Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Congrats @GaWx

If anyone on this board scores other than my foothills crew, I’d want it to be @GaWx

[Brick Tamland]

Euro a no go for Sunday, too.

[CheoahBald1]

Euro a no go for Sunday, too.

Not for the mountains


.

[cbmclean]

40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If downeast NC and SC score major storms two winters in a row while the foothills remain blanked since 2022…

Cold periods during Nina's are pretty much the Carolina Coastal Plain's time to shine.

[wncsnow]

-PNA still showing up some in the long range. Trend has been for the cold to be overdone in the NW this year though. We'll see. 

[cbmclean]

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

-PNA still showing up some in the long range. Trend has been for the cold to be overdone in the NW this year though. We'll see. 

The Euro suite has been continuously overdoing the NW trough/SER all season in the LR.  That said, eventually it is going to be right, and late Jan/Feb in a Nina is often SER season.  On the other hand, if we continue to have a strong -EPO, a moderately negative PNA can help fight against over-suppression.  As you know it's always a knife's edge down here.

[franklin NCwx]

56 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

One of these days we’re going to get a juiced up low running just inland of the coast with a 1035 high over the top and I’m going to get banned from this forum when I see the first I-85 north snarky remark. 

The elusive I95 runner

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The Euro suite has been continuously overdoing the NW trough/SER all season in the LR.  That said, eventually it is going to be right, and late Jan/Feb in a Nina is often SER season.  On the other hand, if we continue to have a strong -EPO, a moderately negative PNA can help fight against over-suppression.  As you know it's always a knife's edge down here.

There will be a 2-3 day period next week Tue-Thu or Wed-Fri where the SER builds briefly.  This is probably when the OH Valley/NE likely sees a big winter event but thereafter the +PNA likely comes back and that may be a broader trof which makes it more likely a winter event hits the SE somewhere in the 23-30 period

[Brick Tamland]

Euro has a monster winter storm for NC two weeks out. 

[SnowGoose69]

I would watch MS-AL-GA-SC Sat-Mon.  Something may come out of nowhere inside 4 days.  UK has been showing it on and off and does again today.  Remember that the GFS/Euro sort of suck with killing shortwaves in these patterns.  The ICON does not really show much now but unfortunately 2 of our main models have issues with Gulf Coast slider type events which is why so many of those historically have popped up inside 96 hours.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the HRRR has rain ending as some snow in central NC for Thursday.

[Brick Tamland]

 

[Upstate Tiger]

When I moved from the upstate of SC 10 years ago to the western Piedmont of NC, I thought for sure I’d see more snow.  Who knew that if I had taken the job on the coast, I would be in the best spot in the Carolina’s outside the mountains for snow.  

[SnowDawg]

MJO looks likely to be headed towards phase 8 so odds are any risk of extended warm will hold off at least through the end of the month. Plus this upcoming strong westerly wind burst in the pacific could enhance our subtropical jet, and kill of the La Niña entirely in pretty quick fashion.

[BooneWX]

Don’t worry yall, the blocking will show up in April

[Brick Tamland]

NAM is dry for Thursday.

[LakeNormanStormin]

Swing and a miss for my neck of the Piedmont.

Bring on thunderstorm season.

[franklin NCwx]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Don’t worry yall, the blocking will show up in April

Along with an active southern stream 

[BooneWX]

17 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Along with an active southern stream 

Gonna get ahead of the game by reminding everyone to be thankful it’s 45° and raining and we’re avoiding early heat as long as possible 

[franklin NCwx]

11 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Gonna get ahead of the game by reminding everyone to be thankful it’s 45° and raining and we’re avoiding early heat as long as possible 

Apri is usually a nice month here. 60's low humidity and cool mornings.  May is usually not too bad either 

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Don’t worry yall, the blocking will show up in April

Oh you know it. A week of 40's and rain coming up. 

[WXNewton]

18z GFS was a step in the right direction, more digging and separation, looked really close to being a lot more for Sunday. Maybe ens will start to pick up.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Wilmington now on notice!

[BooneWX]

On the bright side, it’s Tuesday evening and we’re talking about Sunday, so still some time to go in the right direction. 

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS definitely a step in the right direction. May the NW trend commence lol