January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain. 

The currently depicted h5 pattern on the majority of guidance would have to be way off in order for that to happen. Ofc if you wanna ride with the UKie and Experimental Canadian model then maybe. It would likely take a phase of the shortwave energy dropping southward from the Pac NW with the Baja vortex and ejecting it all together.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain. 

I know this is perhaps meant as a semi-humorous downer post but...ironically, the GFS was kinda showing just that in the 12Z Saturday run, before it then proceeded to suppress things too much.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain. 

 

Just now, CAPE said:

The currently depicted h5 pattern on the majority of guidance would have to be way off in order for that to happen. Ofc if you wanna ride with the UKie and Experimental Canadian model then maybe. It would likely take a phase of the shortwave energy dropping southward from the Pac NW with the Baja vortex and ejecting it all together.

Yeah, suppression is by far the most likely fail scenario, especially if you sort of lump that in with "basically no storm because the shortwave doesn't really eject".  

[MN Transplant]

Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.

[bncho]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.

Why is that?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

Yeah, suppression is by far the most likely fail scenario, especially if you sort of lump that in with "basically no storm because the shortwave doesn't really eject".  

Agree, given the current setup look, suppression is more likely in terms of how this could fail.  But I'd still like to be optimistic (won't necessarily say "confident") that even a bit of suppression where we end up on the northern edge of the best snow would still be a win for us.  That would still be warning-level snows, literally cold powder.  I think last night's Euro showed that scenario?  Heck if we can even increase the amount of moisture being thrown into the cold air, expand the precip shield, that would be nice too.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.

You mean euro ai? Never heard of euro surface temps being broken. 

[nj2va]

Time to start the thread? 

[TSSN+]

Just now, nj2va said:

Time to start the thread? 

No 

[bncho]

Euro AI: our savior, strong and unwavering

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

Euro AI: our savior, strong and unwavering

Wonder if it’s picking up first that the high won’t be that strong cause it usually isn’t. Thus the slow north trend in it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Time to start the thread? 

Absolutely not. Not under were inside HR 60.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

9 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I know this is perhaps meant as a semi-humorous downer post but...ironically, the GFS was kinda showing just that in the 12Z Saturday run, before it then proceeded to suppress things too much.

I mean yes, of course the pattern looks to be very cold.  But all these years of many many many 35 degree rainstorms has taught me to be wary until we are very close. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

Why is that?

It has a cold bias at range but in this case the GFS is pretty similar with temps leading in. Both in the teens.

[NorthArlington101]

Euro AI: our savior, strong and unwavering

Yeah idk if this is unwavering. One of the more concerning things I’ve seen, lol. But still got breathing room.

[DDweatherman]

What’s the obsession with storm threads? The grown adults can handle being focused on a storm during a real window. Mods will be tightening early if this looks legit. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah idk if this is unwavering. One of the more concerning things I’ve seen, lol. But still got breathing room.

It's surprisingly consistent for an operational model. And yeah, it's shifting north, but it sure as hell is better than the GFS.

[anotherman]

What’s the obsession with storm threads? The grown adults can handle being focused on a storm during a real window. Mods will be tightening early if this looks legit. 

Totally agree.

[IUsedToHateCold]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

What’s the obsession with storm threads? The grown adults can handle being focused on a storm during a real window. Mods will be tightening early if this looks legit. 

The thread, as well as the starter, makes or breaks the storm. We all know that. 

[GreyHat]

2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The thread, as well as the starter, makes or breaks the storm. We all know that. 

Maybe after 12z models on Wednesday 

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah idk if this is unwavering. One of the more concerning things I’ve seen, lol. But still got breathing room.

Just wait for the snow to ice event to end all ice events. To be completely honest that is the real worst case scenario from impacts perspective and not an unlikely one. Would be a significant snow storm followed by a bit of sleet than freezing rain which would actually accrete to everything with temperatures in the teens before crashing to near 0 with widespread blackouts from the storm. IMO this is what we gotta avoid from a “holy shit people will die” perspective. 

[Warm Nose]

34 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain. 

Except for Georgetown, of course ...

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I know, that's why I posted. It shifted south.

Kinda just noise at this range though. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I mean yes, of course the pattern looks to be very cold.  But all these years of many many many 35 degree rainstorms has taught me to be wary until we are very close. 

I know, we've all been there, done that, have the T-shirt.  Which is why I mentioned the GFS was showing that kind of scenario just the other day before it began suppressing everything, and everyone got freaked out at that.  I still think currently, that's the least likely scenario...if anything I can see a snow to ice (or snow-ice-snow) outcome if this ends up going "too far" north in the end.

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just wait for the snow to ice event to end all ice events. To be completely honest that is the real worst case scenario from impacts perspective and not an unlikely one. Would be a significant snow storm followed by a bit of sleet than freezing rain which would actually accrete to everything with temperatures in the teens before crashing to near 0 with widespread blackouts from the storm. IMO this is what we gotta avoid from a “holy shit people will die” perspective. 

I think I’m still more concerned about suppression so I think I agree with you. My scenarios are good snowstorm, whiff south and something light, and snow -> way too icy. No idea how I’d weigh each option but finding it hard to see is getting skunked 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Kinda just noise at this range though. 

You're referring to the 06Z EPS that was shown earlier?  I agree.  I made these comments earlier, but (1) it stops at 144-h, and I don't think that's the entire storm and (2) to me, it appeared that the max snow area actually widened or expanded.  Either way, yeah, one could argue that the axis shifted a bit south but right now it's mostly noise.

[WxUSAF]

 

[MN Transplant]

25 minutes ago, bncho said:

Why is that?

@high risk would have a better explanation, but usually if the models are struggling with surface temps while everything else looks normal, it is something to do with how they are implementing approximations via a boundary layer scheme.  Global and regional models simply can't calculate everything, so you effectively end up with little "models" inside of models.  Models have always struggled with how to calculate the mixing and radiative transfer near the surface in stable conditions.  The Euro is handling this poorly, which is how you get a minus teens forecast for parts of Virginia next week, which is not going to happen.  I think it is even struggling with temps in the pre-storm period on Saturday, given the much colder surface temps than the GFS despite only 1° difference at 925mb.  I'd just be cautious with any surface temp output from the Euro right now.

[bncho]

Ben Noll being optimistic now lol

[stormtracker]

40 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Time to start the thread? 

 

40 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

No 

After 12z run probably.  Gotta get rid of the superstitious studs dawg.  Embrace the thrill!