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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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I'm starting to worry that the Jan 14-17 window is getting can kicked a bit since the 6-10 day eastern trough is getting less strong and the ridging over it is stronger. But the good news is MJO is starting to curve into 7 around day 15. So the pattern change after the 18th is probably real. Still not counting us out for the mid-Jan system, but there could be temp issues east of the BR.

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1 minute ago, Pityflakes said:

GFS is trying for the midweek thing next week.  Surface looks warm if but that southern energy wraps up earlier we have a shot from DC east at least.  Thereafter is def intriguing even though we don't have a storm to track yet.  PAC and temps are good.  Need blocking and southern stream energy. 

You know things are trending in the right direction when there isn’t 2 pages of cliff jumping this morning.

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2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You know things are trending in the right direction when there isn’t 2 pages of cliff jumping this morning.

Having looked at the GFS...I wouldn't draw that conclusion. 

 

ETA - at the end of the run there's cold in Ulaanbaatar.   If I remember last year, that means something for us in February or March.  

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If you are looking for a long shot window to try and track in the medium range - GEFS ens have a couple of members pop something next Monday/Tuesday behind the weekend system. Looks kinda interesting on the OP even if nothing is there on the surface. It's been there on and off on a couple random ensemble runs. 

1768284000-w3H1LqvxX18.png

1768197600-eGSPe2Qx7qg.png

Snow weenies will ignore the “long shot” part and then cliff jump when it disappears.

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Even though it's just rain this time, being able to get a region-wide soaker may not be a bad sign going forward...

I'm from St. Louis..............  I want to measure it in my gauge.  A "soaker" must be more than an inch.  A quarter inch only lays the dust for about 36 hrs..

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