IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, GreyHat said: In the news Well taken literally I guess the headline is technically correct. Fails to mention that likely only the fish are likely to experience the snow...but technically it is "along East Coast". But clicks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Vort maps are the best depiction of upper level energy and how it progresses. Vorticity is where all the good stuff is born. They tell pretty much the same story though, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Nomz said: They tell pretty much the same story though, no? Bottom one is easier in my view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Nomz said: They tell pretty much the same story though, no? The 500mb shows the vort maxes farrrrrr better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Ok, extrapolating the NAM. Looks like it's heading to anywhere from 0"-32" 3 3 4 1 1 6 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: The 500mb shows the vort maxes farrrrrr better. both are at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok, extrapolating the NAM. Looks like it's heading to anywhere from 0"-32" IMO its worse than the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 True story about the number one analogue (March 2-3 1980) ... I was briefly working at Accu-weather to provide info about Canadian forecasting markets they might investigate, and their practice before a big storm was to have every forecaster draw up a map of personal snowfall estimates. Joe Bastardi of all people was in that group. I was drawing up maps for them, not providing forecasts, as I am not (was not) a degreed met, but I did draw up a forecast map and had it on a wall full of maps, and as I recall it had some pretty aggressive numbers in s.e. VA. They would then discuss all the maps ... The one person in the room who didn't say "oh that looks wrong" about my numbers was JB who I think had similar numbers on his map. You may recall, there had not been a lot of snow anywhere in the winter of 1979-80, I recall one moderate fall of about 6" across PA around Feb 10th maybe, otherwise bare ground especially further north, into the Great Lakes and northeast. Anyway, we ended up busting low but had some influence on the group consensus. (well Joe did probably) The storm dropped well over 20" in Norfolk and Virginia Beach. I think it dropped 6 to 10 inches in the DC to Baltimore region and cut off around York, PHL and ACY. At the time it was record cold all over the eastern states, this would have been maybe Feb 29th 1980 or March 1st at the latest. It was an interesting two months of weather that followed, including a monster cutoff rainstorm over the northeast in early April and hot weather records from the mid-south to the east coast in late April. My time there ended on April 30th and I didn't maintain any connections but I have met some of the well-known people at Accu-wx and it is quite the hive of weather activity hidden away in the university town of State College PA. I recall Joe as a very friendly and gregarious person who often went balls to the wall compared to the more conservative senior forecasters, and was regarded as the rising star at the time. I think I was more of a setting moon. That's where I developed my interest in long-range forecasting, they were looking at getting into that area, and I participated in a couple of brainstorming sessions, once again, maps on a wall. I remember April 1980 coming out with huge positive anomalies over the south central U.S. in advance of a very hot summer. It all grabbed my interest and I began to look for methodologies that might work using date-shifted lunar analogues (a similar pattern where you refined the timing by shifting the dates to make lunar calendar similar ... I had worked out somehow that this is the method used by the Farmers Almanac, although they based their similar years on things like solar cycles and previous few months of anomalies. I worked this out by first figuring out what winter they were using and noticing a date shift that was explained by the moon's orbital cycles in that winter compared to 1979-80. Was it worth it? Maybe not, it has been a voice in the wilderness sort of journey to say the least. But it is what it is. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Nomz said: both are at 500mb Sorry meant the vorticity map. Those maxes are far better at predicting where the energy is going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, Nomz said: They tell pretty much the same story though, no? No they don't. They show 2 very different things. Vorticity (or Positive Vorticity Advection/PVA for our purposes with storms) shows rotation and lift in the atmosphere. This is caused by upper level level winds so the plots bear resemblance but they are not the same things at all. Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally while wind maps are basically 2 dimensional. 6 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I refuse to consider the NAM on Tuesday for Saturday. I won’t do it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: No they don't. They show 2 very different things. Vorticity (or Positive Vorticity Advection/PVA for our purposes with storms) shows rotation and lift in the atmosphere. This is caused by upper level level winds so the plots bear resemblance but they are not the same things at all. Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally while wind maps are basicslly 2 dimensional. What do you mean by "Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Nomz said: What do you mean by "Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally"? Ok take this discussion elsewhere 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Yeah, NAM is putrid attm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Nomz said: What do you mean by "Vorticity maps should be visualized 3 dimensionally"? Think of it like this, you're flying on a jet into 150mph headwinds and it's nice and smooth. Would never know it's windy up there. That's the wind map. Suddenly your drink is on the ceiling and people are puking. That's the vorticity map 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The NAM at 84 was actually great for the recent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, NAM is putrid attm Maybe, but the surface map looks like the Gfs and unlike other medium range models. Just sayin'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Maybe, but the surface map looks like the Gfs and unlike other medium range models. Just sayin'. That's from 12z NAM Not like it matters, but 18z NAM looks east in its fantasy range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 part of afternoon AFD from Sterling - still keeping everything on the table while pointing out the 12Z shift in most (non-GFS) models towards an OTS solution: KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend. We continue to monitor the potential for snow associated with a coastal low this weekend. Nearly all model solutions show a strong coastal low forming, but there`s still considerable uncertainty regarding both where that low will track, and what impacts we will experience locally. Potential outcomes range anywhere from a storm that tracks well out to sea with little impact locally, to a storm that tracks closer to the coast and produces heavy snowfall across the region. The general flow pattern forecast by models has many of the synoptic features associated with Mid-Atlantic snowstorms, with ridging along the West Coast, troughing along the East Coast, ample cold air in place at the surface, and then downstream blocking over the North Atlantic. However, the trend with incoming EPS and GEPS trended significantly downward with probabilities for snow, ultimately showing a further southeast and out to sea track. The 12z GFS shows the potential snowier solution, and GEFS probabilities for snow trended upward. Spatially speaking, probabilities are highest for snow in all guidance the further southeast you go. In our area, southern Maryland would have the greatest chance at seeing snow. It`s worth noting that the flow pattern at upper levels preceding this storm is highly complex. The primary disturbance that will ultimately contribute to the development of the system is actually located over Newfoundland currently and will rotate westward around an upper low centered over Hudson Bay, before turning southward and digging out the trough that will eventually provide the forcing for the development of the coastal low. As this disturbance turns southward, it will also be influenced by an upper low over Alaska and a building ridge over the West Coast. Given the high complexity of these interactions, it may take another 1-2 days for models to settle into a higher confidence solution, and as a result, the door is still open for large forecast shifts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Discussion The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes. In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint. However, the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That AFD from Sterling was a mic drop. They said wait and see and don’t get married to any model run until tomorrow. Hard to argue that one. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I think life would be a lot more fun if all we got were surface maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That AFD from Sterling was a mic drop. They said wait and see and don’t get married to any model run until tomorrow. Hard to argue that one. I suggested Thursday depending on sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That AFD from Sterling was a mic drop. They said wait and see and don’t get married to any model run until tomorrow. Hard to argue that one. Agreed! That is pretty positive at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 ICON looking better to anyone at 78? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That AFD from Sterling was a mic drop. They said wait and see and don’t get married to any model run until tomorrow. Hard to argue that one. Glad to see Sterling and I are on the same wavelength: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Shad said: ICON looking better to anyone at 78? At h90, looks better than 12z. Also looks better than 12z euro and UK, but not as good as 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Shad said: ICON looking better to anyone at 78? NS lobe is definitely further West than 12z through 72, but doesn't look like it's gonna get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: CIPS analogs from the 12z gfs run are quite weenie'ish... lol Goodness, that's like a Who's Who of greatest hits. I like one of the mets comments in here from earlier this morning. It's a powerful and delicate setup. It'll be fun to see how this unfolds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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