First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If that's H5 AC...IIRC 0.50 is getting around d10 with the ops. 

yea they seemed extremely low to me as well, thats why i have no idea, but its gonna be pretty far out there. Usually EC what was D3 or so was usually around .90? I haven't checked in a while. you have a resource for verification scores?

[CoastalWx]

West trend ends 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

West trend ends 

Tics East begin? 
Glad today is snowy out here. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

West trend ends 

still think euro ticks W/NW but it was the farthest offshore

[weatherwiz]

Probably get a nice CCB that goes bonkers just in time to get the Cape. Going to be a heavy, wet snow there

[CoastalWx]

2-4 for me and brett

[jbenedet]

Yea you want to be south/east with this. The trailing vort is a kicker that inhibits the latitude gain of the CCB.. Eastern LI, southeastern MA

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2-4 for me and brett

I’d call 3-6”

 

[The 4 Seasons]

AIGFS solid bump NW

[dendrite]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

yea they seemed extremely low to me as well, thats why i have no idea, but its gonna be pretty far out there. Usually EC what was D3 or so was usually around .90? I haven't checked in a while. you have a resource for verification scores?

Not offhand....they always seem to be moving the link for those scores. I think the die off for 0.90 was up around d5 now?

[CCHurricane]

 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

West trend ends 

Did see a modest jog west on 12z AIGFS, bump up from 6z.

[Damage In Tolland]

3-6 River west and 4-8 River East 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’d call 3-6”

 

I meant on gfs factoring in temps 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Got my 5th 1/4" snowfall of the season today.

[moneypitmike]

If the south voadt can avoud rain, we might do okay.

[ORH_wxman]

OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

Was basically a wash for me.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

AIGFS was a little west…at this point might be a better idea to go with the machines…since they have led the way imo. Although A blend as usual is always a good idea. 

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian ticked west. Really nice look for SE MA on that run. 

[tavwtby]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6 River west and 4-8 River East 

I'd take that but have a feeling wor folks are seeing showers instead of accumulated snow with this one 

[DJln491]

24hrs ago it was a whiff basically so not gonna complain about getting a few inches.  Seems to develop late (on the gfs anyway) congrats GOM

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian ticked west. Really nice look for SE MA on that run. 

I'm kind of rooting for the vort to not curl that much and kick out...I feel like if it beefs up, my area is going to end up a bone zone of subsidence...could see the 006z GFS do that, and it made total sense.

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

AIGFS was a little west…at this point might be a better idea to go with the machines…since they have led the way imo. Although A blend as usual is always a good idea. 

Jerry said that last night, looks like he was right.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

I'd take that but have a feeling wor folks are seeing showers instead of accumulated snow with this one 

This will have a mid level band into NY State . You’re good for 3-6

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Jerry said that last night, looks like he was right.

Agreed 100%. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Some of these runs look a hair flatter, but they’re finding a way to get more precip NW. 

I'm way behind but I reasoned that out yesterday...  The diffluent "fan" of the isohypses appears to be sensitive in this case.  The more expanded that is toward the NW, the model's been 'filling' more QPF

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

A pretty remarkable trend in the last really 12 hours. Loop starts at 18z yesterday. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This will have a mid level band into NY State . You’re good for 3-6

What do you mean by NY state?

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This will have a mid level band into NY State . You’re good for 3-6

hope so, i do like the H5 look I'm just weary of the kicker on its heels, it'll have to be some good growth to get 3-6 here 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Last 4 runs of the goofus. More downstream ridging and curling in of that vortmax  

Yes!  

to the point/observation I just mentioned, this fits