January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Increasing sun angle ftw

Will never forget when Bob called it the dumb angle (talking about this sub) hahahaha

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s too far out for this 

Agreed. We have seen storms with seemingly great support fall apart inside day 5. As Eskimo Joe says we should all wait till Thursday to really get invested. As of now these runs are fun to think about but don't tell us anything other than the potential being there. I'm not trying to debbie down but just prevent the hype train from completely crashing and derailing the thread if an AI model pulls out (which could be temporary we still have 7 days!). FYI I am extremely proud of the derailing pun 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, and what’s more, op gfs has been ranking near the bottom for verification scores

I wonder why? lol 

[anotherman]

I wonder why? lol 

It’s so hard to figure out.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS, AI GFS, EURO, and EURO AI at Day 6.

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Will never forget when Bob called it the dumb angle (talking about this sub) hahahaha

That and the correlation coefficient are enemies of snow

[poolz1]

Euro has snow breaking out mid morning Saturday with temps in the single digits.  

[TSSN+]

18z regular euro. It’s trying 

 

[Disc]

18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday.

 

[bncho]

I, for one, will actually believe the AI solutions for now. Is it because I'm a weenie? Probably a little bit of bias there, but I just feel like in the last two winters, once the Euro AI locks onto a solution it will stay there. I can't say that about the GFS and the Euro that always heartbreaks us.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Disc said:

18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday.

 

Euro would've been pretty good

[LongRanger]

Clara Peller would ask, "Where's the blocking?!?"

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

And verbatim totals would be higher with Kuchera...

Jesus lol 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Disc said:

18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday.

 

And moisture angling wsw-ene instead of due east (or even SE!)

[Weather Will]

I don't think the EURO AI ever had the February snowstorm last year...so it is a good test.

It is also worth pointing out again  what others have said already, latest few runs of the EURO weeklies continue to look good for February so there should be more chances.

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro would've been pretty good

  So... 18zAI gfs,18z AI euro, and  18zEuro  all show a big hit, and 18z GFS shows out to sea...    Doesnt take a genius to figure out which way to lean 

[bncho]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I don't think the EURO AI ever had the February snowstorm last year...so it is a good test.

It is also worth pointing out again  what others have said already, latest few runs of the EURO weeklies continue to look good for February so there should be more chances.

This also another reason why I'm buying the AI solutions this time around.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I don't think the EURO AI ever had the February snowstorm last year...so it is a good test.

It is also worth pointing out again  what others have said already, latest few runs of the EURO weeklies continue to look good for February so there should be more chances.

Yeah iirc it was stubbornly SE of the rest of all guidance and we were willing it to come NW. In vain of course. 

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah iirc it was stubbornly SE of the rest of al guidance and we were willing it to come NW. In vain of course. 

Before then I think we all took it as some sort of joke, but now we take it real serious when it shows something, whether it's the same or different than what other guidance shows.

[stormtracker]

So wait.  What you’re saying is this thing may be at 120hours tomm this time?   What a minute hold the fuck up….

[bncho]

@stormtracker happy (early) MLK day to you as well! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So wait.  What you’re saying is this thing may be at 120hours tomm this time?   What a minute hold the fuck up….

Respect to your avatar sir!

[Amped]

AI GFS and AI Euro did pretty good this week. They better not let us down next week.

 

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And moisture angling wsw-ene instead of due east (or even SE!)

And it’s on the weekend…which we’re really good at.

[Bob Chill]

35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang it, lolol

It's a classic setup for a widespread SE and/or MA winter storm. The snow stripe has potential to cover a lot of real estate. The 18z gfs left the key piece behind and that's still possible but it's also on its own right now. The gfs version would be a weak/sheared storm that could still hit the MA but big totals wouldn't be there. 

Suppression is a risk for sure and that includes my yard. The stronger the storm the less chance of suppression because it's hard to fight off a stronger storm from gaining latitude. Especially in the SE/MA.

Imho, if the shortwave doesn't hang back like the gfs shows, there's going to be a nice event for the TN valley, SE, and MA. It will prob include a decent stripe of sleet and and freezing rain somewhere with the SE being favored. The all snow areas just to the north of the mix will do very well. Could be my yard, could be yours. Impossible to know that right now and not worth dissecting.

Only thing we should care about is whether there is a solid cohesive storm coming or a weaker/sheared event. If it's a cohesive classic storm the MA would be all snow. I have a lot more mixing risk but walking that line is often one of the jack zones. I feel pretty optimistic about a fun storm that covers a lot of real estate but until we're inside of 96 hours, can't marry any idea. We could all get zero and NC south getting hit flush. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

@stormtracker, will echo others and say I always like and appreciate your MLK avatar picture in honor of Dr. King each year! 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a classic setup for a widespread SE and/or MA winter storm. The snow stripe has potential to cover a lot of real estate. The 18z gfs left the key piece behind and that's still possible but it's also on its own right now. The gfs version would be a weak/sheared storm that could still hit the MA but big totals wouldn't be there. 

Suppression is a risk for sure and that includes my yard. The stronger the storm the less chance of suppression because it's hard to fight off a stronger storm from gaining latitude. Especially in the SE/MA.

Imho, if the shortwave doesn't hang back like the gfs shows, there's going to be a nice event for the TN valley, SE, and MA. It will prob include a decent stripe of sleet and and freezing rain somewhere with the SE being favored. The all snow areas just to the north of the mix will do very well. Could be my yard, could be yours. Impossible to know that right now and not worth dissecting.

Only thing we should care about is whether there is a solid cohesive storm coming or a weaker/sheared event. If it's a cohesive classic storm the MA would be all snow. I have a lot more mixing risk but walking that line is often one of the jack zones. I feel pretty optimistic about a fun storm that covers a lot of real estate buy until we're inside of 96 hours, can't marry any idea. We could all get zero and NC south getting hit flush. 

This echos my thoughts, same page. Increased chance of suppression based on recent runs bút still not the most likely outcome. Just can’t discount the idea right now

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

@stormtracker happy (early) MLK day to you as well! 

 

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Respect to your avatar sir!

Yeah, I change it for the day every year.  

[MillvilleWx]

22 minutes ago, Disc said:

18z euro nice and amped. Faster too. Snow already falling across much of the area by mid-day Saturday.

 

Banana high on this is classic too. Long way to go, but I’m optimistic. 

[mattie g]

32 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Agreed. We have seen storms with seemingly great support fall apart inside day 5. As Eskimo Joe says we should all wait till Thursday to really get invested. As of now these runs are fun to think about but don't tell us anything other than the potential being there. I'm not trying to debbie down but just prevent the hype train from completely crashing and derailing the thread if an AI model pulls out (which could be temporary we still have 7 days!). FYI I am extremely proud of the derailing pun 

I’m already invested. Thing is…while I’ll be disappointed if it doesn’t pan out, I won’t lose my shit and will just look to the next window with an eye to knowing it’ll soon enough be spring!