January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it is better.  I think we're still in the game?  Or at least a morale booster.  We live to fight another day.

Fuck yeah we are. We will know how this will go sometime Thursday, probably HH.

[Benjamn3]

Fuuuuck I was hoping we were done so I can find something else to hyper focus on for a bit. 

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

So incredibly easy to extrapolate what a similar shift at 0z would do.. Let's hope the Euro can fill in the blank for us

 

 

Wow definitely came nw!!!

[bncho]

I'm telling you, NOBODY is beating that seasonal NW trend.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

euro 18z left, 12z right. 500/vort valid sat 18z.  looks much better on the left, which is why we saw the surface improvemnt

That's a beaut. Literally went half way to the gfs in one run. The cips analog list is looking more realistic now heh

[winter_warlock]

This is off topic. But curious what's the most people we ever had in here at one time? I'm guessing  the most would be when we were tracking the blizzard of 2016. Just curious lol 

[Wow]

Randy don't you dare come into the SE forum and jinx this one as well, lol.

Though I really do think this will continue to trend NW.  I think DC has a good shot!

[understudyhero]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

This is off topic. But curious what's the most people we ever had in here at one time? I'm guessing  the most would be when we were tracking the blizzard of 2016. Just curious lol 

I would guess Feb 2010. It had it's own radio show.

They were solid locked in and you didn't have all the arm chair Facebook pages hyping up the storm. 

This was where 100% of the discussion happened.

[snowmagnet]

What was it we said last week?

Right where we want it 4 days out. It will trend north. 
 

 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, understudyhero said:

I would guess Feb 2010. It had it's own radio show.

They were solid locked in and you didn't have all the arm chair Facebook pages hyping up the storm. 

This was where 100% of the discussion happened.

Ahhh ok  I didn't think Americanwx came till later in 2010 when we all left eastern and AccuWeather later in 2010 

[csnavywx]

5 hours ago, csnavywx said:

If the meat of that developing advection lobe continues to trend west along the major axis here, the surface depiction will change in a hurry. Notable improvement at H5 already (in the same direction as the GFS/AIGFS, even if the ECAIFS only nudged a bit initially). Holding it back right now a bit is the trend in the lobe over SE Canada.

Exactly what we're looking for here, trend wise.

 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

What was it we said last week?

Right where we want it 4 days out. It will trend north. 
 

 

Agreed!!  It's seams like most big storms trend nw

[Dunkman]

Was it really that long since we moved from eastern? Damn I’m old…

[bncho]

EPS major shift NW! Maps coming soon!

[IronTy]

I've got a good feeling about this storm. 

[aldie 22]

The big question is who ultimately ends up raining with this

[Climate175]

It's crazy how just a shift could make the difference between a blockbuster storm to a whimper. Delicate pieces in play.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Dunkman said:

Was it really that long since we moved from eastern? Damn I’m old…

I'm older lol hell I was 43 when I left eastern and AccuWeather and came here in 2010.. I'm 58 now!!!   Damn I grew old with u people 

[NorthArlington101]

[FatherNature]

Nam should start showing that warm nose during the 0z run.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You ninj’ed nachos.  Pretty sneaky sis

[bncho]

Just now, BristowWx said:

You ninj’ed nachos.  Pretty sneaky sis

I don't have SV and their caveman maps. I guess cavemen were more athletic then, though, that's why the maps come out so fast.

[csnavywx]

Don't get too caught up on where exactly the QPF is landing right now. The important thing is getting it close enough. It will have the best baroclinic energy right near the start of the coastal's life, and the explosive deepening (>30mb/18hr) means there's going to be some serious reorientation of the precip shield and banding as it does this. Not really possible to nail that kind of thing down at this distance.

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Exactly what we're looking for here, trend wise.

 

You said it, need this coming down out of MN/dakotas on that western lobe. 

[midatlanticweather]

HEY MODS!

IF we get some consensus of part of the forum seeing snow at 0z, I would propose a new med to long and a weekend focus thread!  - No jinxes allowed though. Or somone does a Leeroy Jenkins thread now! LOL! 

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EPS compared to  12Z.

[Ji]

The big question is who ultimately ends up raining with this

Hopefully Arlington

[Army Mike]

Question: Is this a true Miller A? If so then would AI have a tad more trouble grasping the Synoptics since it’s so rare


.

[winter_warlock]

Georgia .. j/k 

[bncho]

Data from the recon mission for the TPV will be used in the 0z runs. Probably the most important runs of this winter season.