First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[ORH_wxman]

Slight tick better. I did like seeing the vort try and stay more consolidated longer. 

[CoastalWx]

Grazes SE areas but really juiced up just east of the coastline from NC to MA. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Grazes SE areas but really juiced up just east of the coastline from NC to MA. 

I actually like how it’s getting heavier precip into E NC and the tidewater area of VA. That often bodes well for eastern MA. Hopefully we see that trend up the coast a bit more in subsequent runs. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Slight tick better. I did like seeing the vort try and stay more consolidated longer. 

Its amazing how quickly it just slings up the coast. Basically goes from LA to the northern mid-Atlantic within 12 hours lol

[dryslot]

Just stopped for lunch in Oquossoc at Bald Mtn Camps, Took a look at the page count from this morning and that’s all I need to see, We will get more snow up here with tomorrows system then Sunday.

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

4-6” in all of sne.  All hail AI

If the AI actually pulls this out of its ass, all of us AI skeptics owe you several high end cocktails at a GTG. And none of that IPA crap either 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Its amazing how quickly it just slings up the coast. Basically goes from LA to the northern mid-Atlantic within 12 hours lol

That vort is going to be so key….if it can stay a bit stronger/consolidated longer, it’s going to force the WCB action more which will directly help heights rise ahead of the system. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I actually like how it’s getting heavier precip into E NC and the tidewater area of VA. That often bodes well for eastern MA. Hopefully we see that trend up the coast a bit more in subsequent runs. 

Yeah I agree. I know the end result maybe wasn’t ideal, but I’d rather have improved H5 look vs a H5 look that was worse but gave more QPF. Tha would be a red flag.

[dendrite]

I think we’re slowly narrowing the goalposts. NAM is flattest, AIGFS most amped

[SnowGoose69]

The EuroAI QPF extensiveness just looks suspect to me

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I agree. I know the end result maybe wasn’t ideal, but I’d rather have improved H5 look vs a H5 look that was worse but gave more QPF. Tha would be a red flag.

Yep, sometimes you know it’s fake or overdone when the model dynamics don’t look impressive. Likewise, well often talk about how the model QPF prob isn’t reflecting the dynamics far enough NW on other systems. 
 

What makes this system so tough is we have a negatively tilted shortwave with vortmax running up and usually that’s a slam dunk for a biggish event, but in this case, we’re racing against the attenuation of it….and very small shifts can make a large impact on the sensible wx of it. If you attenuate it too quickly, it never starts to “capture” the sfc in the Atlantic and get those conveyors cranking…but a slightly stronger/consolidated vort will start to capture all the lower level circulation and very quickly crank out heavier QPF 

[Typhoon Tip]

oh i see what the AI Euro's doing there.  

it's contracted the QPF around the NW arc by small amts, while the low is both a couple mb deeper and tracking slightly NW of previous runs.  that's a consolidating going on

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, sometimes you know it’s fake or overdone when the model dynamics don’t look impressive. Likewise, well often talk about how the model QPF prob isn’t reflecting the dynamics far enough NW on other systems. 
 

What makes this system so tough is we have a negatively tilted shortwave with vortmax running up and usually that’s a slam dunk for a biggish event, but in this case, we’re racing against the attenuation of it….and very small shifts can make a large impact on the sensible wx of it. If you attenuate it too quickly, it never starts to “capture” the sfc in the Atlantic and get those conveyors cranking…but a slightly stronger/consolidated vort will start to capture all the lower level circulation and very quickly crank out heavier QPF 

Probably why the models have been jumping around so much. Little shifts have a big impact. So the possibilities are still there as this is just Friday

[SouthCoastMA]

Temps are marginal along coast so increase in vort strength is preferred to promote heavier precip. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Probably why the models have been jumping around so much. Little shifts have a big impact. So the possibilities are still there as this is just Friday

Yes, we’re right on the line of it escaping east as a total whiff. But it doesn’t take a whole lot of change to get a GGEM solution which gives advisory snow even up into your ‘hood. 

[rcostell]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Don’t worry, in a few days I’ll post snowy pictures of the Adirondacks to add some variety.

This mornng between SLK and north side of Whiteface. Paste, then upslope powder. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

if my JUNO theory is correct, GFS makes a hard western move tonight and so does the Euro!

[HoarfrostHubb]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a better H5 look on 12z euro vs 6z

Mid level magic for Ray?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if my JUNO theory is correct, GFS makes a hard western move tonight and so does the Euro!

Aint happening .. By this point in Juno we were under blizzard watches with 24-36” forecast regionwide 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is going to probably be the worst of both worlds for most of CT other than NW hills. Miss tomorrow and miss Sunday night. I was hoping tomorrow would trend back East on the Euro 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Aint happening .. By this point in Juno we were under blizzard watches with 24-36” forecast regionwide 

The dynamics in that system too were just a completely different spectrum versus this attenuating disaster. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This is going to probably be the worst of both worlds for most of CT other than NW hills. Miss tomorrow and miss Sunday night. I was hoping tomorrow would trend back East on the Euro 

Yup it sucks.. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if my JUNO theory is correct, GFS makes a hard western move tonight and so does the Euro!

I think the areas where a big NW move may happen are way down south in like GA/SC.  And I am not even sure I'd call it a NW move, its more the H5 has argued the QPF is being underdone on the NW edge down there which is why at times the RRFS and some other models have shown snow back to like ATL/GSP.  I don't really see big changes likely up the coast.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The dynamics in that system too were just a completely different spectrum versus this attenuating disaster. 

Well ya and that important fact obviously, but even from a last second trend aspect, it’s really late in the game, if we get lucky with this most we can get is advisory snows for all of SNE, with low end warnings for ENE

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if my JUNO theory is correct, GFS makes a hard western move tonight and so does the Euro!

Keep an eye on the Navgem, that holds the key.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well ya and that important fact obviously, but even from a last second trend aspect, it’s really late in the game, if we get lucky with this most we can get is advisory snows for all of SNE, with low end warnings for ENE

Yeah our ceiling isn’t that high in this one. Only exception is I could maybe see the cape/islands get something pretty high end if everything trended almost perfectly with stronger vort and a little more downstream ridging allowing this to blow up a good midlevel circulation. We can’t get it back that far for the true goods, but it wouldn’t be implausible for Cape. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yup it sucks.. 

There will be snow pack across all of E MA and W CT and an ugly brown area from say BDR up to or just SE of ORH. I am sick to my stomach 

[dendrite]

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There will be snow pack across all of E MA and W CT and an ugly brown area from say BDR up to or just SE of ORH. I am sick to my stomach 

There’s a mild possibility that Tolland is smack in the middle of the pack-less zone. Like draw a 20-30 mile oval around Tolland. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There will be snow pack across all of E MA and W CT and an ugly brown area from say BDR up to or just SE of ORH. I am sick to my stomach 

a snowpack??? lol