First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs with the east tick. Low actually looks further west, but precip is meh 

[dendrite]

Looks like noise to me

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs with the east tick. Low actually looks further west, but precip is meh 

Yep double lows

[Torch Tiger]

no real trend. very slightly east compared to 12z though still much better than 0z/6z

[Go Kart Mozart]

American Skynet tics east.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs with the east tick. Low actually looks further west, but precip is meh 

2-4” for you and I. I stand by that.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

American Skynet tics east.

Typical model mayhem before a winter storm. Miss these times.

Might have to use the mesos

[SouthCoastMA]

no big ccb, mod rates at best, marginal temps. WWA is fine

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2-4” for you and I. I stand by that.

Starting to see some CT Mets posting 4-6 state wide

[moneypitmike]

I think the low-level warmth in far SE Mass is going to make for a lot more meh than it will snow.  Climo's a bitch.

[CoastalWx]

Lucy is coming baby

[CarverWX]

GFS has been an outliner the whole time. Why believe it 100% now

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs vs the world . Buyers beware (again)

[CoastalWx]

Flags all over 

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think the low-level warmth in far SE Mass is going to make for a lot more meh than it will snow.  Climo's a bitch.

will be meh if we don't get heavier precip, that's why we want a more consolidated/stronger storm at our latitude

[codfishsnowman]

13 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Starting to see some CT Mets posting 4-6 state wide

That's fairly ambitious.

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

will be meh if we don't get heavier precip, that's why we want a more consolidated/stronger storm at our latitude

 

My approach is pretty much is this area doesn't snow.  Low expectation = low disappointment.

[codfishsnowman]

I checked in this morning and it looked like a last minute hail Mary might be in the works region wide with much of the 6z suite but I guess that unraveled right on schedule later on. Glad today worked out here in death valley.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

That's fairly ambitious.

Not at all. 4-8 is the range 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not at all. 4-8 is the range 

Hard to see 8” back into the deeper interior. 

[metagraphica]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not at all. 4-8 is the range 

4-8 IPA's??

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to see 8” back into the deeper interior. 

The best chance at 6-8" will be any areas that can get 2-4" from round 1 in the morning then another 2-4"+ at night..

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to see 8” back into the deeper interior. 

Ginx area to NW RI

4-6 here up thru ORH

Thetes a mid level band in the morning that many are not mentioning 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx area to NW RI

4-6 here up thru ORH

Thetes a mid level band in the morning that many are not mentioning 

Even NWS new york ignored that band .. That's the wildcard.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Even NWS new york ignored that band .. That's the wildcard.. 

It’s there on mesos .. especially 3k and Reggie . Just unsure on exact location 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s there on mesos .. especially 3k and Reggie . Just unsure on exact location 

Ya I've been all over it.  Those lead fronto bands like to drop high ratio snows.. That's why we have 4-8" for a good chunk of the state.. Most will end up on lower side but the 6-8" potential is for those that do well with round 1 as well as round 2..

[moneypitmike]

New Box map.

 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The best chance at 6-8" will be any areas that can get 2-4" from round 1 in the morning then another 2-4"+ at night..

I’d like to see that early band showing up more robustly on other guidance. Some guidance shows legit snow in that while others are kind of insignificant (like maybe an inch or so).  

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The public is in shock with our social media call of 4-8”.. no one has any idea 

Crazy aggressive call, makes sense to be in shock

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy aggressive call, makes sense to be in shock

Fair, but they are confusing snow today with tomorrow.. Many think that's for today's snow..