January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

25 minutes ago, bncho said:

barney is coming to town!

Looks like the Blue Norther of 2021. Texas froze and If I remember correctly, The East never got “cold” during that outbreak. 

[pazzo83]

9 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Looks like the Blue Norther of 2021. Texas froze and If I remember correctly, The East never got “cold” during that outbreak. 

nope - DC was still in the midst of its multi-year streak where it didn't get below 23F.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z GFS ensembles starting getting cold around Jan 18th. Anything before that probably isn't going to do it. 

[Terpeast]

I'm starting to worry that the Jan 14-17 window is getting can kicked a bit since the 6-10 day eastern trough is getting less strong and the ridging over it is stronger. But the good news is MJO is starting to curve into 7 around day 15. So the pattern change after the 18th is probably real. Still not counting us out for the mid-Jan system, but there could be temp issues east of the BR.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO.  Rainy period on tap for Friday-Sunday.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO.  Rainy period on tap for Friday-Sunday.

Warm wet, cold dry. 

We need the rain though. 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO.  Rainy period on tap for Friday-Sunday.

Let's see if the Euro's rain predictions at this range are as overblown as it's snow predictions at this range. My guess is Yes!

[frd]

Canada really warms up end of the week due to the jet extension.  Some anomalies there over 30 degrees above normal. 

 

[Alfoman]

From a trough out west to this...four days of slow positive progress by mid-month

[frd]

LOL

 

[frd]

The ^ is near the time of the elongated PV. moving SE towards Hudson Bay. 

[frd]

A warm day this Friday

 

[frd]

Nice to see the AO staying negative. 

 

- EPO later 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, frd said:

Nice to see the AO staying negative. 

 

- EPO later 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That should help us later when the PNA goes negative after a brief spike into + territory.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO.  Rainy period on tap for Friday-Sunday.

Even though it's just rain this time, being able to get a region-wide soaker may not be a bad sign going forward...

[Pityflakes]

GFS is trying for the midweek thing next week.  Surface looks warm if but that southern energy wraps up earlier we have a shot from DC east at least.  Thereafter is def intriguing even though we don't have a storm to track yet.  PAC and temps are good.  Need blocking and southern stream energy. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Pityflakes said:

GFS is trying for the midweek thing next week.  Surface looks warm if but that southern energy wraps up earlier we have a shot from DC east at least.  Thereafter is def intriguing even though we don't have a storm to track yet.  PAC and temps are good.  Need blocking and southern stream energy. 

You know things are trending in the right direction when there isn’t 2 pages of cliff jumping this morning.

[anotherman]

47 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You know things are trending in the right direction when there isn’t 2 pages of cliff jumping this morning.

Give it time.  We still have 43 minutes.

[JenkinsJinkies]

20 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Give it time.  We still have 43 minutes.

They would’ve jumped by now.

[Scraff]

The CMC was trying even harder than the GFS for 1/15. Was close. Plenty of time for changes better or worse. 

[bncho]

Jan 18 onwards looks cold. Jan 14-15 IMO has the pieces but we need a larger +PNA ridge.

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

Jan 18 onwards looks cold. Jan 14-15 IMO has the pieces but we need a larger +PNA ridge.

The differences between the end of the Gfs and AIGfs runs are beyond laughable. 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The differences between the end of the Gfs and AIGfs runs are beyond laughable. 

not really...neither give us snow

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You know things are trending in the right direction when there isn’t 2 pages of cliff jumping this morning.

Having looked at the GFS...I wouldn't draw that conclusion. 

 

ETA - at the end of the run there's cold in Ulaanbaatar.   If I remember last year, that means something for us in February or March.  

[NorthArlington101]

If you are looking for a long shot window to try and track in the medium range - GEFS ens have a couple of members pop something next Monday/Tuesday behind the weekend system. It's been there on and off on a couple random ensemble runs. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If you are looking for a long shot window to try and track in the medium range - GEFS ens have a couple of members pop something next Monday/Tuesday behind the weekend system. Looks kinda interesting on the OP even if nothing is there on the surface. It's been there on and off on a couple random ensemble runs. 

Snow weenies will ignore the “long shot” part and then cliff jump when it disappears.

[stormy]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Even though it's just rain this time, being able to get a region-wide soaker may not be a bad sign going forward...

I'm from St. Louis..............  I want to measure it in my gauge.  A "soaker" must be more than an inch.  A quarter inch only lays the dust for about 36 hrs..

[bncho]

hmmmmmm

[bncho]

holy flop lmfao

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

holy flop lmfao

It's been uncanny how several threats that look so promising while looking at 500mb end up just like that. Gfs had one last night.