MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I wouldn’t pay much attention to the AI models for mesoscale features. But synoptic scale? Euro AI is a cheat code inside D4-5. GFSAI outperforming physics-based GFS as well Euro AI (AIFS) has the best verification of areal 0.25+” precip coverage at D3-5 right now, second best at D2 and still top 5 inside 24 hrs. It’s not the magnitude you want to pay attention to with AI. It’s the location of the precip distribution and the handling of the 5H mean trough/ridge pattern. It’s very powerful and definitely worthy of looking at for synoptically driven pattern. Convection is okay and still does a relatively good job at location of potential precip maxima, but it cannot handle the magnitude at all. Struggled mightily in that area, but useful nonetheless! 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: The big thing is getting that STJ energy to eject E 12z ai made a huge progression change in doing that. The prior 6z run buried it under the ridge If it really does head east this is the best chance for a MECS in a decade. . I really thought a few days ago it was going to sit longer and come out delayed after the 27th. Still could, I suppose. But I am quite OK with it being ejected as depicted on the ens means and getting an ECS this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, bncho said: JFC the Euro AI Ensemble has a 3 day snow mean for Jan 25-27 is like 6+" I think, have to wait for slow ass wxbell to confirm Yea, I think it's 7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles. GEFS: ~4" EPS: ~5" EPS-AI: ~7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, bncho said: GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles. GEFS: ~4" EPS: ~5" EPS-AI: ~7" And that’s still damn good! I like we where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, bncho said: GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles. GEFS: ~4" EPS: ~5" EPS-AI: ~7" This will be the one time Goofus is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Not a peep about the massive moisture plume coming out of the Gulf next week on the euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 EPS 4-5", favors south central VA 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, bncho said: EPS 4-5", favors south central VA Love where we stand right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, bncho said: EPS 4-5", favors south central VA That's still great for us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, bncho said: EPS 4-5", favors south central VA So tasty looking! Let’s get this to Tuesday/Wednesday please then it’s game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, bncho said: Yea, I think it's 7". Euro AI 7-9", favors VA/NC border, but I'm fairly sure that's because it's counting all that ice there as snow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The EuroAI at least makes an attempt at a decent southern stream wave. All other models show a strung out smothered frontal ripple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 This is a damn near perfect setup for a cold powder moderate 4-6"+ snow event for the MA. The risk ofc is suppression. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is a damn near perfect setup for a cold powder moderate 4-6"+ snow event for the MA. The risk ofc is suppression. In order of verification over the years highest to lowest Heat - 100% Drought - 85% Extreme Cold - 25% Snow - 4% 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Not a peep about the massive moisture plume coming out of the Gulf next week on the euro? lol, what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, bncho said: EPS 4-5", favors south central VA The question is how much does the operational increase the numbers in VA since it is part of the Eps average (I believe) and it's quite a dump down there. Someone correct me if the operational numbers aren't part of the Eps mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The question is how much does the operational increase the numbers in VA since it is part of the Eps average (I believe) and it's quite a dump down there. Someone correct me if the operational numbers aren't part of the Eps mean. I thought the control was the op member of the ensemble but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 27 minutes ago, bncho said: GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles. GEFS: ~4" EPS: ~5" EPS-AI: ~7" Strong signal for a plowable snowfall (maybe 4" - 8"?) at D7 is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Strong signal for a plowable snowfall (maybe 4" - 8"?) at D7 is legit. We are trying so hard to not jump the gun on talking about a big dog, but with the AI’s showing it it’s so hard not to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 For the next 7 days, 4 ensembles and the ECM control give my area a blended 9.3 inches of snow. The GFS control gives me 0..................... This chart will be very interesting to follow-up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is a damn near perfect setup for a cold powder moderate 4-6"+ snow event for the MA. The risk ofc is suppression. The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: We are trying so hard to not jump the gun on talking about a big dog, but with the AI’s showing it it’s so hard not to. Agreed. This is probably our best shot for a widespread, warning level snowfall this season. My go/no go would be the 12z runs on Thursday, 1/22. My goal for this window is at least one, widespread warning level snowfall of 6"+. Bonus would be two, warning level snowfalls of 6"+. That would cement the region with it's first above normal snowfall in a decade. Bottom line: I'm very optimistic about the period Jan 25 - Feb 15. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens. You have a snow map for that? What was the northern cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: You have a snow map for that? What was the northern cutoff That was the one that trended north in the last few days. Perfect 6 inches for dc if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I thought the control was the op member of the ensemble but I could be wrong. Control is or was a slightly lower resolution version of the Op. I think EPS has gone to the same resolution as the Op now though? Or is planning to soon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro looks to be below freezing for about a week starting next Sat. Still low sun angle, that could be a nice solid week of snowcover if it came to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens. Meh...5" back in Linthicum and maybe an inch up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.What a great storm. Looked like nothing 5 days out, and just kept inching north until we were in the max stripeSent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Meh...5" back in Linthicum and maybe an inch up here. Thanks. I was in Gettysburg at the time and I have little to no memory of that (college days). One inch fits me not remembering. But then we got annihilated in the twin HECS/MECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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