January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow--euro loves the SE Ridge in long range. Hopefully a blip

Might as well root for the SER.  Clearly not having it hasn't improved our snow chances.  Maybe it can pump some Gulf moisture and time that with a cold shot to actually give us a storm.  

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow--euro loves the SE Ridge in long range. Hopefully a blip

My poor 23rd-26th window isn't looking so hot at this range. Disappointing

[Ji]

the EURO AI looks nothing like the euro parent...and its been way better this season anyway. 12z euro AI looked tasty

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My poor 23rd-26th window isn't looking so hot at this range. Disappointing

i think its the 25-37th window. 23rd might be to early to get moisture and cold together

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My poor 23rd-26th window isn't looking so hot at this range. Disappointing

I liked the 23-28 window, and I thought you concurred. Its an op run, but that ridge is transient, then we end up with this-

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I liked the 23-28 window, and I thought you concurred. Its an op run, but that ridge is transient, then we end up with this-

Mostly trolling JI but I do think the 23-25th part may be too early, which is where I somewhat seriously staked my claim earlier. Was hoping for a 2016 10th anniversary storm. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

the EURO AI looks nothing like the euro parent...and its been way better this season anyway. 12z euro AI looked tasty

Fringed 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I liked the 23-28 window, and I thought you concurred. Its an op run, but that ridge is transient, then we end up with this-

you forgot to show him this part where it shows no chance for a storm

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mostly trolling JI but I do think the 23-25th part may be too early, which is where I somewhat seriously staked my claim earlier. Was hoping for a 2016 10th anniversary storm. 

GEFS still looks interesting for that window, although the boundary probably is a tad further north than we want verbatim.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month.  Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD.   One cautionary note:  the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out.  Need to see if it holds this time around.

Careful, I mentioned something along this line yesterday and we got 2 pages doom and gloom!

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

you forgot to show him this part where it shows no chance for a storm

The point was the SE ridge is transient. And its an op run at range. Ens means have been depicting a flat/suppressed ridge and a gradient look with colder air just to the north and avg to slight below for our area.

[WxUSAF]

Hoco deathband!

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Just saw on X that California is drought free for the first time in a while.  I guess the dryness went back east to visit relatives.

[Ji]

even Ben Noll thinks it could get cold and snowy for the last week of January. Thats like JB saying that any winter is going to be warm

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GEFS still looks interesting for that window, although the boundary probably is a tad further north than we want verbatim.

It will be interesting to see if that storm cuts or we stay on the cold side of the boundary, although recent trends make me think it's gonna cut. 

Plus side is that the Jan 18 one could be a sneaky threat for DC and east.

[CAPE]

EPS does have a bit more of a ridge than the GEFS for around the 24th- both have trended to more a trough out west initially before it shifts east and flattens the ridge.

Then we have the CMC ens with a trough and a bit of a storm- snow verbatim.

[Ji]

looks like EPS is going to lose an inch of the snow maps. If we are on the wrong side of the boundry it may be season over because you only get a 1-2 chances for southern stream a year with Nina

[Ji]

looks like its time to schedule a chase 

[Ji]

ill be danged....we actually went up in snowfall from 00z to 12z after all

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks like its time to schedule a chase 

Might I suggest far NNE. They don't have internet. 

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks like its time to schedule a chase 

I'm going back to Lacona. Life is to short for waiting on a 10 day unicorn. I've gotten interest from a couple others. I know a spot with 4 units in the same camp (sled camp) at 1400 elevation on the upslope Tug Hill. We could do a Mid Atlantic snow chase. Guaranteed snow. 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Might I suggest far NNE. They don't have internet. 

as long as you drive me there

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It will be interesting to see if that storm cuts or we stay on the cold side of the boundary, although recent trends make me think it's gonna cut. 

Plus side is that the Jan 18 one could be a sneaky threat for DC and east.

Depending on the model/specific run it looks like the 18th, or the 19-20th on the GFS/GEFS. Looks like there could be 2 pieces where neither does much of anything, maybe a dusting(Euro). Next few runs might be interesting- small chance this could end up better.

[bncho]

Now THAT is a really good pattern.

 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

Now THAT is a really good pattern.

 

for what? Dry and cold?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS 7 day temp and precip. anomalies and snow 21-28th.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS 7 day temp and precip. anomalies and snow 21-28th.

 

Could be two storms in that one period. First cutter through OHV, and then a second one to the south of us. You can see the two precip maxes across WV/PA and across VA/delmarva.