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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FWIW - the new Canadian (I think it replaces the old in the spring) is light snow -> sleet -> little bit of FRZA. So it’s amped and totally different than the about-to-be-replaced version

Where do we get it, if you have a link? Ty

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18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it.  The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well.  Will this setup be record-breaking?  Hard to say.  But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.  

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the suppressed look on the GFS is less to do with anomalous strength of that high (it doesn’t seem that terribly strong) and more to do with the energy not ejecting from around the Baja.

Definitely take your point regarding how the AI models may not “want” to reflect the more extreme potential in the atmosphere, though.

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


It’s on WxBell - don’t know if it’s available unpaid anywhere. This is prob the “money” frame but 850s are toasted. Surface is more than cold, though.
87691ba0e359cfbb16b3d4b4babec723.jpg

Hard to think the cold up north will retreat that fast, but it's probably representative of a furthest north ensemble members. 

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Wow, the whole 23-26th time frame changed overnight it seems (as it does..) This is the weekend I'm going out to Wisp though.  A few days ago the high on sat was like 40.  Now it's 10!  Low Friday night is -5.  I kinda wish I had a block heater for my truck ugh. Looks like precip popped up for almost every day/night during the period as well, but that's like extreme NW MD in the mountains / resort areas so that's different. 

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the suppressed look on the GFS is less to do with anomalous strength of that high (it doesn’t seem that terribly strong) and more to do with the energy not ejecting from around the Baja.

Definitely take your point regarding how the AI models may not “want” to reflect the more extreme potential in the atmosphere, though.

I mean, I think it's all linked?  The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it.  If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east.  But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, I think it's all linked?  The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it.  If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east.  But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower. 

Also notice the PV is more east on gfs than euro, aifs, aigfs

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This winter storm will be a pivotal moment in modeling history. It's the AI models (apparently Google's AI, WeatherNEXT, showed an Euro AI solution after being slightly south) vs the physics models. This storm could change our perspective of current modeling—we may crown a new king.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

To keep from and mixing, we do not want to primary low running too deep into West Virginia. Also would need some sort of coastal transfer to lock in cold air east of the mountains. 

I'm not sure it'll matter much with the temps we're looking at now... insane prolonged cold. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

To keep from and mixing, we do not want to primary low running too deep into West Virginia. Also would need some sort of coastal transfer to lock in cold air east of the mountains. 

I’d rather worry about mixing than getting smokin cirrus while the storm passes south. 

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3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Do any of yall have any idea what the Google WeatherNEXT is? Apparently its verification scores are up there with the Euro and Euro AI, but I've never heard about it until joining SouthernWX.

Still new and untested model like AI-GFS and its ensembles. But it has potential

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Stolen from the southern forum. Just out to 144, of course

1083643908_pivotal-weather-epsens-sn10_024h-mean-imp-us_ma(1).gif.ab774c3fb5ea878764f67d094b66986c.gif

Kinda hard to say that it's a definitive shift south per se.  I mean, yeah, the axis of max amount shifts a bit that way but a couple of things.  First (and as you say) this is out to 144h, there's still surely at least some more beyond that time.  Next, notice how the max area actually expands or widens (looking at the dark blue and higher area).  Probably nothing, but still interesting perhaps.  And really at this point it's more or less noise.  Catching up on the last several pages here (and...ahem!...ignoring certain posts!), I agree with the overall idea that we're in a pretty good spot, taking into account the AI models, GFS, Euro, GEFS, EPS, and even the CMC.  Others probably already said this, but while a more suppressed solution is clearly on the table here (seems like a "cutter" is much less likely right now), even if we're on the northern edge of the best stuff we still would get a really solid amount of cold smoke.  Would we all like to end up in the max zone?  Yeah of course (duh!)!!  But a warning-level event through this region even on the "edge" isn't something I'd sneeze at.

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20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean the constancy here is great. Hope it has the right idea. Last 4 runs of euro ai. 
 

 

IMG_9549.gif

Remarkable consistency especially with the high up north the low is jumping around a bit that last low placement jumped pretty good northwest but nervous about that placement.  Hopefully the low dampens out and transfers to the coast to lock in the cold air. 

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