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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If that's H5 AC...IIRC 0.50 is getting around d10 with the ops. 

yea they seemed extremely low to me as well, thats why i have no idea, but its gonna be pretty far out there. Usually EC what was D3 or so was usually around .90? I haven't checked in a while. you have a resource for verification scores?

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

yea they seemed extremely low to me as well, thats why i have no idea, but its gonna be pretty far out there. Usually EC what was D3 or so was usually around .90? I haven't checked in a while. you have a resource for verification scores?

Not offhand....they always seem to be moving the link for those scores. I think the die off for 0.90 was up around d5 now?

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OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

Was basically a wash for me.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

AIGFS was a little west…at this point might be a better idea to go with the machines…since they have led the way imo. Although A blend as usual is always a good idea. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian ticked west. Really nice look for SE MA on that run. 

I'm kind of rooting for the vort to not curl that much and kick out...I feel like if it beefs up, my area is going to end up a bone zone of subsidence...could see the 006z GFS do that, and it made total sense.

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6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Some of these runs look a hair flatter, but they’re finding a way to get more precip NW. 

I'm way behind but I reasoned that out yesterday...  The diffluent "fan" of the isohypses appears to be sensitive in this case.  The more expanded that is toward the NW, the model's been 'filling' more QPF

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP GFs sfc kind of escaped east that run so it wasn’t quite as juiced with the main stuff. Still has moderate stuff pretty far west though. It actually might have trended slightly better over interior while being a bit worse for coast. 

A pretty remarkable trend in the last really 12 hours. Loop starts at 18z yesterday. 

KP9MeEH.gif

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