January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Just give me snow this weekend. Don't care if it's a few inches, just want more snow.

[IronTy]

On Saturday we just need the whole board to go outside and point their vacuum cleaners east and turn them on full blast.  We can pull it in.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Given what the GEM and Ukie look like it's hard to imagine the Euro is gonna look much better...but I agree that we may need to give this one until tomorrow to be sure. Seems to be subtle shift kind of differences atm. Layman opinion of course...

[Climate175]

Well, on to the Euro then lol. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I don’t have high hopes for this one but, the energy for it is still up in no where land Canada so I’d give it another 24hrs or so to move into better sampling before totally pulling the plug. 

I'm  not high on it either, but I'm sticking around.   Hope level is highly dependent on the Euro.  Which is going to let us down as it always does.

[RevWarReenactor]

Weird times we are living in, GFS shows someone in delmarva getting 50+ inches of snow in just over 100 hours and we can reasonably assume the storm ends up a miss.

[winter_warlock]

Models are close enough to something big that we gotta keep checking them every 6 hours lol can't walk away

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm  not high on it either, but I'm sticking around.   Hope level is highly dependent on the Euro.  Which is going to let us down as it always does.

Waved a huge storm in front of our faces then yanked it away as always. Bastards. 

[csnavywx]

I know folks are doing the Euro vs. GFS thing, but it's more like AI vs. non-AI at this point, esp when looking at these 500mb charts. Maybe that changes this run, but interesting to note how resistant they've been to totally caving offshore.

[IronTy]

Bastardi is hyping the more western solution of the AIs.  We're in good company.  

[winter_warlock]

   Just remember folks.. the last storm ended up going west as time got closer. Went west enough to a point that we all got ice mixing in. I say give it time. Still over 100 hours away.. at least give it till were within 48 hours

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

I don't have to look at weather models online anymore.  I just read this thread and I'm fully informed. 

[colonel717]

25 minutes ago, Army Mike said:

We need NoGaps back.. always a good model to know if models are too far east… weenie book page 6


.

It still runs on certain sites.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?CONT=usus&MODELL=nogaps&VAR=uv10&HH=168

[Climate175]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

   Just remember folks.. the last storm ended up going west as time got closer. Went west enough to a point that we all got ice mixing in. I say give it time. Still over 100 hours away.. at least give it till were within 48 hours

I’m glad we get doses of reality check every now and then. I commend you lol. 

[Keith1174]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'm not seeing the social media hype over this one. Grocery stores are quite. If this suddenly trends our way the normies are going to die fighting over toilet paper. 

with the way they raided the stores last week they should have plenty of eggs, bread, milk, and toilet paper.  No need to buy for this storm

[anotherman]

Bastardi is hyping the more western solution of the AIs.  We're in good company.  

I am SHOCKED

[Leaking Gut]

[Bob Chill]

12z Icon ensembles made a notable improvement with mean qpf.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Climate175 said:

I’m glad we get doses of reality check every now and then. I commend you lol. 

 Well it could be my way of not accepting reality too lol

[Climate175]

Just now, Leaking Gut said:

It ain’t over until it over lol. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

   Just remember folks.. the last storm ended up going west as time got closer. Went west enough to a point that we all got ice mixing in. I say give it time. Still over 100 hours away.. at least give it till were within 48 hours

It was really that it went more north than west. The primary went into the OHV and transferred to a low off of Ocean City. We would've rather the primary stayed down south and transferred off the coast of NC. 

But I agree that it's too early to throw in the towel. 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

   Just remember folks.. the last storm ended up going west as time got closer. Went west enough to a point that we all got ice mixing in. I say give it time. Still over 100 hours away.. at least give it till were within 48 hours

But did the AI models? They might have adjusted slightly but I remember them, especially Euro AI, hardly budging.

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

I know folks are doing the Euro vs. GFS thing, but it's more like AI vs. non-AI at this point, esp when looking at these 500mb charts. Maybe that changes this run, but interesting to note how resistant they've been to totally caving offshore.

Both the EC-AI and AIGFS are tucking a stronger advection lobe in the far major axis of the NS trough instead of evenly distributing it along the length. The stronger and better oriented that is, the better the chance of getting this oriented correctly as it picks up the other two shortwaves.

[bncho]

Incredible shift NW on the GEFS

[soadforecasterx]

Trend on GFSai

[LeesburgWx]

I want to be back in if you guys open up the door for me… but remember when NC weenies put all there hopes and dreams in the GFS when it was the last model for hope for them? That’s where I’m struggling here. But the west trend over the last several runs is interesting 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

It ain’t over until it over lol. 

I believe the word is “cluster”. Pretty strong signal for a deepening lie around the benchmark.

[DaleCityDave]

The trend is our friend!

[nw baltimore wx]

The gfs snow map says that a town on the eastern shore changes their name to Salisburied.

[TSSN+]

The GFS puts up stats like C.J Stroud  Vs. the Pats. 

GFS

Correct Solutions/Forecasted Solutions: 3/37

Digital snow: 50”

COUPS scored: 0

Folds: 6

Verification score: 40%

C.J Stroud 

Completions/Attempts: 20/47

Passing Yards: 212

Touchdowns: 1

Interceptions: 4

Passer Rating: 28.2

Turnovers: 4 INTs, 2 lost fumbles