BooneWX Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Just now, wncsnow said: Congrats @GaWx If anyone on this board scores other than my foothills crew, I’d want it to be @GaWx 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro a no go for Sunday, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro a no go for Sunday, too.Not for the mountains . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If downeast NC and SC score major storms two winters in a row while the foothills remain blanked since 2022… Cold periods during Nina's are pretty much the Carolina Coastal Plain's time to shine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 -PNA still showing up some in the long range. Trend has been for the cold to be overdone in the NW this year though. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: -PNA still showing up some in the long range. Trend has been for the cold to be overdone in the NW this year though. We'll see. The Euro suite has been continuously overdoing the NW trough/SER all season in the LR. That said, eventually it is going to be right, and late Jan/Feb in a Nina is often SER season. On the other hand, if we continue to have a strong -EPO, a moderately negative PNA can help fight against over-suppression. As you know it's always a knife's edge down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 56 minutes ago, BooneWX said: One of these days we’re going to get a juiced up low running just inland of the coast with a 1035 high over the top and I’m going to get banned from this forum when I see the first I-85 north snarky remark. The elusive I95 runner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The Euro suite has been continuously overdoing the NW trough/SER all season in the LR. That said, eventually it is going to be right, and late Jan/Feb in a Nina is often SER season. On the other hand, if we continue to have a strong -EPO, a moderately negative PNA can help fight against over-suppression. As you know it's always a knife's edge down here. There will be a 2-3 day period next week Tue-Thu or Wed-Fri where the SER builds briefly. This is probably when the OH Valley/NE likely sees a big winter event but thereafter the +PNA likely comes back and that may be a broader trof which makes it more likely a winter event hits the SE somewhere in the 23-30 period 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro has a monster winter storm for NC two weeks out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I would watch MS-AL-GA-SC Sat-Mon. Something may come out of nowhere inside 4 days. UK has been showing it on and off and does again today. Remember that the GFS/Euro sort of suck with killing shortwaves in these patterns. The ICON does not really show much now but unfortunately 2 of our main models have issues with Gulf Coast slider type events which is why so many of those historically have popped up inside 96 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Looks like the HRRR has rain ending as some snow in central NC for Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 When I moved from the upstate of SC 10 years ago to the western Piedmont of NC, I thought for sure I’d see more snow. Who knew that if I had taken the job on the coast, I would be in the best spot in the Carolina’s outside the mountains for snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 MJO looks likely to be headed towards phase 8 so odds are any risk of extended warm will hold off at least through the end of the month. Plus this upcoming strong westerly wind burst in the pacific could enhance our subtropical jet, and kill of the La Niña entirely in pretty quick fashion. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Don’t worry yall, the blocking will show up in April 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NAM is dry for Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Swing and a miss for my neck of the Piedmont. Bring on thunderstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Don’t worry yall, the blocking will show up in April Along with an active southern stream 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 17 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Along with an active southern stream Gonna get ahead of the game by reminding everyone to be thankful it’s 45° and raining and we’re avoiding early heat as long as possible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Gonna get ahead of the game by reminding everyone to be thankful it’s 45° and raining and we’re avoiding early heat as long as possible Apri is usually a nice month here. 60's low humidity and cool mornings. May is usually not too bad either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: Don’t worry yall, the blocking will show up in April Oh you know it. A week of 40's and rain coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z GFS was a step in the right direction, more digging and separation, looked really close to being a lot more for Sunday. Maybe ens will start to pick up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Wilmington now on notice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 On the bright side, it’s Tuesday evening and we’re talking about Sunday, so still some time to go in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z GFS definitely a step in the right direction. May the NW trend commence lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The 12Z EPS for SAV has gotten my attention for the small chance of Sun AM light snow/flurries, which in this area would be a big deal due to the relative rarity being that most winters get nothing, not even a T. We got nothing Feb 2018 through Dec 2024. My expectations, especially for measurable, are low due to climo, it being pretty dry overall with member qpf progs being light, and marginal temps. So, fwiw, here are some 12Z EPS images: ~25% of members have snow, which is notably high: Mean: 0.2”, notable for here: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Day 11 and after is a huge Snow/ICE storm for some folks. 60"+ in Pennsylvania lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Pretty decent increase from 12z to 18z on the EPS for Sunday... this thing could have legs for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Pretty decent increase from 12z to 18z on the EPS for Sunday... this thing could have legs for some The end of the month has had my interest and I noticed that too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS definitely a step in the right direction. May the NW trend commence lol Funny you say that: the NBM’s footprint is further west tonight than some of the snowier OPs we saw at 18z. It would favor Delmarva southwest through the Virginia/NC piedmonts into western NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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