January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[T. August]

Not to be a negative weenie but GEFS is really not that good. Only 4ish members get appreciable snow to the cities. Heavily skewed by a few that drop 8-12”.

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know people hate threads for whatever reason but wonder if we need to split off the Saturday stuff. Getting confusing

Going to modify the useless thread for tonight into a combo Thursday-Saturday thread 

[rjvanals]

The GFS has been on a heater with digital snow recently 

[Eskimo Joe]

Clear west trend on the Canadian

 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just looking at the Euro since 12z yesterday it has trended closer to the coast by about 225 miles.  We will need at least that much additional adjustment to score.  I'm hoping for it all at once  at 12z.

[MDScienceTeacher]

34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Gonna wait until some consistent runs before even thinking about it.  This could be a blip

What the GFS is showing right now.. especially how it compares to the Euro and how far our we are and the recent trends seems awfully familiar.  I am trying really hard not to be negative.. but we need I swear I have seen this same thing play out like 30 times before.   Its almost as if the GFS has a in tendency to over do  trends in medium range and then correct back as we move toward game time.

I hope I am wrong.. and we finally win one!

 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Clear west trend on the Canadian

 

 

As you mentioned re the reading out in Reno, that is an extremely pumped ridge. Just need orientation and depth around the Mississippi and there could be something real. 

[Scraff]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably out for the Euro, got a meeting.  This mfers want me to do work at work.   But i know yall go it.  Might peek into the board to see whats doing.

Yep, same… although my schedule sadly includes beer-tasting “work.” It’s a tough life, but I shoulder the responsibility so others don’t have to. A real sacrifice. 

That said—LET’S GO SNOW! You people living in fantasy land, do your thing and bring it home. 

[Silver Meteor]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Big Meadows at around 3,400'. Almost got stuck there in an early "freak" snowstorm in 10/78. Crazy, crazy time getting off the mts in snow and sleet.

Son of a gun, I remember that! Was on Skyline Drive in Virginia heading north in my Olds 88 when a freak, violent snowstorm struck. With strong winds and cannon shots of thunder drifts built on the road so quickly I (and everyone else) got stuck. We had to wait for a snow plow to clear the drifts before we could move again. When finally getting down from the mountains saw it had only rained just below us. WILD! 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

What the GFS is showing right now.. especially how it compares to the Euro and how far our we are and the recent trends seems awfully familiar.  I am trying really hard not to be negative.. but we need I swear I have seen this same thing play out like 30 times before.   Its almost as if the GFS has a in tendency to over do  trends in medium range and then correct back as we move toward game time.

I hope I am wrong.. and we finally win one!

 

No, you're 100% correct to feel this way, because honestly Im on the same boat.  GFS was the only one last time that had us getting a snowstorm tomorrow a few days ago after the Euro dropped it.  Just red flags for me and its hard to buy in.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

No, you're 100% correct to feel this way, because honestly Im on the same boat.  GFS was the only one last time that had us getting a snowstorm tomorrow a few days ago after the Euro dropped it.  Just red flags for me and its hard to buy in.

But that’s cause they shifted north. Let the north trend continue lol. Gfs learned from last event and shifted north first… I wish 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI Euro not enthused

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Son of a gun, I remember that! Was on Skyline Drive in Virginia heading north in my Olds 88 when a freak, violent snowstorm struck. With strong winds and cannon shots of thunder drifts built on the road so quickly I (and everyone else) got stuck. We had to wait for a snow plow to clear the drifts before we could move again. When finally getting down from the mountains saw it had only rained just below us. WILD! 

It was fookin' great. We got stuck and my friend was driving his rear wheel drive and he told me to get out and tell the people coming up behind us to go around. This big old Winnebago came down the hill and lucky saw me and my friend's car in time and went around it. But it continued down the hill into the clouds (which we were in.) 

We stopped at the last overlook before Rt. 214? to Sperryville, which was below the cloud deck, and facing east we could see brightness in the distance while clouds were forming just below our elevation and moving through us at the overlook. By the time we got to Warrenton we heard the national news at the top of the hour say that over 1,000 people were stranded in Shenandoah National Park due to an early season snow storm. 

Memory of a lifetime.

EDIT: I meant to add that my friends car was a huge Ford Torino. The rear wheel drive made it a nightmare on those hills, but he got us off alive! Lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

AI Euro not enthused

We're all (or almost all) better off with the Ukie forecast.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

AI Euro not enthused

It’s been pretty deadly within 5 days so that a big caution flag I think 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No, you're 100% correct to feel this way, because honestly Im on the same boat.  GFS was the only one last time that had us getting a snowstorm tomorrow a few days ago after the Euro dropped it.  Just red flags for me and its hard to buy in.

Totally fair way to think. On the positive. This is how most of our storms go. They seems to jump into the mid range and get better as we close in. The big one with long leads are super rare. My gut likes this one especially for the lowlands and east. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

AI Euro not enthused

I think you could argue some meager improvements at h5 but agree otherwise. Mostly a noise shift

[bncho]

So far, Euro looks better at h5. Surface results TBD

[RevWarReenactor]

32 minutes ago, T. August said:

Not to be a negative weenie but GEFS is really not that good. Only 4ish members get appreciable snow to the cities. Heavily skewed by a few that drop 8-12”.

Red flag there. Last time we discarded the GEFS and believed the OP model didn't end well. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

There do appear to be some h5 changes afoot on the Euro, I'll leave it to the experts and not try to extrapolate. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

So far, Euro looks better at h5. Surface results TBD

Nadda.  Oh well

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nadda.  Oh well

Is it worse or better?

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

Is it worse or better?

Slightly better in that the trof s/w is wester than 6z.  But that's about it so far

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well let me rephrase.  Some light light stuff at 75, but nothing like GFS

Aren’t we looking at hr 100-ish?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Aren’t we looking at hr 100-ish?

Yes.   SV skip a few panels, but it's up to 114

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well let me rephrase.  Some light light stuff at 75, but nothing like GFS

Other thread chief 

[stormtracker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Other thread chief 

shit

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Other thread chief 

I would start a coup. 

[bncho]

Euro actually a tick SE with the precipitation lol