January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is that for Niñas in particular or for all Enso states?

Nina's IIRC

[Terpeast]

MJO 7 is a transition phase which is usually a precursor to our biggest storms (but not always of course). 

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is that for Niñas in particular or for all Enso states?

It’s from cpc think it’s all.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

[bncho]

25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

8-1-2 7 isn’t great 

 

generally 7 isn't the best phase, but I think it actually depends on the ENSO state. I think MJO 7-8-1 are better in Ninas, and MJO 8-1-2 are better in Ninos

[frd]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS....next 10 days are nada...

RIP 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It's still early but I feel like it's probably time to punt the Jan 15 window.  I guess if a storm perfectly bombed out at our latitude we could maybe get a paste bomb but its like 40 degrees in Montreal during the window.  Not a good sign when the freezing line is north of the Adirondacks.  

[mitchnick]

I haven't gone into details on how and when it falls, but suffice to say the Geps has the best snowfall for the 12z run. I  put the link to Pivotal if you want to delve into it further.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026010712&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I haven't gone into details on how and when, but suffice to say the Geps has the best snowfall for the 12z run. I  put the link to Pivotal if you want to delve into it further.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026010712&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Mostly in the last 7 days of the run. Best day is MLK day. Members are largely feast/famine

[Interstate]

You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles

[mitchnick]

Just now, Interstate said:

You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles

Gotta' look for hope somewhere and the Gem did look best among the 12z bunch that ran through 2 weeks+. So what the heck.

[Alfoman]

With so much NS energy flying around, nothing will be clear about the upper level progression along with the trough next week for some time. I'm not giving up on the 15-16th timeframe until the weekend - even some light clipper action a possibility in the scheme of things. 

[stormy]

32 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles

I ask everyone a question...............................  Are we grasping at straws when we look at  Ensembles?????     The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days??????????    Are we losing  reality because of focus on ensembles.????     

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

I ask everyone a question...............................  Are we grasping at straws when we look at  Ensembles?????     The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days??????????    Are we losing  reality because of focus on ensembles.????     

Americanwx psychiatrist we got one here for ya. 
 

Ji is patient zero 

[stormtracker]

If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable.  Can you imagine?

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

I ask everyone a question...............................  Are we grasping at straws when we look at  Ensembles?????     The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days??????????    Are we losing  reality because of focus on ensembles.????     

I don't think you understand the purpose of ensemble models. Maybe just ignore them?

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

With so much NS energy flying around, nothing will be clear about the upper level progression along with the trough next week for some time. I'm not giving up on the 15-16th timeframe until the weekend - even some light clipper action a possibility in the scheme of things. 

I generally agree with this.

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable.  Can you imagine?

No lol

[cbmclean]

57 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You know we are grasping for straws when we the are looking at the CMC Ensembles

I believe GEPS outscore GEFS.  I wonder why we pay as much attention to the GEFS as we do.

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable.  Can you imagine?

Panic room open for some, jumpers are standing in the door. 

[Ji]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If we didn't get that early December snowfall, this place would be even more unreadable.  Can you imagine?

we got 1.5 inches lol. they get that in tughill in 44 seconds

[stormtracker]

Anyway, trof looks a little sharper so far on the GFS

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

we got 1.5 inches lol. they get that in tughill in 44 seconds

We live on the coastal plain for the most part.  

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I know @CAPE likes the period after this one, but I've preferred this one so far.  I think there's something to it, but the problem is that something might be rain    

I haven't given up on mid month, but I just think the H5 look centered on the 20th is more impressive and conducive to a winter storm for our area- in particular the low heights in the 50-50 region vs anomalously high heights there for mid month. A 50-50 high doesnt work so well to keep surface HP in place to the north when a storm is moving in- that can work ok for places NW but even there it would probably be messy.

[stormtracker]

So the GFS is still a mess, but H5 is vastly different...seems like a positive change, but still a shitty surface

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We live on the coastal plain for the most part.  

And we aren't in NY state at elevation downwind of Lake Ontario. Hell of a comparison lol

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I haven't given up on mid month, but I just think the H5 look centered on the 20th is more impressive and conducive to a winter storm for our area- in particular the low heights in the 50-50 region vs anomalously high heights there for mid month. A 50-50 high doesnt work so well to keep surface HP in place to the north when a storm is moving in- that can work ok for places NW but even there it would probably be messy.

GFS might be trying to put some pieces into place for the period you like...let's see what she'll do

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So the GFS is still a mess, but H5 is vastly different...seems like a positive change, but still a shitty surface

positive change from what? sounds like 3 step backs from the 6z gfs

[Ji]

I am ready to call the Jan 20-21 the Ji storm. The Cape storm was Jan 15-16

[stormtracker]

It's beyond 240 so doesn't matter anyway since it's going to change, but the H5 map is def way different and more interesting than 12z so far for the Cape period

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I am ready to call the Jan 20-21 the Ji storm. The Cape storm was Jan 15-16

Nah.  But at least you recognize potential from what you see.