January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Ok, 204, moisture gathering in the middle of the country from IL straight to south with more over TX

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

What hour are you on now?

204...this is the time when SV starts skipping fucking panels.  Watch 204 will go to 250.  Been happening lately

[stormtracker]

and as shit is approaching, SV jumps from 210 to 252 when nothing is there, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

204...this is the time when SV starts skipping fucking panels.  Watch 204 will go to 250.  Been happening lately

So you get to be far ahead but with ICON levels of service? Lolol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, 204, moisture gathering in the middle of the country from IL straight to south with more over TX

That sounds good 

[stormtracker]

Ok, there's a rather large storm just to our south approaches, but the heavies, consoldiated storm looks to  slide just to our south depending on that fucking missing panel I'm waiting for

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Ai euro has plenty of snow chances through 240, gonna be a fun period i think. 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, slides just S and East of us.  Story of the winter

[stormtracker]

LET ME CLARIFY...we DO get some snow...just not in the heaviest batch

It's pretty much the story of how things have gone so far...looks good approaching us and just does the ENE scoot with the good stuff

[stormtracker]

DT and Bob Chll get wrecked tho to give u a sense of how close it is

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

LET ME CLARIFY...we DO get some snow...just not in the heaviest batch

It's pretty much the story of how things have gone so far...looks good approaching us and just does the ENE scoot with the good stuff

I cannot recall any winter when central and Southern VA scored first they didn't have a better winter to us relative to average. If anyone can remember one, shout it out.

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Gfs ice storm and euro slider, lets split the difference 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

LET ME CLARIFY...we DO get some snow...just not in the heaviest batch

It's pretty much the story of how things have gone so far...looks good approaching us and just does the ENE scoot with the good stuff

Kinda makes the NEXT weekend sound better if the pattern is relaxing...because perhaps that raises the chance things come further north?

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Gfs ice storm and euro slider, lets split the difference 

I'll grant you all a nice 4-6" storm while I'm gone the week of the 26th, but if there is a big dog I'm cursing every last one of you on this board!

[mitchnick]

Euro AI thru 288hrs lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, jayyy said:

So we need a la niño?

Just some good blocking as nacho said. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gfs ice storm and euro slider, lets split the difference 

GFS and Euro couldn't be anymore different 

[snowfan]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

LET ME CLARIFY...we DO get some snow...just not in the heaviest batch

It's pretty much the story of how things have gone so far...looks good approaching us and just does the ENE scoot with the good stuff

Put the tequila down

[mitchnick]

Just now, snowfan said:

Put the tequila down

I think he prefers to sip it.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'll grant you all a nice 4-6" storm while I'm gone the week of the 26th, but if there is a big dog I'm cursing every last one of you on this board!

I need the appetizer SECS on the 25th, and the HECS on the 30th.

[TJ3]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'll grant you all a nice 4-6" storm while I'm gone the week of the 26th, but if there is a big dog I'm cursing every last one of you on this board!

I’m gone that week so rest assured it unequivocally will happen. I’ve known this for months. You can blame me. I know I will. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

GFS and Euro couldn't be anymore different 

Yeah, details are up in the air, but both show a ss wave coming up into cold air nearby. That’s something we haven’t seen much of in these parts around here lately. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro AI puts all its eggs in the Jan 27-29  basket. Pretty sure most of us would take this look at this range.

Eta: just a triple phaser based on h5 vort, nothing to goon over

[mitchnick]

So there's nothing else on the Euro that's threat worthy?

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro AI puts all its eggs in the Jan 27-29  basket. Pretty sure most of us would take this look at this range

Tuck that baby off OC and bomb it out

[Bob Chill]

Been out of the loop for a bit and just got back from CO last night. Amazing trip even with the epic fail snow year they're having. Snowed when we got there and ski/snowmobile conditions ended up being perfect. Sad to be home lol. 

Y'all have the upcoming period well covered. We've been thru several periods like this since Jan 2011. Analogs are friendly with Jan 2011, Feb 2014/15, and even Jan 2003 showing up. Potential is there but long lead tracking won't work well imho. Each push of deep mid level cold will present opportunity. Identifying the correct shortwave progression beyond 5/6 days will be challenging like what we saw during the second halves of 14/15.

I dont think any of us will get skunked in the next 2-3 weeks and if it all reloads in Feb, climo+ snowfall is pretty likely. That can be worried about after we shovel something lol

 

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro AI puts all its eggs in the Jan 27-29  basket. Pretty sure most of us would take this look at this range.

Eta: just a triple phaser based on h5 vort, nothing to goon over

Euro AI has been the best all winter. Let’s hope it remains that way. 

[nj2va]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I need the appetizer SECS on the 25th, and the HECS on the 30th.

We’re out of town starting the 31st so this is acceptable…we ca push our flight back until later in the day on the 31st.