January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MillvilleWx]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I wouldn’t pay much attention to the AI models for mesoscale features. But synoptic scale? Euro AI is a cheat code inside D4-5. GFSAI outperforming physics-based GFS as well

Euro AI (AIFS) has the best verification of areal 0.25+” precip coverage at D3-5 right now, second best at D2 and still top 5 inside 24 hrs. It’s not the magnitude you want to pay attention to with AI. It’s the location of the precip distribution and the handling of the 5H mean trough/ridge pattern. It’s very powerful and definitely worthy of looking at for synoptically driven pattern. Convection is okay and still does a relatively good job at location of potential precip maxima, but it cannot handle the magnitude at all. Struggled mightily in that area, but useful nonetheless! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The big thing is getting that STJ energy to eject E

12z ai made a huge progression change in doing that.

The prior 6z run buried it under the ridge

If it really does head east this is the best chance for a MECS in a decade.




.

I really thought a few days ago it was going to sit longer and come out delayed after the 27th. Still could, I suppose. But I am quite OK with it being ejected as depicted on the ens means and getting an ECS this weekend.

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

JFC the Euro AI Ensemble has a 3 day snow mean for Jan 25-27 is like 6+" I think, have to wait for slow ass wxbell to confirm

Yea, I think it's 7".

[bncho]

GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles.
GEFS: ~4"
EPS: ~5"
EPS-AI: ~7"

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles.
GEFS: ~4"
EPS: ~5"
EPS-AI: ~7"

And that’s still damn good! I like we where we stand. 

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles.
GEFS: ~4"
EPS: ~5"
EPS-AI: ~7"

This will be the one time Goofus is correct

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Not a peep about the massive moisture plume coming out of the Gulf next week on the euro? 

[bncho]

EPS 4-5", favors south central VA

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

EPS 4-5", favors south central VA

Love where we stand right now

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

EPS 4-5", favors south central VA

That's still great for us!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS 4-5", favors south central VA

So tasty looking! Let’s get this to Tuesday/Wednesday please then it’s game on. 

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yea, I think it's 7".

Euro AI 7-9", favors VA/NC border, but I'm fairly sure that's because it's counting all that ice there as snow

[Amped]

The EuroAI at least makes an attempt at a decent southern stream wave. All other models show a strung out smothered frontal ripple.

 

[CAPE]

This is a damn near perfect setup for a cold powder moderate 4-6"+ snow event for the MA. The risk ofc is suppression.

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a damn near perfect setup for a cold powder moderate 4-6"+ snow event for the MA. The risk ofc is suppression.

In order of verification over the years highest to lowest 

Heat - 100%

Drought - 85%

Extreme Cold - 25%

Snow - 4%

 

 

[stormtracker]

18 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Not a peep about the massive moisture plume coming out of the Gulf next week on the euro? 

lol, what?

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS 4-5", favors south central VA

The question is how much does the operational increase the numbers in VA since it is part of the Eps average (I believe) and it's quite a dump down there. 

Someone correct me if the operational numbers aren't part of the Eps mean.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The question is how much does the operational increase the numbers in VA since it is part of the Eps average (I believe) and it's quite a dump down there. 

Someone correct me if the operational numbers aren't part of the Eps mean.

I thought the control was the op member of the ensemble but I could be wrong. 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles.
GEFS: ~4"
EPS: ~5"
EPS-AI: ~7"

Strong signal for a plowable snowfall (maybe 4" - 8"?) at D7 is legit.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Strong signal for a plowable snowfall (maybe 4" - 8"?) at D7 is legit.

We are trying so hard to not jump the gun on talking about a big dog, but with the AI’s showing it it’s so hard not to.  

[stormy]

For the next 7 days, 4 ensembles and the ECM control give my area a blended  9.3  inches of snow.

The GFS control gives me 0.....................

This chart will be very interesting to follow-up on.

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a damn near perfect setup for a cold powder moderate 4-6"+ snow event for the MA. The risk ofc is suppression.

The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

We are trying so hard to not jump the gun on talking about a big dog, but with the AI’s showing it it’s so hard not to.  

Agreed. This is probably our best shot for a widespread, warning level snowfall this season. My go/no go would be the 12z runs on Thursday, 1/22. My goal for this window is at least one, widespread warning level snowfall of 6"+. Bonus would be two, warning level snowfalls of 6"+. That would cement the region with it's first above normal snowfall in a decade.

Bottom line: I'm very optimistic about the period Jan 25 - Feb 15.

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.

You have a snow map for that? What was the northern cutoff

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

You have a snow map for that? What was the northern cutoff

That was the one that trended north in the last few days.  Perfect 6 inches for dc if I remember correctly. 

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I thought the control was the op member of the ensemble but I could be wrong. 

Control is or was a slightly lower resolution version of the Op. I think EPS has gone to the same resolution as the Op now though? Or is planning to soon? 

[somecallmetim]

Euro looks to be below freezing for about a week starting next Sat. Still low sun angle, that could be a nice solid week of snowcover if it came to pass. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.

Meh...5" back in Linthicum and maybe an inch up here.

[AlexD1990]

The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.

What a great storm. Looked like nothing 5 days out, and just kept inching north until we were in the max stripe

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Meh...5" back in Linthicum and maybe an inch up here.

Thanks. I was in Gettysburg at the time and I have little to no memory of that (college days).  One inch fits me not remembering. But then we got annihilated in the twin HECS/MECS