January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Cape storm still just misses with the good stuff

Misses to the NE as the low gets stronger, but we still get 2-4"

[paxpatriot]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

Nice hit for DC, I'll take this

I’m a romantic, but not liking that heart-shaped snow hole over my area. Again.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Cape storm still just misses with the good stuff

Still better, energy at 500 more south

[bncho]

The GFS taken verbatim is snow on snow.

[clskinsfan]

Weenie run. Especially for you guys to the east. Which seems to be the norm lately. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS looks pretty damn good for the CAPE storm

Yeah my storm is going to make a lot more people happy.

[clskinsfan]

I mean it's 6-10 for just about everyone over a 3 day span. No one is going to be pissed at that. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah my storm is going to make a lot more people happy.

Finally you embrace the name. The storm will trend much better now.

[bncho]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I mean it's 6-10 for just about everyone over a 3 day span. No one is going to be pissed at that. 

@Ji

[Solution Man]

Don’t conjure him up

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

@Ji

Are you crazy!? Shhhhhhh

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I agree with @stormtracker that an area wide 3-5 would be better than this narrow nonsense, but we have to take what we can get! Just happy it trended in our sub forum at all though. 

[CAPE]

Would like to see a little more dig/sharpness here, and a tad bit negative with the orientation. Plenty of time with this one.

[baltosquid]

GEFS for storm 1 looks to be continuing the trend to the op. Hope the stubbornly low snow means can come up a bit.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Finally you embrace the name. The storm will trend much better now.

I was told I had no choice by the man who runs this insane asylum. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean it's 6-10 for just about everyone over a 3 day span. No one is going to be pissed at that. 

Bonus for holiday weekend snow!

[Kevin Reilly]

Not quite there yet maybe, but is the time we say, “The vort is not yet been sampled correctly it’s still not in range”.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Would like to see a little more dig/sharpness here, and a tad bit negative with the orientation. Plenty of time with this one.

@aldie 22 so you are content with this outcome.. I'm hoping for a little better in your yard.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

@aldie 22 so you are content with this outcome.. I'm hoping for a little better in your yard.

I like all snow but yeah try and squeeze me out a few more flakes out this way 

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, ravensrule said:

He is like your ex wife. 

Oh he couldn't be that bad lol

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I like all snow but yeah try and squeeze me out a few more flakes out this way 

Well that was the point of my post(the one you weenied lol). As is, the surface low develops a bit too late and gets going off the coast at our latitude. Great for those folks to our northeast.

[dailylurker]

The end of the gfs run looks a little different this run lol. Definitely moved away from the euro.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

The end of the gfs run looks a little different this run lol. Definitely moved away from the euro.

Wait, we lost our 384 hr HECS? 

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wait, we lost our 384 hr HECS? 

Lol yup. It's a massive cutter with rain to Hudson Bay now. Who knows what the next run will show. 

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well that was the point of my post(the one you weenied lol). As is, the surface low develops a bit too late and gets going off the coast at our latitude. Great for those folks to our northeast.

It's snowing here right now 

[SnowenOutThere]

Back at uva for the rest of my tracking so I’ll get to do analysis on the big screen  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wait, we lost our 384 hr HECS? 

[mitchnick]

Last 4 runs of Gefs snowfall for period ending 186hrs on 12z run. Definite, slow improvement. 

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

It's still there. It's just now more of a severe thunderstorm threat lol. 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wait, we lost our 384 hr HECS? 

GfsAI has an overrunning event that starts as snow but goes to something else.

So the idea similar to last night's runs is still there.