First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least Virginia gets snow. They need it. 

That can stop now

[WxWatcher007]

Boy this place is teetering. I’m with Will. Trends—not great. Skepticism—totally warranted. But a full on punt isn’t quite necessary yet, spoken from someone that was never in on this threat to begin with. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny how the EURO is the most skilled model out there when it's solution sucks for SNE...remember that December 2 system? It was snow for all, then inexorably marched northward right up until go-time and it mixed up to MHT. Of course it nailed the vort impotence here at hr 120.

Unreal.

[tamarack]

18 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This is more like the Atlanta Super Bowl I fear 

To mirror that game, we'd need to be 25" AN by Jan 31 then nada for the 2nd half of snow season.

We're enjoying low 30s RA/fog so far today.  GYX forecast for the "legit storm" is 0.5".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Rgem hmm…

[HIPPYVALLEY]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We can’t get one fucking coherent shortwave. Instead it has to be a Diddy freak off of shortwaves in the trough.

I mean, this pretty much sums it up.  
A humorous cliff note edition of one of Tippy’s destructive interference tomes. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Rgem hmm…

pictures or it didn't happen

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, this pretty much sums it up.  
A humorous cliff note edition of one of Tippy’s destructive interference tomes. 

There isn't destructive interference if it's through Michigan, though...has to be the MJO.

[wxsniss]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually the the convection is triggered the other way.  The vmax has streamline and flow velocity -related difluence above an unstable environment, so the convection is triggering along that axis ahead of the vorticity ribbon you circled. 

Convective vorticity exposes in the speckling you see out ahead.  Those are convective induced

You're right. I was proposing more the convection -> latent heat release -> amplified PV, so a feedback amplification of the remnant vorticity. But you'd expect that more downstream rather than upstream of the convection popping up. Anyway this is academic, not the biggest impediment to this system.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

pictures or it didn't happen

[ineedsnow]

ICON.closer but still not enough

[ineedsnow]

Gets advisory snows for eastern areas

[WinterWolf]

It’s really just one or two guys that gave up. And that’s fine too. To each their own.  Scott used to post great posts, like Will does…now he’s just an utter MESS.  What a melt!    The poor kid..gotta feel for him watching his dad totally fall apart. 

[MJO812]

Reggie

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s really just one or two guys that gave up. And that’s fine too. To each their own.  Scott used to post great posts, like Will does…now he’s just an utter MESS.  What a melt!  

Yeah, he had a good one this morning. But it’s rough out here. Nothing comes easy. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, he had a good one this morning. But it’s rough out here. Nothing comes easy. 

Nope. But we’ve been here before, and ya gotta man up-Not fall apart.  Needs to regroup and pull himself together. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Reggie

We’d take that…better than nothing. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Reggie

West, but weak.

[brooklynwx99]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how the EURO is the most skilled model out there when it's solution sucks for SNE...remember that December 2 system? It was snow for all, then inexorably marched northward right up until go-time and it mixed up to MHT. Of course it nailed the vort impotence here at hr 120.

Unreal.

lol it only nails it if the solution is crappy. we've seen it amp up and do interesting things only to fall flat on its face

[WinterWolf]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

lol it only nails it if the solution is crappy. we've seen it amp up and do interesting things only to fall flat on its face

They’re all like that though. Euro ain’t what it used to be by a big margin, but GFS isn’t any better either.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how the EURO is the most skilled model out there when it's solution sucks for SNE...remember that December 2 system? It was snow for all, then inexorably marched northward right up until go-time and it mixed up to MHT. Of course it nailed the vort impotence here at hr 120.

Unreal.

Yeah, it does kind of feel like that. Up until about 24 hours before it had us getting a foot here for that storm. Really bad 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

They’re all like that though. Euro ain’t what it used to be by a big margin, but GFS isn’t any better either.  

The gfs has been especially bad. Its head faked a blizzard at day 5 twice in the last 4 days 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

West, but weak.

But it would give you snow..so that’s a good thing. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs has been especially bad. Its head faked a blizzard at day 5 twice in the last 4 days 

Agreed. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't think that stuff is true guys...  The GFS dropped the 15/16 system, but then redrew it up where it is happening now.  The Euro did the same thing; they just did this at different times.  

I realize there's some fun frustration context going on... but the problem is any model trying to perform in this type of pattern constraint.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s really just one or two guys that gave up. And that’s fine too. To each their own.  Scott used to post great posts, like Will does…now he’s just an utter MESS.  What a melt!    The poor kid..gotta feel for him watching his dad totally fall apart. 

It’s just letting out steam. I’m disgusted right now. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just letting out steam. I’m disgusted right now. 

I hear ya…so you blew off the steam which is good. Now regroup and let’s see what happens at 12z. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just letting out steam. I’m disgusted right now. 

How do you have any steam left?

[MegaMike]

Before 12z gets roll'n, here's what the 06z ensembles depict for QPF-mean and SFC MSLP:

Will this trend into something like yesterday's 12z GFS? Probably not (as other mets mentioned), but at least the 0.5" QPF-mean contour is nearby (~Cape Cod; trying to be optimistic for the pessimistic weenies) for each ensemble. Given there's still a decent amount of spread at 96hrs, a lighter/moderate event may still be possible for eastern areas. I would like to see the EPS tick west at 12z, otherwise, I'd lower expectations if you haven't already.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Reggie

I thought it looked conducive early on for something bigger but whatevs…nobody should complain about a snowy weekend with a couple inches down.