snowing nicely all of SNE by 5:00

[CoastalWx]

Nam is about .3 to .4” from BOS to the canal. Definitely cut back. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is about .3 to .4” from BOS to the canal. Definitely cut back. 

You must be fun at parties lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You must be fun at parties lol

You’re actually saying this to me? Just saying what it shows. Could see it coming this morning. Now I’m just hoping I can get solidly into my 2-4 call.

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

 Central Park already has a half and inch and is forecasted to get 1 to 3 more. 

[Spanks45]

Looking at the radar drying out here in Western CT, I bet we underperform with this last wave. 1-2 inches hopefully, but still no complaints, looks and feels like winter out there. After the last burst of snow, our total for the first round was 1.7". Storm total, 6.1"...

Good luck out to the east, hopefully an overperformer coming your way

[SouthCoastMA]

steady snow now, starting to stick to roads

[dendrite]

Tell cranky it’s an inverted trough up here. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

steady snow now, starting to stick to roads

Good to hear. Flaccid rates and still a mix here.