January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FWIW - the new Canadian (I think it replaces the old in the spring) is light snow -> sleet -> little bit of FRZA. So it’s amped and totally different than the about-to-be-replaced version

Where do we get it, if you have a link? Ty

[bncho]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Where do we get it, if you have a link? Ty

It's on WxBELL.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I am going to look at the last 10 years of results and congratulate the fine people of VA Beach on another snow storm.

Weenie me.

Why congratulate 5 days before a Storm?

[NorthArlington101]

Where do we get it, if you have a link? Ty

It’s on WxBell - don’t know if it’s available unpaid anywhere. This is prob the “money” frame but 850s are toasted. Surface is more than cold, though.

[mitchnick]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Why congratulate 5 days before a Storm?

I don't think it was meant for them to be successful, unless he's thinking his drought continues. 

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm too young to be looking at porn... 

 Serious storm potential and we're only 5-6  days out!

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm too young to be looking at porn... 

I started at 7 years old. 

[mattie g]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it.  The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well.  Will this setup be record-breaking?  Hard to say.  But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.  

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the suppressed look on the GFS is less to do with anomalous strength of that high (it doesn’t seem that terribly strong) and more to do with the energy not ejecting from around the Baja.

Definitely take your point regarding how the AI models may not “want” to reflect the more extreme potential in the atmosphere, though.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s on WxBell - don’t know if it’s available unpaid anywhere. This is prob the “money” frame but 850s are toasted. Surface is more than cold, though.

Hard to think the cold up north will retreat that fast, but it's probably representative of a furthest north ensemble members. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I started at 7 years old. 

That's latter than I thought for you. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s on WxBell - don’t know if it’s available unpaid anywhere. This is prob the “money” frame but 850s are toasted. Surface is more than cold, though.

That could still be a decent event though

[EstorilM]

Wow, the whole 23-26th time frame changed overnight it seems (as it does..) This is the weekend I'm going out to Wisp though.  A few days ago the high on sat was like 40.  Now it's 10!  Low Friday night is -5.  I kinda wish I had a block heater for my truck ugh. Looks like precip popped up for almost every day/night during the period as well, but that's like extreme NW MD in the mountains / resort areas so that's different. 

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm too young to be looking at porn... 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the suppressed look on the GFS is less to do with anomalous strength of that high (it doesn’t seem that terribly strong) and more to do with the energy not ejecting from around the Baja.

Definitely take your point regarding how the AI models may not “want” to reflect the more extreme potential in the atmosphere, though.

I mean, I think it's all linked?  The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it.  If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east.  But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just blend all guidance and our region is the cross hairs.  We may finally get the region wide storm we’ve needed for about a decade. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, I think it's all linked?  The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it.  If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east.  But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower. 

Also notice the PV is more east on gfs than euro, aifs, aigfs

[CAPE]

Both the EPS and GEFS eject significant energy eastward from upper low moving southward towards Baja.

[Ji]

The Euro at 105 is bringing out the shortwave from Baja. Its like its 240 hours out. I would hope that kind of model can nail this at 105

[bncho]

This winter storm will be a pivotal moment in modeling history. It's the AI models (apparently Google's AI, WeatherNEXT, showed an Euro AI solution after being slightly south) vs the physics models. This storm could change our perspective of current modeling—we may crown a new king.

[TSSN+]

I mean the constancy here is great. Hope it has the right idea. Last 4 runs of euro ai. 
 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Standard Disclaimer: RE: mixing

To keep from and mixing, we do not want to primary low running too deep into West Virginia. Also would need some sort of coastal transfer to lock in cold air east of the mountains. 

[EstorilM]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

To keep from and mixing, we do not want to primary low running too deep into West Virginia. Also would need some sort of coastal transfer to lock in cold air east of the mountains. 

I'm not sure it'll matter much with the temps we're looking at now... insane prolonged cold. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

To keep from and mixing, we do not want to primary low running too deep into West Virginia. Also would need some sort of coastal transfer to lock in cold air east of the mountains. 

I’d rather worry about mixing than getting smokin cirrus while the storm passes south. 

[bncho]

Do any of yall have any idea what the Google WeatherNEXT is? Apparently its verification scores are up there with the Euro and Euro AI, but I've never heard about it until joining SouthernWX.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, EstorilM said:

I'm not sure it'll matter much with the temps we're looking at now... insane prolonged cold. 

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Do any of yall have any idea what the Google WeatherNEXT is? Apparently its verification scores are up there with the Euro and Euro AI, but I've never heard about it until joining SouthernWX.

Perhaps a good case study for you

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Do any of yall have any idea what the Google WeatherNEXT is? Apparently its verification scores are up there with the Euro and Euro AI, but I've never heard about it until joining SouthernWX.

Still new and untested model like AI-GFS and its ensembles. But it has potential

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Still new and untested model like AI-GFS and its ensembles. But it has potential

Well then, FWIW, the Google WeatherNEXT showed a very Euro-AI like solution

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Stolen from the southern forum. Just out to 144, of course

Kinda hard to say that it's a definitive shift south per se.  I mean, yeah, the axis of max amount shifts a bit that way but a couple of things.  First (and as you say) this is out to 144h, there's still surely at least some more beyond that time.  Next, notice how the max area actually expands or widens (looking at the dark blue and higher area).  Probably nothing, but still interesting perhaps.  And really at this point it's more or less noise.  Catching up on the last several pages here (and...ahem!...ignoring certain posts!), I agree with the overall idea that we're in a pretty good spot, taking into account the AI models, GFS, Euro, GEFS, EPS, and even the CMC.  Others probably already said this, but while a more suppressed solution is clearly on the table here (seems like a "cutter" is much less likely right now), even if we're on the northern edge of the best stuff we still would get a really solid amount of cold smoke.  Would we all like to end up in the max zone?  Yeah of course (duh!)!!  But a warning-level event through this region even on the "edge" isn't something I'd sneeze at.

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean the constancy here is great. Hope it has the right idea. Last 4 runs of euro ai. 
 

 

Remarkable consistency especially with the high up north the low is jumping around a bit that last low placement jumped pretty good northwest but nervous about that placement.  Hopefully the low dampens out and transfers to the coast to lock in the cold air.