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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week.

It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.

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24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out. Not every day we get 1050 highs rolling in south from canada

Even this week’s temps are looking a little higher than they did a few days ago. Was expecting a brutally cold week ahead, but looks like only Tuesday will be bitter. The rest of the days show 30s/40s for highs.

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week.

It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.

Really nice CAD signature on both AI models as well.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Really nice CAD signature on both AI models as well.

There is. It’s cold as F and there’s no flow to scour out that cold, so precip is falling through some deep cold. Those events are where we can rack up some serious totals over multiple hours without any worries over flipping.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Even this week’s temps are looking a little higher than they did a few days ago. Was expecting a brutally cold week ahead, but looks like only Tuesday will be bitter. The rest of the days show 30s/40s for highs.

Yeah I was surprised to see a near 50⁰ day mixed in there.

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Just now, TSSN+ said:

Already been told the AI versions of gfs and euro been skunking the normal ones at this range so not sure why people worried about the lesser model at this range. 

 Makes me wonder if the AI models are doing so much better then the op models like everyone says.., how long will they even keep using the op models .

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7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week.

It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.

2016..

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1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Who's proofreading the AI models i sure hope these recent runs don't have 7 fingers on one hand or something 

I hate that I can’t spot an AI image simply by looking at fingers anymore.

Bring me a fat f’ing dumping with a return NW flow a few days before/during  our multi-family trip to Wisp later that week and I’ll be a VERY happy man…

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3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Already been told the AI versions of gfs and euro been skunking the normal ones at this range so not sure why people worried about the lesser model at this range. 

Yeah, and what’s more, op gfs has been ranking near the bottom for verification scores

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