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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I wouldn’t pay much attention to the AI models for mesoscale features. But synoptic scale? Euro AI is a cheat code inside D4-5. GFSAI outperforming physics-based GFS as well

Euro AI (AIFS) has the best verification of areal 0.25+” precip coverage at D3-5 right now, second best at D2 and still top 5 inside 24 hrs. It’s not the magnitude you want to pay attention to with AI. It’s the location of the precip distribution and the handling of the 5H mean trough/ridge pattern. It’s very powerful and definitely worthy of looking at for synoptically driven pattern. Convection is okay and still does a relatively good job at location of potential precip maxima, but it cannot handle the magnitude at all. Struggled mightily in that area, but useful nonetheless! 

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2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The big thing is getting that STJ energy to eject E

12z ai made a huge progression change in doing that.

The prior 6z run buried it under the ridge

If it really does head east this is the best chance for a MECS in a decade.

b90df4d7fcfbad89b47d05cf7d8f4b25.gif


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I really thought a few days ago it was going to sit longer and come out delayed after the 27th. Still could, I suppose. But I am quite OK with it being ejected as depicted on the ens means and getting an ECS this weekend.

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18 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS 4-5", favors south central VA

Screenshot 2026-01-18 at 1.50.15 PM.png

The question is how much does the operational increase the numbers in VA since it is part of the Eps average (I believe) and it's quite a dump down there. 

Someone correct me if the operational numbers aren't part of the Eps mean.

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The question is how much does the operational increase the numbers in VA since it is part of the Eps average (I believe) and it's quite a dump down there. 

Someone correct me if the operational numbers aren't part of the Eps mean.

I thought the control was the op member of the ensemble but I could be wrong. 

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a damn near perfect setup for a cold powder moderate 4-6"+ snow event for the MA. The risk ofc is suppression.

1769342400-SIRzvIWaMaU.png

1769342400-zMFM3NfQMbo.png

The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.

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14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

We are trying so hard to not jump the gun on talking about a big dog, but with the AI’s showing it it’s so hard not to.  

Agreed. This is probably our best shot for a widespread, warning level snowfall this season. My go/no go would be the 12z runs on Thursday, 1/22. My goal for this window is at least one, widespread warning level snowfall of 6"+. Bonus would be two, warning level snowfalls of 6"+. That would cement the region with it's first above normal snowfall in a decade.

Bottom line: I'm very optimistic about the period Jan 25 - Feb 15.

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14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I thought the control was the op member of the ensemble but I could be wrong. 

Control is or was a slightly lower resolution version of the Op. I think EPS has gone to the same resolution as the Op now though? Or is planning to soon? 

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The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.
What a great storm. Looked like nothing 5 days out, and just kept inching north until we were in the max stripe

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

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