Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[AppalachianWedge]

A lot of times, major cold works against us and ends up suppressing the storms.

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[strongwxnc]

A lot of times, major cold works against us and ends up suppressing the storms.

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It certainly has been known to.


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

24 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Not sure this is a good thing imo. If we don’t get a 50/50 low or some blocking established, it’s going to be tough sledding with a lot of northern stream energy and little to slow it down and give it time to dig. 

But chances of Deep South, Gulf, and Florida snow increase with brutal cold in the East 

[NC_hailstorm]

UKIE is scoring 2nd overall.we'll see.

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/global/mrw/acc_31days/

 

 

[wncsnow]

Last winter did get a lot of suppression but I'm still in the give me cold first camp. I have seen way too many winter storms that quickly turned into slop or rain. 

[BornAgain13]

12 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

UKIE is scoring 2nd overall.we'll see.

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/global/mrw/acc_31days/

 

 

Ain't no way the gfs is that good! Lol

[BornAgain13]

Fwiw , the 18z AIGFS trended better for Sunday.

[lilj4425]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Good.

Not really as it means more suppression and a higher electric bill.

[BooneWX]

For what it’s worth, the Ukie has support from its ensemble and the ensemble gets more and more aggressive with each run. As @BornAgain13pointed out, the AIGFS run improved. Actually, it’s a substantial improvement and looks similar to the Ukie at h5. Good to see the Ukie not on a complete island. Let’s see if 0z can get any others to work that way. 

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Not really as it means more suppression and a higher electric bill.

It'll trend north lol.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

It'll trend north lol.

Cold outbreaks usually trend less in intensity/extent at verification.  Every once in a while that is a good thing for some of us.  Last year during that epic Gulf snowstorm, E NC was originally forecast to get nothing as the system was suppressed to oblivion, but the last minute NW trend netted me 3 fluffy inches.

The only cold outbreak that I can remember since I really started following weather that did NOT degrade to my knowledge was the Big Chill in late December 2017 early Jan 2018.  That seemed to sneak up on me.

[SnowDawg]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Not sure this is a good thing imo. If we don’t get a 50/50 low or some blocking established, it’s going to be tough sledding with a lot of northern stream energy and little to slow it down and give it time to dig. 

Truly think this is our biggest problem. The northern stream is very progressive right now, especially without better wave spacing, so we need something to jam up the flow a bit. Need some blocking over Greenland, a stout 50/50, or ideally both.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Last winter did get a lot of suppression but I'm still in the give me cold first camp. I have seen way too many winter storms that quickly turned into slop or rain. 

In general I heartily agree.  For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails.  I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness.  As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow?  I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass.

ETA: I meant to say that I got zilch rain Saturday.

[buckeyefan1]

Ya'll are gonna need to make sure your meds are filled for the chaos filled model madness coming this week 

[SnowDawg]

19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

In general I heartily agree.  For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails.  I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness.  As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow?  I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass.

Well I got almost 6 inches of rain this weekend so I must be getting buried with snow soon then right? RIGHT?!?

[gamecockinupstateSC]

AIFS Ens trended better. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

21 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Ya'll are gonna need to make sure your meds are filled for the chaos filled model madness coming this week 

At least we aren't the Mid Atlantic!

[buckeyefan1]

4 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

At least we aren't the Mid Atlantic!

Indeed! Bless their hearts 

[BornAgain13]

I mean... this is the 18z GEFS just for the Sunday system.  This is not a terrible look. Or maybe its just me 

[BornAgain13]

CMC Ensemble for Sunday

[BornAgain13]

18z Euro AI Ensemble for Sunday

[WiseWeather]

Im optimistic… but its just because all the let downs have led me to be positive even though i know deep down we cant score in the foothills circle of doom.


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