January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

That looks exactly like AIgfs 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright Bob you gotta gut instinct for this kind of setup?

Definitely. SW and central VA jackpot. Lalalalockitup

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

That looks exactly like AIgfs 

Coastal cranking. Solid.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI for next weekend....

A locked in AIFS is a dangerous thing… 

[TSSN+]

Roll with the AI overlords 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

Has the classic damming signature as well, with what looks like a secondary low forming east of NC/VA (perhaps a bit east of the classic scenario but it's there).

[clskinsfan]

Op GFS is the only model driving a 1050 high down into the center of the country. Both AI models look very similar with the strength and position of the HP. Which is nearly perfect for us. I am thinking the GFS is wrong. But who knows a week out. 

[Heisy]

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

You got a guest room if this verifies?! lol sheeeesh


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[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Want to see a snow storm, put on the end of the Patriots game....

Nah can stand the patriots

[mattie g]

AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week.

It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Roll with the AI overloads 

 

Both AI GFS and AI Euro look almost identical

[87storms]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out. Not every day we get 1050 highs rolling in south from canada

Even this week’s temps are looking a little higher than they did a few days ago. Was expecting a brutally cold week ahead, but looks like only Tuesday will be bitter. The rest of the days show 30s/40s for highs.

[benjammin]

I for one welcome our new AI overlords if this comes to fruition.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week.

It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.

Really nice CAD signature on both AI models as well.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Definitely. SW and central VA jackpot. Lalalalockitup

Dang it, lolol

[Eskimo Joe]

18z Euro AI is just nice. Cold, snow, great long duration event.

[aldie 22]

Who's proofreading the AI models i sure hope these recent runs don't have 7 fingers on one hand or something 

[TSSN+]

Already been told the AI versions of gfs and euro been skunking the normal ones at this range so not sure why people worried about the lesser model at this range. 

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, benjammin said:

I for one welcome our new AI overlords if this comes to fruition.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Me too io welcome all the AI overlords 

[mattie g]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Really nice CAD signature on both AI models as well.

There is. It’s cold as F and there’s no flow to scour out that cold, so precip is falling through some deep cold. Those events are where we can rack up some serious totals over multiple hours without any worries over flipping.

[LeesburgWx]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI for next weekend....

My God. Let’s get this locked up. Absolute perfect coverage for us

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Even this week’s temps are looking a little higher than they did a few days ago. Was expecting a brutally cold week ahead, but looks like only Tuesday will be bitter. The rest of the days show 30s/40s for highs.

Yeah I was surprised to see a near 50⁰ day mixed in there.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Already been told the AI versions of gfs and euro been skunking the normal ones at this range so not sure why people worried about the lesser model at this range. 

 Makes me wonder if the AI models are doing so much better then the op models like everyone says.., how long will they even keep using the op models .

[snowmagnet]

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week.

It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.

2016..

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI for next weekend....

Jesus H Christ!!!

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Who's proofreading the AI models i sure hope these recent runs don't have 7 fingers on one hand or something 

I hate that I can’t spot an AI image simply by looking at fingers anymore.

Bring me a fat f’ing dumping with a return NW flow a few days before/during  our multi-family trip to Wisp later that week and I’ll be a VERY happy man…

[Weather Will]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Jesus H Christ!!!

And verbatim totals would be higher with Kuchera...

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I was surprised to see a near 50⁰ day mixed in there.

Increasing sun angle ftw

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Long way to go, but right now I’d feel really good if I’m a weenie in NC, S half of VA. N SC

18z Euro Ai is a huge hit fyi


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For none of the areas you mentioned

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Already been told the AI versions of gfs and euro been skunking the normal ones at this range so not sure why people worried about the lesser model at this range. 

Yeah, and what’s more, op gfs has been ranking near the bottom for verification scores