Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Is that for Niñas in particular or for all Enso states? Nina's IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 MJO 7 is a transition phase which is usually a precursor to our biggest storms (but not always of course). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Is that for Niñas in particular or for all Enso states? It’s from cpc think it’s all. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 8-1-2 7 isn’t great generally 7 isn't the best phase, but I think it actually depends on the ENSO state. I think MJO 7-8-1 are better in Ninas, and MJO 8-1-2 are better in Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS....next 10 days are nada... RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 It's still early but I feel like it's probably time to punt the Jan 15 window. I guess if a storm perfectly bombed out at our latitude we could maybe get a paste bomb but its like 40 degrees in Montreal during the window. Not a good sign when the freezing line is north of the Adirondacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I haven't gone into details on how and when it falls, but suffice to say the Geps has the best snowfall for the 12z run. I put the link to Pivotal if you want to delve into it further. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026010712&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I haven't gone into details on how and when, but suffice to say the Geps has the best snowfall for the 12z run. I put the link to Pivotal if you want to delve into it further. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026010712&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Mostly in the last 7 days of the run. Best day is MLK day. Members are largely feast/famine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Interstate said: You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles Gotta' look for hope somewhere and the Gem did look best among the 12z bunch that ran through 2 weeks+. So what the heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 With so much NS energy flying around, nothing will be clear about the upper level progression along with the trough next week for some time. I'm not giving up on the 15-16th timeframe until the weekend - even some light clipper action a possibility in the scheme of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 32 minutes ago, Interstate said: You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormy said: I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.???? Americanwx psychiatrist we got one here for ya. Ji is patient zero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable. Can you imagine? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, stormy said: I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.???? I don't think you understand the purpose of ensemble models. Maybe just ignore them? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 34 minutes ago, Alfoman said: With so much NS energy flying around, nothing will be clear about the upper level progression along with the trough next week for some time. I'm not giving up on the 15-16th timeframe until the weekend - even some light clipper action a possibility in the scheme of things. I generally agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable. Can you imagine? No lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 57 minutes ago, Interstate said: You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles I believe GEPS outscore GEFS. I wonder why we pay as much attention to the GEFS as we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable. Can you imagine? Panic room open for some, jumpers are standing in the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable. Can you imagine? we got 1.5 inches lol. they get that in tughill in 44 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Anyway, trof looks a little sharper so far on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Ji said: we got 1.5 inches lol. they get that in tughill in 44 seconds We live on the coastal plain for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 hours ago, stormtracker said: I know @CAPE likes the period after this one, but I've preferred this one so far. I think there's something to it, but the problem is that something might be rain I haven't given up on mid month, but I just think the H5 look centered on the 20th is more impressive and conducive to a winter storm for our area- in particular the low heights in the 50-50 region vs anomalously high heights there for mid month. A 50-50 high doesnt work so well to keep surface HP in place to the north when a storm is moving in- that can work ok for places NW but even there it would probably be messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So the GFS is still a mess, but H5 is vastly different...seems like a positive change, but still a shitty surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We live on the coastal plain for the most part. And we aren't in NY state at elevation downwind of Lake Ontario. Hell of a comparison lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: I haven't given up on mid month, but I just think the H5 look centered on the 20th is more impressive and conducive to a winter storm for our area- in particular the low heights in the 50-50 region vs anomalously high heights there for mid month. A 50-50 high doesnt work so well to keep surface HP in place to the north when a storm is moving in- that can work ok for places NW but even there it would probably be messy. GFS might be trying to put some pieces into place for the period you like...let's see what she'll do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So the GFS is still a mess, but H5 is vastly different...seems like a positive change, but still a shitty surface positive change from what? sounds like 3 step backs from the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I am ready to call the Jan 20-21 the Ji storm. The Cape storm was Jan 15-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 It's beyond 240 so doesn't matter anyway since it's going to change, but the H5 map is def way different and more interesting than 12z so far for the Cape period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I am ready to call the Jan 20-21 the Ji storm. The Cape storm was Jan 15-16 Nah. But at least you recognize potential from what you see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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