Storm potential January 17th-18th

[RU848789]

NWS - Philly finally put out their map. Nice, especially for me, lol.

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

[Cyg]

Had some snow mixed in with rain here in Brick, but ultimately nothing. 

[Winterweatherlover]

GFS looks east for tomorrow. it is what it is, even another 1-3 inches would be nice on top of todays with a good pattern coming up.

[EastonSN+]

Gfs is east 

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Gfs is east 

Double lows. Not sure if we should believe that. All these models have been horrible. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Double lows. Not sure if we should believe that. All these models have been horrible. 

These models are ridiculous, 12z they all come west look like a decent storm, now all east and disorganized.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

These models are ridiculous, 12z they all come west look like a decent storm, now all east and disorganized.

Typical model mayhem before a winter storm. Miss these times.

 

Might have to use the mesos

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Typical model mayhem before a winter storm. Miss these times.

 

Might have to use the mesos

GFS had 1-2” for my much of my area on some of the recent runs overnight.  Had 4-6”.  So much for the GFS.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Wow GFS barely has a storm. Continues the trend of NAM and HRRR further east. Looks like an initial wave and then the low gets pulled east so we never really get going here. Warm too 

Likely go together, further east less dynamics warmer solution, better dynamics would lead to a colder solution.

[snywx]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Typical model mayhem before a winter storm. Miss these times.

 

Might have to use the mesos

Mesos are throwing more precip back this way. NAM, RGEM, RRFS all have an advisory event here

[BxEngine]

[weatherpruf]

29 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

These models are ridiculous, 12z they all come west look like a decent storm, now all east and disorganized.

these small events are hard to pin down.

[BoulderWX]

46 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS - Philly finally put out their map. Nice, especially for me, lol.

 

 

 

 

Sign me up! Seems high. I’m more in the 1-2 camp but who knows. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, wxman said:

Just wondering where you picked up an extra 2" since we live a stones throw away?  I was travelling over Christmas week, did I miss an event?

 

December 6, 2025…………………………………..0.2”

December 14, 2025………………………………...7.2”

December 23. 2025………………………………...0.5”

December 26, 2025………………………………...1.5”

January 1, 2026…………………………………….0.5”

January 2, 2026……………………………………..0.1”

January 17, 2026…………………………………...3.0”

2025-2026 Running Total……………….…….…13.0”

12/6. - .3

12/14 - 7.2

12/23- 1"

12/26-27 - 1.5" snow/sleet

1/1-2 - 1.5"

1/17 - 3.1 

I guess 14.6 instead of 15.  I have a spreadsheet and I just realized I set up the formula wrong.  Thank you!

[Monty]

What a fantastic winter. Long stretches of cold, no real torch, and already probably the greatest frequency of snow in at least the last 5?

One KU and this will be top tier. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anybody know what rap has been depicting? 

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, Monty said:

What a fantastic winter. Long stretches of cold, no real torch, and already probably the greatest frequency of snow in at least the last 5?

One KU and this will be top tier. 

i wouldn't go that far; its been piddly events for lots of us followed by a dry warm stretch. hopefully that is turning around. today we got a surprise 2.2 inches imby, if RU is accurate; when i emerged from the theater, after suffering through 3 hours of avatar, wondering when it would end, i was shocked to see plowable snow; the mall was busy too. i. guess we're around 10-12 for the season. we would need a lot more of these events to get to seasonal average here; i think we have been in a drier climate a few years, so a big daddy is probably unlikely, though i lucked out in feb 2024 with that 10-12 inch storm.

[TriPol]

I mean yay that we have another nickel and dime event, but I'm ready for the main course.

[sussexcountyobs]

Members are talking about the same thing in 2 different threads. I believe it's time to make a dedicated thread for tomorrow. Just to have clarity. 

[Krs4Lfe]

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i wouldn't go that far; its been piddly events for lots of us followed by a dry warm stretch. hopefully that is turning around. today we got a surprise 2.2 inches imby, if RU is accurate; when i emerged from the theater, after suffering through 3 hours of avatar, wondering when it would end, i was shocked to see plowable snow; the mall was busy too. i. guess we're around 10-12 for the season. we would need a lot more of these events to get to seasonal average here; i think we have been in a drier climate a few years, so a big daddy is probably unlikely, though i lucked out in feb 2024 with that 10-12 inch storm.

With tomorrow’s storm it’ll be best winter since 2022 because December was cold and we’re back to cold now. But it only feels like a great winter because of how warm and snowless the 2020s have been 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

NWS - Philly finally put out their map. Nice, especially for me, lol.

 

 

 

 

 

The NBM finally caught up to the models, lol. This looks just like the NWS map (not a coincidence). I'll take it.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Euro also goes east and drier. Seems to be the theme at 18z. Wondering if today’s over performance is the reason for tomorrows downtrend 

I would go 1-3 for NYC and coast. 0z runs will be telling. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I mean yay that we have another nickel and dime event, but I'm ready for the main course.

It depends where you are in the forum. I'm 50 miles north of Midtown in Orange County and no complaints here.

I'm at 23.4 inches for the season, about half my seasonal average, and I've had snow cover 34 days. For the middle of January I'll take it and be happy. A double digit snow would be nice, but I'll keep taking the 3-6 inch events with no complaints. As long as it's cold and the snow sticks around that's what winter is suppose to look and feel like IMO.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It depends where you are in the forum. I'm 50 miles north of Midtown in Orange County and no complaints here.

I'm at 23.4 inches for the season, about half my seasonal average, and I've had snow cover 34 days. For the middle of January I'll take it and be happy. A double digit snow would be nice, but I'll keep taking the 3-6 inch events with no complaints. As long as it's cold and the snow sticks around that's what winter is suppose to look and feel like IMO.

Exactly.  I'm at 24.4 for the season. People have been playing hockey and ice fishing on the lake since before Christmas. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

go with the mesos

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I would go 1-3 for NYC and coast. 0z runs will be telling. 

Yeah between the trends in less QPF (drier), and warm temps at the onset (low-mid 30s), 1-3” is probably the right call. NWS seems a bit bullish with the 3-4 

[Jt17]

Yeah between the trends in less QPF (drier), and warm temps at the onset (low-mid 30s), 1-3” is probably the right call. NWS seems a bit bullish with the 3-4 

Ya already got burned today brother, you're ready for part 2 tomorrow?


.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah between the trends in less QPF (drier), and warm temps at the onset (low-mid 30s), 1-3” is probably the right call. NWS seems a bit bullish with the 3-4 

But 2-4 isnt out of the question if the mesos are right. 

[NEG NAO]

23 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Members are talking about the same thing in 2 different threads. I believe it's time to make a dedicated thread for tomorrow. Just to have clarity. 

Agreed Start an Observation Thread later tonight for Tomorrows event - this thread has gotten too long in the tooth so to say at 33 pages - back in the old days we would start new threads if they got too long